The School of Odds
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Grêmio v Palestino

Kickoff: 2026-05-21 00:00 UTC

Final: Grêmio 2–0 Palestino

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Grêmio (Local)

Prediction 68.67%1.46fair odd
EV -2.50%
Edge -1.76%
Kelly -5.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.68%68.42%69.13%69.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.351.361.4276.92%74.05%73.53%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Palestino (Visit)

Prediction 11.23%8.90fair odd
EV +1.11%
Edge +0.124%
Kelly +0.139%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 9.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.61%11.36%11.14%12.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.008.178.509.0014.29%12.24%11.76%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.10%4.98fair odd
EV -2.72%
Edge -0.561%
Kelly -0.707%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.52%20.22%19.73%21.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.334.554.504.8423.09%21.99%22.22%20.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Grêmio (Local): 68.67%; Palestino (Visit): 11.23%; Draw: 20.10%. For Palestino (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.90. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.11%.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 68.79%EV -2.50%E -1.76%K -5.94%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.85%EV +1.11%E +0.124%K +0.139%G +0.002%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.35%EV -3.52%E -0.733%K -0.926%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-20 23:20
Pinnacle🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.48%EV -6.62%E -4.86%K -18.38%G +0.000%8.59I 11.64%NM 11.00%EV -3.49%E -0.407%K -0.460%G +0.000%4.84I 20.66%NM 19.52%EV -2.72%E -0.561%K -0.707%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-20 23:50
DraftKings🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.13%EV -5.93%E -4.33%K -16.02%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.14%EV -4.50%E -0.530%K -0.600%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -3.52%E -0.733%K -0.926%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-20 23:40
Unibet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.54%EV -5.93%E -4.33%K -16.02%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.05%EV -4.50%E -0.530%K -0.600%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -7.54%E -1.64%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-20 23:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.30%EV -7.30%E -5.41%K -20.86%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.01%EV -4.50%E -0.530%K -0.600%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.70%EV -4.53%E -0.953%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-20 23:38
Casumo🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.70%EV -6.62%E -4.86%K -18.38%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -4.50%E -0.530%K -0.600%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -7.54%E -1.64%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-20 23:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.70%EV -6.62%E -4.86%K -18.38%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -4.50%E -0.530%K -0.600%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -7.54%E -1.64%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-20 23:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.70%EV -6.62%E -4.86%K -18.38%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -4.50%E -0.530%K -0.600%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -7.54%E -1.64%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-20 23:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.03%EV -9.36%E -7.09%K -29.26%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.72%EV -4.50%E -0.530%K -0.600%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -9.55%E -2.12%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-20 23:30
LeoVegas🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.03%EV -9.36%E -7.09%K -29.26%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.72%EV -4.50%E -0.530%K -0.600%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -9.55%E -2.12%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-20 23:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.03%EV -9.36%E -7.09%K -29.26%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.72%EV -4.50%E -0.530%K -0.600%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -9.55%E -2.12%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-20 23:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.03%EV -9.36%E -7.09%K -29.26%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.72%EV -4.50%E -0.530%K -0.600%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -9.55%E -2.12%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-20 23:30
SportsBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.66%EV -10.74%E -8.26%K -35.78%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.65%EV -4.50%E -0.530%K -0.600%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.69%EV -7.54%E -1.64%K -2.09%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-20 23:40
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.36%EV -10.74%E -8.26%K -35.78%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.61%EV -4.50%E -0.530%K -0.600%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -9.55%E -2.12%K -2.73%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-20 23:50
1xBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.90%EV -5.24%E -3.80%K -13.79%G +0.000%8.48I 11.79%NM 11.21%EV -4.73%E -0.558%K -0.632%G +0.000%4.78I 20.92%NM 19.89%EV -3.92%E -0.821%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-20 23:50
Coolbet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.11%EV -2.50%E -1.76%K -5.94%G +0.000%8.30I 12.05%NM 11.48%EV -6.75%E -0.813%K -0.925%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.41%EV -10.56%E -2.37%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-20 19:30
Bovada🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.52%EV -6.62%E -4.86%K -18.38%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV -10.12%E -1.27%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV -5.53%E -1.18%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-20 23:50
betfred_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.38%EV -6.62%E -4.86%K -18.38%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.45%EV -10.12%E -1.27%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.16%EV -12.97%E -2.99%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-20 23:00
NordicBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.51%EV -5.93%E -4.33%K -16.02%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.71%EV -11.24%E -1.42%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.78%EV -10.56%E -2.37%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-20 23:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.50%EV -10.74%E -8.26%K -35.78%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 11.72%EV -14.62%E -1.92%K -2.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.79%EV -9.55%E -2.12%K -2.73%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-20 23:40
William Hill🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.09%EV -6.62%E -4.86%K -18.38%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -15.74%E -2.10%K -2.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -11.56%E -2.63%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-20 23:40
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.09%EV -6.62%E -4.86%K -18.38%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -15.74%E -2.10%K -2.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -11.56%E -2.63%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-20 23:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.09%EV -6.62%E -4.86%K -18.38%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -15.74%E -2.10%K -2.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -11.56%E -2.63%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-20 23:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.09%EV -6.62%E -4.86%K -18.38%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -15.74%E -2.10%K -2.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -11.56%E -2.63%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-20 23:40
Sky Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 67.86%EV -10.74%E -8.26%K -35.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.76%EV -15.74%E -2.10%K -2.42%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.37%EV -12.97%E -2.99%K -3.89%G +0.000%13.4%2026-05-20 23:39
Coral🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.68%EV -7.30%E -5.41%K -20.86%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.86%EV -21.36%E -3.05%K -3.56%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.46%EV -11.56%E -2.63%K -3.40%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-20 23:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.39I 71.94%NM 71.44%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.46%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.10%0.7%2026-05-20 23:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.39I 71.94%NM 71.11%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.88%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.01%1.2%2026-05-20 23:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.39I 71.94%NM 71.11%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.88%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.01%1.2%2026-05-20 23:50
Matchbook◎1.39I 71.94%NM 71.11%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.88%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.01%1.2%2026-05-20 23:50
Smarkets◎1.38I 72.46%NM 70.99%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.80%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.21%2.1%2026-05-20 23:40