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Club Independiente Petrolero v Botafogo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Club Independiente Petrolero (Local)
Prediction 7.07%14.14fair odd
EV +13.13%
Edge +0.821%
Kelly +0.875%
Growth +0.115%
assuming max odds 16.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.95%6.97%7.17%9.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.0012.9313.0016.0011.11%7.73%7.69%6.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Botafogo (Visit)
Prediction 78.65%1.27fair odd
EV -4.83%
Edge -3.99%
Kelly -23.00%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.21
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.18%78.72%78.51%80.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.171.181.2189.29%85.16%84.75%82.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 14.28%7.00fair odd
EV +7.08%
Edge +0.943%
Kelly +1.09%
Growth +0.077%
assuming max odds 7.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.99%14.31%14.33%15.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.906.566.507.5016.95%15.24%15.38%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Club Independiente Petrolero (Local): 7.07%; Botafogo (Visit): 78.65%; Draw: 14.28%. For Club Independiente Petrolero (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 14.14. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 16.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.13%.
Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.95%EV +13.13%E +0.821%K +0.875%G +0.115% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.72%EV -7.19%E -6.09%K -39.94%G +0.000% | 7.15I 13.99%NM 13.32%EV +2.08%E +0.291%K +0.338%G +0.007% | 5.0% | 2026-05-19 07:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.49%EV +6.06%E +0.404%K +0.433%G +0.026% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 80.52%EV -4.83%E -3.99%K -23.00%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.99%EV +7.08%E +0.943%K +1.09%G +0.077% | 2.6% | 2026-05-20 23:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.68%EV -1.01%E -0.072%K -0.078%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.95%EV -7.98%E -6.82%K -46.92%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -0.063%E -0.009%K -0.011%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-20 23:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.68%EV -1.01%E -0.072%K -0.078%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.95%EV -7.98%E -6.82%K -46.92%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -0.063%E -0.009%K -0.011%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-20 23:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.68%EV -1.01%E -0.072%K -0.078%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.95%EV -7.98%E -6.82%K -46.92%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -0.063%E -0.009%K -0.011%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-20 23:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.68%EV -1.01%E -0.072%K -0.078%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.95%EV -7.98%E -6.82%K -46.92%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -0.063%E -0.009%K -0.011%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-20 23:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.48%EV -1.01%E -0.072%K -0.078%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 79.57%EV -10.34%E -9.07%K -73.83%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.95%EV -7.20%E -1.11%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-20 22:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 13.75I 7.27%NM 6.77%EV -2.78%E -0.202%K -0.218%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.24%EV -6.40%E -5.38%K -33.70%G +0.000% | 6.21I 16.10%NM 14.99%EV -11.34%E -1.83%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-20 23:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.30%EV -8.08%E -0.622%K -0.674%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.13%EV -5.62%E -4.68%K -28.08%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.57%EV -0.063%E -0.009%K -0.011%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-20 23:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.26%EV -8.08%E -0.622%K -0.674%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.27%EV -6.40%E -5.38%K -33.70%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -0.063%E -0.009%K -0.011%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-20 23:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -8.08%E -0.622%K -0.674%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.38%EV -5.62%E -4.68%K -28.08%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -14.34%E -2.39%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-20 23:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -8.08%E -0.622%K -0.674%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.38%EV -5.62%E -4.68%K -28.08%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -14.34%E -2.39%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-20 23:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -8.08%E -0.622%K -0.674%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.38%EV -5.62%E -4.68%K -28.08%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -14.34%E -2.39%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-20 23:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -8.08%E -0.622%K -0.674%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.38%EV -5.62%E -4.68%K -28.08%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -14.34%E -2.39%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-20 23:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.98%EV -8.08%E -0.622%K -0.674%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 79.58%EV -10.34%E -9.07%K -73.83%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.44%EV -3.63%E -0.538%K -0.632%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-20 23:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.98%EV -8.08%E -0.622%K -0.674%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 79.58%EV -10.34%E -9.07%K -73.83%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.44%EV -3.63%E -0.538%K -0.632%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-20 23:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.98%EV -8.08%E -0.622%K -0.674%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 79.58%EV -10.34%E -9.07%K -73.83%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.44%EV -3.63%E -0.538%K -0.632%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-20 23:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.98%EV -8.08%E -0.622%K -0.674%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 79.58%EV -10.34%E -9.07%K -73.83%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.44%EV -3.63%E -0.538%K -0.632%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-20 23:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.85%EV -8.08%E -0.622%K -0.674%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 79.46%EV -11.91%E -10.63%K -99.24%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.69%EV -7.20%E -1.11%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-20 22:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.44%EV -11.62%E -0.929%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.81%EV -4.83%E -3.99%K -23.00%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.75%EV -15.77%E -2.67%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-20 23:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -15.15%E -1.26%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.84%EV -5.62%E -4.68%K -28.08%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -7.20%E -1.11%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-20 23:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.73%EV -15.15%E -1.26%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.99%EV -6.40%E -5.38%K -33.70%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.28%EV -7.20%E -1.11%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-20 23:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.44%EV -15.15%E -1.26%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 78.28%EV -10.34%E -9.07%K -73.83%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.28%EV -10.77%E -1.72%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-20 22:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -22.22%E -2.02%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.39%EV -5.62%E -4.68%K -28.08%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -14.34%E -2.39%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-20 23:49 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.76%EV -29.29%E -2.93%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 76.87%EV -10.34%E -9.07%K -73.83%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.37%EV -12.91%E -2.12%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-05-20 23:49 |
| Coral🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.99%EV -36.36%E -4.04%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.18%EV -7.19%E -6.09%K -39.94%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.83%EV -7.20%E -1.11%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-20 22:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 17.50I 5.71%NM 5.65% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.00% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.35% | 1.2% | 2026-05-20 23:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.48% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.54% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.98% | 1.4% | 2026-05-20 23:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.48% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.54% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.98% | 1.4% | 2026-05-20 23:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.46% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.25% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.29% | 1.7% | 2026-05-20 23:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 17.51I 5.71%NM 5.55% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.96% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.49% | 2.9% | 2026-05-20 23:50 |