The School of Odds
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Millonarios v O'Higgins

Kickoff: 2026-05-26 22:00 UTC

Final: Millonarios 1–2 O'Higgins

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Millonarios (Local)

Prediction 61.82%1.62fair odd
EV -0.467%
Edge -0.290%
Kelly -0.765%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.54%61.64%61.77%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.521.531.6169.44%65.95%65.36%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

O'Higgins (Visit)

Prediction 15.57%6.42fair odd
EV -0.368%
Edge -0.058%
Kelly -0.068%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.00%15.56%15.48%17.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.255.825.756.4019.05%17.18%17.39%15.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.61%4.42fair odd
EV -2.77%
Edge -0.645%
Kelly -0.841%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.91%22.80%22.75%24.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.803.984.004.3026.32%25.11%25.00%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Millonarios (Local): 61.82%; O'Higgins (Visit): 15.57%; Draw: 22.61%. For O'Higgins (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.42. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 6.40, with an expected value of -0.368%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.71%EV -0.467%E -0.290%K -0.765%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 16.02%EV -5.04%E -0.826%K -0.988%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.27%EV -5.04%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000%2.3%2026-05-26 21:40
Coolbet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 62.06%EV -4.18%E -2.69%K -7.59%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.03%EV -0.368%E -0.058%K -0.068%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.90%EV -5.04%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-26 21:19
Unibet (NL)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.43%EV -4.18%E -2.69%K -7.59%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.15%EV -9.71%E -1.67%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -9.56%E -2.39%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-26 21:39
Casumo🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.43%EV -4.18%E -2.69%K -7.59%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.15%EV -9.71%E -1.67%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -9.56%E -2.39%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-26 21:40
Unibet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.43%EV -4.18%E -2.69%K -7.59%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.15%EV -9.71%E -1.67%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -9.56%E -2.39%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-26 21:39
Svenska Spel🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.43%EV -4.18%E -2.69%K -7.59%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.15%EV -9.71%E -1.67%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -9.56%E -2.39%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-26 21:39
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.54%EV -4.18%E -2.69%K -7.59%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.09%EV -15.94%E -2.95%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.37%EV -10.69%E -2.71%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-26 21:30
1xBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.72%EV -4.79%E -3.11%K -8.88%G +0.000%6.27I 15.95%NM 15.16%EV -2.39%E -0.381%K -0.454%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 23.12%EV -7.07%E -1.72%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-26 21:49
Pinnacle🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.59%EV -4.79%E -3.11%K -8.88%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.55%EV -5.04%E -0.826%K -0.988%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.86%EV -6.17%E -1.49%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-26 21:40
Bovada🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.00%EV -5.41%E -3.54%K -10.21%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -10.49%E -1.82%K -2.21%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -7.30%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-26 21:50
betfred_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.22%EV -5.41%E -3.54%K -10.21%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -14.38%E -2.61%K -3.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -9.56%E -2.39%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-26 21:20
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.01%EV -5.41%E -3.54%K -10.21%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.83%EV -9.71%E -1.67%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -14.08%E -3.71%K -5.03%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-26 21:49
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.93%EV -5.41%E -3.54%K -10.21%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -10.49%E -1.82%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -14.08%E -3.71%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-26 21:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.93%EV -5.41%E -3.54%K -10.21%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -10.49%E -1.82%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -14.08%E -3.71%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-26 21:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.93%EV -5.41%E -3.54%K -10.21%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -10.49%E -1.82%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -14.08%E -3.71%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-26 21:50
DraftKings🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.39%EV -6.65%E -4.40%K -13.04%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -6.60%E -1.10%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -2.77%E -0.645%K -0.841%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-26 21:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -7.27%E -4.84%K -14.53%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -6.60%E -1.10%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -5.04%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-26 21:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.77%EV -7.27%E -4.84%K -14.53%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.85%EV -10.49%E -1.82%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -11.82%E -3.03%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-26 21:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.77%EV -7.27%E -4.84%K -14.53%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.85%EV -10.49%E -1.82%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -11.82%E -3.03%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-26 21:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.77%EV -7.27%E -4.84%K -14.53%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.85%EV -10.49%E -1.82%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -11.82%E -3.03%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-26 21:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.77%EV -7.27%E -4.84%K -14.53%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.85%EV -10.49%E -1.82%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -11.82%E -3.03%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-26 21:39
LeoVegas🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.77%EV -7.27%E -4.84%K -14.53%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.85%EV -10.49%E -1.82%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -11.82%E -3.03%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-26 21:40
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.87%EV -7.27%E -4.84%K -14.53%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.11%EV -18.27%E -3.48%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -11.82%E -3.03%K -4.08%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-26 21:20
SportsBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -10.98%E -7.62%K -24.95%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -6.60%E -1.10%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -9.56%E -2.39%K -3.19%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-26 21:10
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -10.98%E -7.62%K -24.95%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -6.60%E -1.10%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -9.56%E -2.39%K -3.19%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-26 21:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.49%EV -10.98%E -7.62%K -24.95%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.81%EV -12.82%E -2.29%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.70%EV -11.82%E -3.03%K -4.08%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-26 21:39
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.37%EV -10.98%E -7.62%K -24.95%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.37%EV -10.49%E -1.82%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.26%EV -14.08%E -3.71%K -5.03%G +0.000%13.2%2026-05-26 21:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.47%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.00%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53%1.0%2026-05-26 21:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.47%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.00%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53%1.0%2026-05-26 21:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.47%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.00%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53%1.0%2026-05-26 21:50
Matchbook◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.47%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.00%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53%1.0%2026-05-26 21:50
Smarkets◎1.57I 63.69%NM 63.02%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.99%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.99%1.1%2026-05-26 21:40