The School of Odds

CA Tigre BA v Nacional de Montevideo

2026-07-28 22:00 UTC — Copa Sudamericana

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Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

CA Tigre BA (Local)

Prediction 43.29%2.31fair odd
EV -3.91%
Edge -1.76%
Kelly -3.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.53%43.38%42.66%44.85%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.002.122.152.2250%47%47%45%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Nacional de Montevideo (Visit)

Prediction 29.23%3.42fair odd
EV +3.77%
Edge +1.06%
Kelly +1.48%
Growth +0.056%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.83%29.17%29.57%31.47%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.803.043.003.5536%33%33%28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 27.48%3.64fair odd
EV -1.06%
Edge -0.293%
Kelly -0.406%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.02%27.45%27.77%28.86%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.303.403.323.6030%29%30%28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -6.94%E -3.23%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.83%EV +3.77%E +1.06%K +1.48%G +0.056%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.86%EV -9.30%E -2.82%K -4.04%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-22 02:00
Pinnacle2.09I 47.85%NM 44.85%EV -9.53%E -4.56%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.09%EV +1.14%E +0.329%K +0.462%G +0.005%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.06%EV -8.20%E -2.46%K -3.51%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-22 04:05
William Hill2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -6.94%E -3.23%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -9.39%E -3.03%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.30%E -2.82%K -4.04%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-22 03:30
888sport2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -6.94%E -3.23%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -9.39%E -3.03%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.30%E -2.82%K -4.04%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-22 03:30
888sport (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -6.94%E -3.23%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -9.39%E -3.03%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.30%E -2.82%K -4.04%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-22 03:30
Mr Green (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -6.94%E -3.23%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -9.39%E -3.03%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.30%E -2.82%K -4.04%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-22 03:30
LeoVegas2.18I 45.87%NM 42.88%EV -5.64%E -2.59%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.16%EV -12.31%E -4.10%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -1.06%E -0.293%K -0.406%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-22 07:35
Codere (IT)2.17I 46.08%NM 42.67%EV -6.07%E -2.80%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.87%EV -12.31%E -4.10%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -3.80%E -1.09%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-22 03:20
betfred_uk2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -9.10%E -4.33%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -12.31%E -4.10%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -3.80%E -1.09%K -1.52%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-22 07:49
NordicBet2.22I 45.05%NM 41.53%EV -3.91%E -1.76%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 30.94%EV -12.89%E -4.33%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.52%EV -7.93%E -2.37%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-22 03:29
SportsBet2.08I 48.08%NM 43.80%EV -9.97%E -4.79%K -9.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.89%EV -13.77%E -4.67%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.31%EV -1.06%E -0.293%K -0.406%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-22 06:30
Unibet (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -6.94%E -3.23%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -15.23%E -5.25%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -3.80%E -1.09%K -1.52%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-22 03:20
Paddy Power2.05I 48.78%NM 43.93%EV -11.27%E -5.50%K -10.73%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.05%EV -15.23%E -5.25%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.02%EV -1.06%E -0.293%K -0.406%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-22 06:29
Coral2.10I 47.62%NM 42.36%EV -9.10%E -4.33%K -8.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -15.23%E -5.25%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -9.30%E -2.82%K -4.04%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-22 03:30
Unibet (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 42.49%EV -11.27%E -5.50%K -10.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.11%EV -18.15%E -6.48%K -10.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.40%EV -9.30%E -2.82%K -4.04%G +0.000%14.8%2026-07-22 03:20
Sky Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 43.10%EV -13.43%E -6.71%K -13.43%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.78%EV -18.15%E -6.48%K -10.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.12%EV -9.30%E -2.82%K -4.04%G +0.000%16.0%2026-07-22 06:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets2.08I 48.08%NM 42.32%2.84I 35.21%NM 31.00%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.68%13.6%2026-07-22 03:20