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Caracas FC v Club Independiente Petrolero
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Caracas FC (Local)
Prediction 58.39%1.71fair odd
EV -0.745%
Edge -0.438%
Kelly -1.06%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.79%59.36%58.39%63.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.551.561.7069.44%64.66%64.10%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Club Independiente Petrolero (Visit)
Prediction 15.74%6.35fair odd
EV +18.03%
Edge +2.40%
Kelly +2.77%
Growth +0.500%
assuming max odds 7.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.02%15.38%15.74%17.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.106.196.007.5019.61%16.17%16.67%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.88%3.86fair odd
EV +7.39%
Edge +1.78%
Kelly +2.35%
Growth +0.173%
assuming max odds 4.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.98%25.26%25.88%26.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.713.654.1529.41%26.99%27.40%24.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Caracas FC (Local): 58.39%; Club Independiente Petrolero (Visit): 15.74%; Draw: 25.88%. For Club Independiente Petrolero (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.35. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +18.03%.
Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.58%EV -8.92%E -5.72%K -15.93%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 13.02%EV +18.03%E +2.40%K +2.77%G +0.500% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.41%EV +3.51%E +0.877%K +1.17%G +0.041% | 2.4% | 2026-04-15 21:54 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.58%EV -12.42%E -8.28%K -24.84%G +0.000% | 7.10I 14.08%NM 13.43%EV +11.74%E +1.65%K +1.92%G +0.226% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.98%EV +7.39%E +1.78%K +2.35%G +0.173% | 4.8% | 2026-04-14 18:01 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.54%EV -12.42%E -8.28%K -24.84%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.40%EV +10.17%E +1.45%K +1.69%G +0.172% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV +0.919%E +0.236%K +0.317%G +0.003% | 6.6% | 2026-04-15 21:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.54%EV -12.42%E -8.28%K -24.84%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.40%EV +10.17%E +1.45%K +1.69%G +0.172% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV +0.919%E +0.236%K +0.317%G +0.003% | 6.6% | 2026-04-15 21:54 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.54%EV -12.42%E -8.28%K -24.84%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.40%EV +10.17%E +1.45%K +1.69%G +0.172% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV +0.919%E +0.236%K +0.317%G +0.003% | 6.6% | 2026-04-15 21:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.54%EV -12.42%E -8.28%K -24.84%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.40%EV +10.17%E +1.45%K +1.69%G +0.172% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV +0.919%E +0.236%K +0.317%G +0.003% | 6.6% | 2026-04-15 21:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.62%EV -14.17%E -9.64%K -30.16%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV +10.17%E +1.45%K +1.69%G +0.172% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.23%EV -1.67%E -0.439%K -0.596%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-15 21:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.64%EV -15.34%E -10.58%K -34.09%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.46%EV +6.23%E +0.923%K +1.08%G +0.068% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -1.67%E -0.439%K -0.596%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-15 21:54 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.80%EV -15.93%E -11.06%K -36.19%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.40%EV +6.23%E +0.923%K +1.08%G +0.068% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.80%EV -1.67%E -0.439%K -0.596%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-04-15 21:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.80%EV -15.93%E -11.06%K -36.19%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.40%EV +6.23%E +0.923%K +1.08%G +0.068% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.80%EV -1.67%E -0.439%K -0.596%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-04-15 21:54 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.87%EV -5.42%E -3.34%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 6.02I 16.61%NM 15.57%EV -5.26%E -0.873%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.53I 28.33%NM 26.56%EV -8.66%E -2.45%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-15 21:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.35%EV -5.42%E -3.34%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.75%EV -5.57%E -0.929%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.90%EV -5.55%E -1.52%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-15 21:49 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.10%EV -10.67%E -6.97%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.07%EV -5.57%E -0.929%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -9.43%E -2.69%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-04-15 21:39 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.03%EV -0.745%E -0.438%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 5.69I 17.57%NM 17.04%EV -10.45%E -1.84%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.92%EV -3.22%E -0.861%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-15 21:54 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.70%EV -5.42%E -3.34%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.69%EV -11.87%E -2.12%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.61%EV -5.55%E -1.52%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-15 21:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.63%EV -6.58%E -4.11%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -13.44%E -2.44%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -6.84%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-15 21:54 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.63%EV -6.58%E -4.11%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -13.44%E -2.44%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -6.84%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-15 21:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.63%EV -6.58%E -4.11%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -13.44%E -2.44%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -6.84%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-15 21:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.63%EV -6.58%E -4.11%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -13.44%E -2.44%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -6.84%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-15 21:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.67%EV -8.33%E -5.31%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.46%EV -13.44%E -2.44%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -9.43%E -2.69%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-15 21:44 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.22%EV -8.33%E -5.31%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.11%EV -17.38%E -3.31%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.67%EV -9.43%E -2.69%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-15 21:34 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.79%EV -8.33%E -5.31%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.98%EV -17.38%E -3.31%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.22%EV -12.02%E -3.54%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-04-15 21:44 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 57.46%EV -11.84%E -7.84%K -23.21%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.01%EV -19.74%E -3.87%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.52%EV -12.02%E -3.54%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 15.2% | 2026-04-15 21:44 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (2)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.09% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.93% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.99% | 1.3% | 2026-04-15 21:54 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.87% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.20% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.93% | 2.9% | 2026-04-15 21:54 |