The School of Odds

Grêmio v Club Bolívar

2026-07-30 22:00 UTC — Copa Sudamericana

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Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Grêmio (Local)

Prediction 71.30%1.40fair odd
EV -3.74%
Edge -2.77%
Kelly -10.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.95%71.31%71.30%72.45%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.251.291.301.3580%77%77%74%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Club Bolívar (Visit)

Prediction 10.59%9.44fair odd
EV +12.26%
Edge +1.16%
Kelly +1.28%
Growth +0.157%

assuming max odds 10.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.23%10.53%10.59%12.31%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
7.008.758.9010.6014%11%11%9%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 18.11%5.52fair odd
EV +0.506%
Edge +0.091%
Kelly +0.111%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 5.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.18%18.17%18.11%20.40%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.404.965.005.5523%20%20%18%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet1.35I 74.07%NM 72.45%EV -3.74%E -2.77%K -10.70%G +0.000%10.60I 9.43%NM 9.23%EV +12.26%E +1.16%K +1.28%G +0.157%5.34I 18.73%NM 18.32%EV -3.30%E -0.617%K -0.760%G +0.000%2.2%2026-07-24 12:00
NordicBet1.32I 75.76%NM 70.28%EV -5.88%E -4.46%K -18.39%G +0.000%9.30I 10.75%NM 9.98%EV -1.51%E -0.162%K -0.182%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.74%EV -14.89%E -3.17%K -4.02%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-24 11:25
Coolbet1.32I 75.76%NM 72.23%EV -5.88%E -4.46%K -18.39%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.59%EV -4.69%E -0.521%K -0.586%G +0.000%5.55I 18.02%NM 17.18%EV +0.506%E +0.091%K +0.111%G +0.001%4.9%2026-07-24 11:10
LeoVegas1.30I 76.92%NM 71.71%EV -7.31%E -5.62%K -24.36%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -4.69%E -0.521%K -0.586%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.93%EV -5.83%E -1.12%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-24 11:24
888sport (SE)1.29I 77.52%NM 71.36%EV -8.02%E -6.22%K -27.66%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -4.69%E -0.521%K -0.586%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.41%EV -9.45%E -1.89%K -2.36%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-24 11:50
Mr Green (SE)1.29I 77.52%NM 71.36%EV -8.02%E -6.22%K -27.66%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -4.69%E -0.521%K -0.586%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.41%EV -9.45%E -1.89%K -2.36%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-24 11:50
888sport1.30I 76.92%NM 70.52%EV -7.31%E -5.62%K -24.36%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -4.69%E -0.521%K -0.586%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.30%EV -13.98%E -2.94%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-24 13:30
William Hill1.30I 76.92%NM 70.52%EV -7.31%E -5.62%K -24.36%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -4.69%E -0.521%K -0.586%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.30%EV -13.98%E -2.94%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-24 13:30
Codere (IT)1.30I 76.92%NM 71.54%EV -7.31%E -5.62%K -24.36%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.57%EV -6.80%E -0.773%K -0.872%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.89%EV -5.83%E -1.12%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-24 11:24
SportsBet1.27I 78.74%NM 72.21%EV -9.45%E -7.44%K -34.99%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.48%EV -7.33%E -0.838%K -0.946%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.30%EV -4.02%E -0.759%K -0.935%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-24 11:09
betfred_uk1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -7.31%E -5.62%K -24.36%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -9.98%E -1.17%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -9.45%E -1.89%K -2.36%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-24 11:08
Unibet (UK)1.29I 77.52%NM 70.93%EV -8.02%E -6.22%K -27.66%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.77%EV -9.98%E -1.17%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -9.45%E -1.89%K -2.36%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-24 11:24
Coral1.30I 76.92%NM 69.04%EV -7.31%E -5.62%K -24.36%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.56%EV -9.98%E -1.17%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.40%EV -20.32%E -4.62%K -5.98%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-24 13:30
Paddy Power1.25I 80.00%NM 71.58%EV -10.87%E -8.70%K -43.50%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV -9.98%E -1.17%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.89%EV -9.45%E -1.89%K -2.36%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-24 11:25
Unibet (FR)1.25I 80.00%NM 69.48%EV -10.87%E -8.70%K -43.50%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 11.43%EV -19.51%E -2.57%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.09%EV -17.60%E -3.87%K -4.96%G +0.000%15.1%2026-07-24 11:24
Sky Bet1.25I 80.00%NM 68.95%EV -10.87%E -8.70%K -43.50%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.31%EV -25.87%E -3.70%K -4.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.74%EV -16.70%E -3.63%K -4.64%G +0.000%16.0%2026-07-24 11:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.26I 79.37%NM 69.95%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.30%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.75%13.5%2026-07-24 11:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-07-24 12:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-07-24 12:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-07-24 12:40