L’École des cotes

CA Tigre BA v Nacional de Montevideo

2026-07-28 22:00 UTC — Copa Sudamericana

Résultat du match

27 opérateurs (6 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

CA Tigre BA (Local)

Prévision 45.10%2.22cote équitable
EV -3.04%
Avantage -1.42%
Kelly -2.65%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.15

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
43.39%45.07%45.04%45.69%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.932.052.052.1551.81%48.74%48.78%46.51%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Nacional de Montevideo (Visiteur)

Prévision 27.12%3.69cote équitable
EV -2.37%
Avantage -0.658%
Kelly -0.911%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.60

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
26.54%27.12%27.04%29.65%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.003.353.403.6033.33%29.84%29.41%27.78%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 27.78%3.60cote équitable
EV -2.75%
Avantage -0.787%
Kelly -1.10%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
26.51%27.80%27.92%28.86%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.253.333.333.5030.77%29.99%30.03%28.57%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (27 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Coolbet2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.04%E -1.42%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.83%EV -3.73%E -1.05%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.86%EV -8.31%E -2.52%K -3.61%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-22 02:00
ATG (SE)2.12I 47.17%NM 45.38%EV -4.40%E -2.07%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.73%EV -2.37%E -0.658%K -0.911%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.89%EV -4.14%E -1.20%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-22 13:04
Bovada2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.30%E -2.52%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.79%E -2.29%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.53%E -1.63%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-26 05:36
betfred_uk2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -5.30%E -2.52%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -15.93%E -5.14%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -5.53%E -1.63%K -2.30%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-25 20:09
NordicBet2.08I 48.08%NM 44.23%EV -6.20%E -2.98%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -11.86%E -3.65%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -6.92%E -2.07%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-26 04:55
SportsBet2.08I 48.08%NM 43.98%EV -6.20%E -2.98%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -15.93%E -5.14%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.51%EV -4.14%E -1.20%K -1.69%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-25 20:09
Pinnacle2.07I 48.31%NM 45.29%EV -6.65%E -3.21%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.56%EV -4.27%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.15%EV -7.48%E -2.25%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-25 11:00
Unibet2.07I 48.31%NM 45.26%EV -6.65%E -3.21%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -5.08%E -1.45%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -6.92%E -2.07%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-22 12:34
Unibet (NL)2.07I 48.31%NM 45.26%EV -6.65%E -3.21%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -5.08%E -1.45%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -6.92%E -2.07%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-22 12:34
Casumo2.07I 48.31%NM 45.26%EV -6.65%E -3.21%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -5.08%E -1.45%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -6.92%E -2.07%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-22 12:34
Svenska Spel2.07I 48.31%NM 45.26%EV -6.65%E -3.21%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -5.08%E -1.45%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -6.92%E -2.07%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-22 13:04
Unibet (UK)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -7.55%E -3.69%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -7.79%E -2.29%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -2.75%E -0.787%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-25 22:04
LeoVegas2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -7.55%E -3.69%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -7.79%E -2.29%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -2.75%E -0.787%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-25 22:05
DraftKings2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -7.55%E -3.69%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -5.08%E -1.45%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -8.31%E -2.52%K -3.61%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-25 22:00
William Hill2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -7.55%E -3.69%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -10.51%E -3.18%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -9.70%E -2.98%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-25 21:54
888sport2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -7.55%E -3.69%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -10.51%E -3.18%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -9.70%E -2.98%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-25 21:54
888sport (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -7.55%E -3.69%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -10.51%E -3.18%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -9.70%E -2.98%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-25 21:55
Mr Green (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -7.55%E -3.69%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -10.51%E -3.18%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -9.70%E -2.98%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-25 21:55
Paddy Power2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -7.55%E -3.69%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -15.93%E -5.14%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -5.53%E -1.63%K -2.30%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-25 20:09
Sky Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -7.55%E -3.69%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -18.64%E -6.21%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -8.31%E -2.52%K -3.61%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-25 22:05
Codere (IT)2.04I 49.02%NM 45.45%EV -8.01%E -3.92%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.68%EV -9.15%E -2.73%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.87%EV -4.14%E -1.20%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-24 06:49
LiveScore Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -9.81%E -4.90%K -9.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -7.79%E -2.29%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -9.70%E -2.98%K -4.31%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-22 15:19
Virgin Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -9.81%E -4.90%K -9.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -7.79%E -2.29%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -9.70%E -2.98%K -4.31%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-22 15:19
LeoVegas (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -9.81%E -4.90%K -9.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -7.79%E -2.29%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -9.70%E -2.98%K -4.31%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-22 15:19
PMU (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -9.81%E -4.90%K -9.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -7.79%E -2.29%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -9.70%E -2.98%K -4.31%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-22 15:19
Coral2.00I 50.00%NM 44.64%EV -9.81%E -4.90%K -9.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.90%EV -13.22%E -4.13%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.47%EV -9.70%E -2.98%K -4.31%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-24 10:04
Unibet (FR)1.93I 51.81%NM 45.52%EV -12.97%E -6.72%K -13.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.45%EV -13.22%E -4.13%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.03%EV -9.70%E -2.98%K -4.31%G +0.000%13.8%2026-07-24 06:49
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (1)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Smarkets1.99I 50.25%NM 44.95%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%11.8%2026-07-25 22:05