The School of Odds
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Carabobo FC v River Plate

Kickoff: 2026-05-08 00:30 UTC

Final: Carabobo FC 1–2 River Plate

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Carabobo FC (Local)

Prediction 22.10%4.52fair odd
EV +3.89%
Edge +0.828%
Kelly +1.05%
Growth +0.041%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.47%22.12%22.01%24.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.264.204.7026.67%23.49%23.81%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

River Plate (Visit)

Prediction 47.27%2.12fair odd
EV -4.52%
Edge -2.24%
Kelly -4.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.68%47.16%47.32%50.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.821.921.912.0254.95%52.02%52.36%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.63%3.26fair odd
EV +1.07%
Edge +0.326%
Kelly +0.467%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.77%30.72%30.67%32.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.063.053.3035.71%32.71%32.79%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carabobo FC (Local): 22.10%; River Plate (Visit): 47.27%; Draw: 30.63%. For Carabobo FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.52. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.89%.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.63%EV +3.89%E +0.828%K +1.05%G +0.041%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.98%EV -8.30%E -4.28%K -8.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.38%EV +1.07%E +0.326%K +0.467%G +0.005%3.1%2026-05-08 00:04
Unibet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.53%EV +1.68%E +0.365%K +0.467%G +0.008%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.96%EV -10.67%E -5.64%K -11.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -1.99%E -0.621%K -0.904%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-08 00:05
Unibet (NL)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV +1.68%E +0.365%K +0.467%G +0.008%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.10%EV -11.14%E -5.92%K -12.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -1.99%E -0.621%K -0.904%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-08 00:05
Casumo🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV +1.68%E +0.365%K +0.467%G +0.008%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.10%EV -11.14%E -5.92%K -12.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -1.99%E -0.621%K -0.904%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-08 00:05
Svenska Spel🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV +1.68%E +0.365%K +0.467%G +0.008%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.10%EV -11.14%E -5.92%K -12.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -1.99%E -0.621%K -0.904%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-08 00:05
Pinnacle🎯4.54I 22.03%NM 20.96%EV +0.355%E +0.078%K +0.100%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.11%EV -4.52%E -2.24%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.93%EV -8.73%E -2.93%K -4.41%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-08 00:25
Virgin Bet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.67%EV -2.74%E -0.623%K -0.806%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.98%EV -13.97%E -7.68%K -17.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.34%EV -5.05%E -1.63%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-08 00:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.67%EV -2.74%E -0.623%K -0.806%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.98%EV -13.97%E -7.68%K -17.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.34%EV -5.05%E -1.63%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-08 00:00
LiveScore Bet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.67%EV -2.74%E -0.623%K -0.806%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.98%EV -13.97%E -7.68%K -17.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.34%EV -5.05%E -1.63%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-08 00:00
LeoVegas🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.67%EV -2.74%E -0.623%K -0.806%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.98%EV -13.97%E -7.68%K -17.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.34%EV -5.05%E -1.63%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-08 00:00
DraftKings🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.93%EV -4.95%E -1.15%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.15%EV -5.47%E -2.73%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.92%EV -6.58%E -2.16%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-08 00:14
1xBet🎯4.21I 23.75%NM 22.55%EV -6.94%E -1.65%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -7.83%E -4.02%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.77%EV +1.07%E +0.326%K +0.467%G +0.005%5.3%2026-05-08 00:25
Coolbet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.66%EV -7.16%E -1.70%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.59%EV -5.47%E -2.73%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -1.99%E -0.621%K -0.904%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-07 23:34
888sport🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -7.16%E -1.70%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -9.72%E -5.09%K -10.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.44%EV -8.11%E -2.70%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-08 00:25
William Hill🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -7.16%E -1.70%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -9.72%E -5.09%K -10.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.44%EV -8.11%E -2.70%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-08 00:25
888sport (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -7.16%E -1.70%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -9.72%E -5.09%K -10.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.44%EV -8.11%E -2.70%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-08 00:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -7.16%E -1.70%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -9.72%E -5.09%K -10.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.44%EV -8.11%E -2.70%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-08 00:25
SportsBet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -7.16%E -1.70%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.65%EV -7.83%E -4.02%K -8.24%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.69%EV -12.10%E -4.21%K -6.47%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-08 00:19
Paddy Power🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.49%EV -7.16%E -1.70%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.28%EV -7.83%E -4.02%K -8.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -14.24%E -5.09%K -7.91%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-08 00:20
Bovada🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -9.37%E -2.29%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -5.47%E -2.73%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.59%EV -6.58%E -2.16%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-08 00:21
Unibet (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.30%EV -11.58%E -2.90%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.14%EV -4.52%E -2.24%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -6.58%E -2.16%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-08 00:20
Sky Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -11.58%E -2.90%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.30%EV -9.72%E -5.09%K -10.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.59%EV -14.24%E -5.09%K -7.91%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-08 00:20
NordicBet🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.36%EV -12.69%E -3.21%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.68%EV -4.52%E -2.24%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 30.96%EV -8.73%E -2.93%K -4.41%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-08 00:25
Coral🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -13.79%E -3.54%K -4.76%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.55%EV -9.72%E -5.09%K -10.68%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.66%EV -11.18%E -3.85%K -5.88%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-08 00:20
Unibet (FR)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 22.74%EV -14.90%E -3.87%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 47.07%EV -12.08%E -6.50%K -14.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.19%EV -11.18%E -3.85%K -5.88%G +0.000%14.2%2026-05-08 00:20
betfred_uk🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -17.11%E -4.56%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -5.47%E -2.73%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -5.05%E -1.63%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-08 00:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.70I 21.28%NM 21.05%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.55%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.40%1.1%2026-05-08 00:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.70I 21.28%NM 21.05%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.55%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.40%1.1%2026-05-08 00:25
Matchbook◎4.70I 21.28%NM 21.05%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.55%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.40%1.1%2026-05-08 00:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.60I 21.74%NM 21.49%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.63%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.89%1.2%2026-05-08 00:25
Smarkets◎4.70I 21.28%NM 20.83%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.07%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.10%2.1%2026-05-08 00:25