Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Independiente Santa Fe v River Plate

2026-08-12 20:00 UTC — Copa Sudamericana

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

35%

30%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Independiente Santa Fe (Local)

Prediction 35.29%2.83fair odd

EV +0.580%

Edge +0.204%

Kelly +0.314%

Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

34.13%35.29%34.96%36.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.452.592.562.8540.82%38.56%39.06%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

River Plate (Visit)

Prediction 34.61%2.89fair odd

EV -4.47%

Edge -1.62%

Kelly -2.54%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

32.46%34.61%34.96%36.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.502.652.672.7640.00%37.66%37.38%36.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.09%3.32fair odd

EV -2.19%

Edge -0.675%

Kelly -0.974%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

29.73%30.09%30.08%31.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.803.023.003.2535.71%33.13%33.33%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Independiente Santa Fe (Local): 35.29%; River Plate (Visit): 34.61%; Draw: 30.09%. For Independiente Santa Fe (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.83. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 2.85, producing a positive expected value of +0.580%.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
1xBet	2.85I 35.09%NM 34.37%EV +0.580%E +0.204%K +0.314%G +0.002%	2.76I 36.23%NM 35.49%EV -4.47%E -1.62%K -2.54%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 30.14%EV -2.19%E -0.675%K -0.974%G +0.000%	2.1%	2026-07-31 13:07
Coolbet	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.60%EV -4.71%E -1.75%K -2.77%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -8.27%E -3.12%K -5.01%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -6.71%E -2.16%K -3.19%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-07-31 12:29
LeoVegas	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%EV -4.71%E -1.75%K -2.77%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 36.14%EV -11.73%E -4.60%K -7.57%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 29.73%EV -6.71%E -2.16%K -3.19%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-07-31 13:10
Codere (IT)	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.03%EV -6.48%E -2.44%K -3.93%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.03%EV -8.27%E -3.12%K -5.01%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -6.71%E -2.16%K -3.19%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-07-31 12:20
SportsBet	2.65I 37.74%NM 34.45%EV -6.48%E -2.44%K -3.93%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -10.00%E -3.85%K -6.25%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.72%E -3.24%K -4.86%G +0.000%	9.5%	2026-07-31 12:28
Paddy Power	2.62I 38.17%NM 34.71%EV -7.54%E -2.88%K -4.65%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 34.98%EV -10.00%E -3.85%K -6.25%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -9.72%E -3.24%K -4.86%G +0.000%	10.0%	2026-07-31 12:29
888sport	2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -11.77%E -4.71%K -7.85%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -6.54%E -2.42%K -3.85%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -9.72%E -3.24%K -4.86%G +0.000%	10.4%	2026-07-31 13:05
William Hill	2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -11.77%E -4.71%K -7.85%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -6.54%E -2.42%K -3.85%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -9.72%E -3.24%K -4.86%G +0.000%	10.4%	2026-07-31 13:04
888sport (SE)	2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -11.77%E -4.71%K -7.85%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -6.54%E -2.42%K -3.85%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -9.72%E -3.24%K -4.86%G +0.000%	10.4%	2026-07-31 13:05
Mr Green (SE)	2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -11.77%E -4.71%K -7.85%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -6.54%E -2.42%K -3.85%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -9.72%E -3.24%K -4.86%G +0.000%	10.4%	2026-07-31 13:04
Sky Bet	2.50I 40.00%NM 34.57%EV -11.77%E -4.71%K -7.85%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 34.57%EV -13.46%E -5.39%K -8.98%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 30.86%EV -15.74%E -5.62%K -8.74%G +0.000%	15.7%	2026-07-31 12:30
Coral	2.45I 40.82%NM 36.44%EV -13.54%E -5.53%K -9.34%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 32.46%EV -4.81%E -1.75%K -2.75%G +0.000%	2.87I 34.84%NM 31.10%EV -13.63%E -4.75%K -7.29%G +0.000%	12.0%	2026-07-31 11:04

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.