Language:English
Grêmio v Club Bolívar
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Grêmio (Local)
Prediction 64.10%1.56fair odd
EV -3.21%
Edge -2.12%
Kelly -6.29%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.51
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.76%64.15%64.51%66.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.431.441.5173.53%69.79%69.44%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Club Bolívar (Visit)
Prediction 14.47%6.91fair odd
EV +8.49%
Edge +1.13%
Kelly +1.31%
Growth +0.111%
assuming max odds 7.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.52%14.34%14.20%16.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.756.736.757.5017.39%14.87%14.81%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 21.43%4.67fair odd
EV -1.41%
Edge -0.306%
Kelly -0.391%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.53%21.51%21.28%22.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.284.304.6025.00%23.38%23.26%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Grêmio (Local): 64.10%; Club Bolívar (Visit): 14.47%; Draw: 21.43%. For Club Bolívar (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.91. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.49%.
Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 66.14%EV -6.41%E -4.39%K -13.94%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.87%EV +8.49%E +1.13%K +1.31%G +0.111% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.99%EV -1.41%E -0.306%K -0.391%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-07-30 21:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.20%EV -5.13%E -3.47%K -10.69%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.87%EV +8.49%E +1.13%K +1.31%G +0.111% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.93%EV -5.69%E -1.29%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-07-30 21:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.49%EV -7.69%E -5.34%K -17.49%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.57%EV +8.49%E +1.13%K +1.31%G +0.111% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.93%EV -7.84%E -1.82%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-30 21:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.65%EV -8.34%E -5.83%K -19.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV +8.49%E +1.13%K +1.31%G +0.111% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.83%EV -7.84%E -1.82%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-30 21:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.65%EV -8.34%E -5.83%K -19.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV +8.49%E +1.13%K +1.31%G +0.111% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.83%EV -7.84%E -1.82%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-30 21:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.65%EV -8.34%E -5.83%K -19.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV +8.49%E +1.13%K +1.31%G +0.111% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.83%EV -7.84%E -1.82%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-30 21:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.69%EV -9.62%E -6.82%K -23.46%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.52%EV +7.04%E +0.952%K +1.10%G +0.078% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.79%EV -8.91%E -2.10%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-30 21:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.28%EV -5.13%E -3.47%K -10.69%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.59%EV +1.26%E +0.180%K +0.210%G +0.003% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.13%EV -7.84%E -1.82%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-30 21:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.22%EV -10.26%E -7.33%K -25.65%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV +1.26%E +0.180%K +0.210%G +0.003% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -9.98%E -2.38%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-30 21:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.22%EV -10.26%E -7.33%K -25.65%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV +1.26%E +0.180%K +0.210%G +0.003% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -9.98%E -2.38%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-30 21:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.22%EV -10.26%E -7.33%K -25.65%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV +1.26%E +0.180%K +0.210%G +0.003% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -9.98%E -2.38%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-30 21:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.22%EV -10.26%E -7.33%K -25.65%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV +1.26%E +0.180%K +0.210%G +0.003% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -9.98%E -2.38%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-30 21:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.58%EV -7.69%E -5.34%K -17.49%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 13.89%EV -1.64%E -0.240%K -0.282%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.53%EV -1.41%E -0.306%K -0.391%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-30 21:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.23%EV -10.26%E -7.33%K -25.65%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.53%EV -2.36%E -0.349%K -0.410%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.24%EV -7.84%E -1.82%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-30 21:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -7.69%E -5.34%K -17.49%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -5.97%E -0.919%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -14.27%E -3.57%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-30 21:49 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -7.69%E -5.34%K -17.49%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -5.97%E -0.919%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -14.27%E -3.57%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-30 21:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -7.69%E -5.34%K -17.49%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -5.97%E -0.919%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -14.27%E -3.57%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-30 21:49 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -7.69%E -5.34%K -17.49%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -5.97%E -0.919%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -14.27%E -3.57%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-30 21:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.99%EV -10.26%E -7.33%K -25.65%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -5.97%E -0.919%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -7.19%E -1.66%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-07-30 21:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.23%EV -12.82%E -9.43%K -35.62%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.65%EV -5.97%E -0.919%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.12%EV -9.98%E -2.38%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-07-30 21:49 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.53%EV -10.26%E -7.33%K -25.65%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.23%EV -9.59%E -1.53%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -14.27%E -3.57%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-07-30 21:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.47%EV -5.13%E -3.47%K -10.69%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -13.21%E -2.20%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -3.55%E -0.789%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-30 21:55 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.63%EV -5.77%E -3.93%K -12.28%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV -13.21%E -2.20%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -3.55%E -0.789%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-30 21:54 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.17%EV -5.13%E -3.47%K -10.69%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -13.21%E -2.20%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -5.69%E -1.29%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-30 21:53 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 64.30%EV -10.90%E -7.84%K -27.95%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.15%EV -14.65%E -2.48%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.55%EV -6.77%E -1.56%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-07-30 21:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.77%EV -3.21%E -2.12%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 5.78I 17.30%NM 16.40%EV -16.39%E -2.84%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.83%EV -2.48%E -0.545%K -0.698%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-30 21:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.76%EV -7.69%E -5.34%K -17.49%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.72%EV -16.82%E -2.93%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -9.98%E -2.38%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-07-30 21:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.51I 66.23%NM 65.92% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.44% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.64% | 0.5% | 2026-07-30 21:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.51I 66.23%NM 65.92% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.44% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.64% | 0.5% | 2026-07-30 21:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.03% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 13.01% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.97% | 1.2% | 2026-07-30 21:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 65.86% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.67% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.48% | 1.2% | 2026-07-30 21:55 |
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