L’École des cotes

Grêmio v Club Bolívar

2026-07-30 22:00 UTC — Copa Sudamericana

Résultat du match

26 opérateurs (4 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Grêmio (Local)

Prévision 69.20%1.45cote équitable
EV -1.05%
Avantage -0.735%
Kelly -2.44%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.43

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
66.30%68.89%69.20%71.91%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.301.351.351.4376.92%74.10%74.07%69.93%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Club Bolívar (Visiteur)

Prévision 11.61%8.61cote équitable
EV +10.90%
Avantage +1.14%
Kelly +1.27%
Croissance +0.139%

avec la cote maximale 9.55

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
10.24%11.81%11.61%13.79%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
6.257.607.509.5516.00%13.16%13.33%10.47%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 19.19%5.21cote équitable
EV +5.18%
Avantage +0.944%
Kelly +1.16%
Croissance +0.060%

avec la cote maximale 5.48

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
17.85%19.30%19.19%20.69%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.304.764.805.4823.26%21.00%20.83%18.25%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (26 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
1xBet1.36I 73.53%NM 71.91%EV -5.89%E -4.33%K -16.37%G +0.000%9.55I 10.47%NM 10.24%EV +10.90%E +1.14%K +1.27%G +0.139%5.48I 18.25%NM 17.85%EV +5.18%E +0.944%K +1.16%G +0.060%2.2%2026-07-25 20:39
NordicBet1.35I 74.07%NM 68.21%EV -6.59%E -4.88%K -18.82%G +0.000%8.30I 12.05%NM 11.09%EV -3.62%E -0.436%K -0.496%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.69%EV -14.59%E -3.28%K -4.23%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-26 01:34
Pinnacle1.34I 74.63%NM 69.40%EV -7.28%E -5.43%K -21.41%G +0.000%8.03I 12.45%NM 11.58%EV -6.75%E -0.841%K -0.961%G +0.000%4.89I 20.45%NM 19.02%EV -6.15%E -1.26%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-25 17:50
LeoVegas1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.59%E -4.88%K -18.82%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV -7.10%E -0.888%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.40%EV -7.88%E -1.64%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-25 20:34
Unibet (UK)1.35I 74.07%NM 68.39%EV -6.59%E -4.88%K -18.82%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.54%EV -7.10%E -0.888%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -11.71%E -2.55%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-25 22:04
888sport1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.97%E -5.99%K -24.15%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -7.10%E -0.888%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -7.88%E -1.64%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-25 19:00
William Hill1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.97%E -5.99%K -24.15%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -7.10%E -0.888%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -7.88%E -1.64%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-25 19:00
888sport (SE)1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.97%E -5.99%K -24.15%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -7.10%E -0.888%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -7.88%E -1.64%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-25 18:59
Mr Green (SE)1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.97%E -5.99%K -24.15%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -7.10%E -0.888%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -7.88%E -1.64%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-25 19:00
Bovada1.34I 74.63%NM 69.40%EV -7.28%E -5.43%K -21.41%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.00%EV -10.00%E -1.29%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -4.04%E -0.807%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-25 19:00
SportsBet1.31I 76.34%NM 69.62%EV -9.35%E -7.14%K -30.18%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.77%EV -10.00%E -1.29%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.61%EV -5.96%E -1.22%K -1.53%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-25 20:34
ATG (SE)1.43I 69.93%NM 67.45%EV -1.05%E -0.735%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.86%EV -12.91%E -1.72%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.69%EV -5.96%E -1.22%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-25 09:35
Unibet1.40I 71.43%NM 67.64%EV -3.13%E -2.23%K -7.82%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.63%EV -12.91%E -1.72%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -7.88%E -1.64%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-25 09:35
Unibet (NL)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.64%EV -3.13%E -2.23%K -7.82%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.63%EV -12.91%E -1.72%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -7.88%E -1.64%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-25 09:35
Casumo1.40I 71.43%NM 67.64%EV -3.13%E -2.23%K -7.82%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.63%EV -12.91%E -1.72%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -7.88%E -1.64%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-25 09:35
Svenska Spel1.40I 71.43%NM 67.64%EV -3.13%E -2.23%K -7.82%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.63%EV -12.91%E -1.72%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -7.88%E -1.64%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-25 09:35
Coolbet1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.51%E -3.27%K -11.87%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV -12.91%E -1.72%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.90%EV -4.04%E -0.807%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-24 14:05
betfred_uk1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.97%E -5.99%K -24.15%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -12.91%E -1.72%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -4.04%E -0.807%K -1.01%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-25 20:35
Paddy Power1.30I 76.92%NM 69.11%EV -10.05%E -7.73%K -33.49%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.98%EV -12.91%E -1.72%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.91%EV -8.83%E -1.86%K -2.36%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-25 20:34
Unibet (FR)1.30I 76.92%NM 67.66%EV -10.05%E -7.73%K -33.49%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 11.89%EV -14.07%E -1.90%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.46%EV -17.47%E -4.06%K -5.29%G +0.000%13.7%2026-07-25 19:55
Virgin Bet1.35I 74.07%NM 67.28%EV -6.59%E -4.88%K -18.82%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -18.71%E -2.67%K -3.12%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -11.71%E -2.55%K -3.25%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-25 09:35
LiveScore Bet1.35I 74.07%NM 67.28%EV -6.59%E -4.88%K -18.82%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -18.71%E -2.67%K -3.12%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -11.71%E -2.55%K -3.25%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-25 09:35
PMU (FR)1.35I 74.07%NM 67.28%EV -6.59%E -4.88%K -18.82%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -18.71%E -2.67%K -3.12%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -11.71%E -2.55%K -3.25%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-25 09:35
LeoVegas (SE)1.35I 74.07%NM 67.28%EV -6.59%E -4.88%K -18.82%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -18.71%E -2.67%K -3.12%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -11.71%E -2.55%K -3.25%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-25 09:35
Coral1.33I 75.19%NM 66.95%EV -7.97%E -5.99%K -24.15%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.70%EV -24.52%E -3.77%K -4.46%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.36%EV -11.71%E -2.55%K -3.25%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-26 01:05
Sky Bet1.30I 76.92%NM 66.30%EV -10.05%E -7.73%K -33.49%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 13.79%EV -27.42%E -4.39%K -5.22%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 19.91%EV -16.90%E -3.90%K -5.07%G +0.000%16.0%2026-07-25 20:34
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (4)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Smarkets1.40I 71.43%NM 70.25%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.46%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.28%1.7%2026-07-25 22:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.33I 75.19%NM 71.72%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.94%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.34%4.8%2026-07-25 22:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.33I 75.19%NM 71.72%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.94%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.34%4.8%2026-07-25 22:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.33I 75.19%NM 71.72%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.94%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.34%4.8%2026-07-25 21:15
Arbitrage (1 combinaison) +1.37%ATG (SE) 1.43 (70.9%) / 1xBet 9.55 (10.6%) / 1xBet 5.48 (18.5%)Afficher les détails
Grêmio (Local)Club Bolívar (Visiteur)Match nulMarge
ATG (SE) 1.43 (70.9%)1xBet 9.55 (10.6%)1xBet 5.48 (18.5%)+1.37%