The School of Odds
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CA Tigre BA v Macará

Kickoff: 2026-04-16 22:02 UTC

Final: CA Tigre BA 0–1 Macará

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

CA Tigre BA (Local)

Prediction 63.66%1.57fair odd
EV -5.14%
Edge -3.45%
Kelly -10.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.93%63.82%63.66%65.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.441.441.4972.46%69.34%69.44%67.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Macará (Visit)

Prediction 13.15%7.61fair odd
EV +11.75%
Edge +1.38%
Kelly +1.57%
Growth +0.184%

assuming max odds 8.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.36%12.91%13.15%15.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.007.237.008.5016.67%13.84%14.29%11.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.19%4.31fair odd
EV +0.886%
Edge +0.204%
Kelly +0.264%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 4.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.41%23.28%23.19%24.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.653.984.004.3527.40%25.10%25.00%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: CA Tigre BA (Local): 63.66%; Macará (Visit): 13.15%; Draw: 23.19%. For Macará (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.61. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.75%.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Virgin Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.66%EV -6.42%E -4.37%K -13.66%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.36%EV +11.75%E +1.38%K +1.57%G +0.184%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.98%EV -2.59%E -0.617%K -0.810%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-16 22:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 65.41%EV -5.14%E -3.45%K -10.50%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.18%EV +5.17%E +0.647%K +0.739%G +0.038%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.41%EV +0.886%E +0.204%K +0.264%G +0.002%2.6%2026-04-16 21:59
LiveScore Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.53%EV -7.05%E -4.83%K -15.34%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.96%EV +5.17%E +0.647%K +0.739%G +0.038%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.51%EV -1.43%E -0.337%K -0.441%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-16 22:00
Coolbet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.18%EV -7.05%E -4.83%K -15.34%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +5.17%E +0.647%K +0.739%G +0.038%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.93%EV -3.75%E -0.904%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-16 21:58
Unibet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.67%EV -8.33%E -5.78%K -18.93%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.82%EV +5.17%E +0.647%K +0.739%G +0.038%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -2.59%E -0.617%K -0.810%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-16 22:00
Casumo🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.82%EV -8.96%E -6.27%K -20.85%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV +5.17%E +0.647%K +0.739%G +0.038%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -2.59%E -0.617%K -0.810%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-16 21:59
Unibet (NL)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.82%EV -8.96%E -6.27%K -20.85%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV +5.17%E +0.647%K +0.739%G +0.038%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -2.59%E -0.617%K -0.810%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-16 21:59
Svenska Spel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.82%EV -8.96%E -6.27%K -20.85%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV +5.17%E +0.647%K +0.739%G +0.038%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -2.59%E -0.617%K -0.810%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-16 21:59
LeoVegas🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.40%EV -12.15%E -8.80%K -31.97%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.03%EV -1.40%E -0.187%K -0.215%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.56%EV -7.23%E -1.81%K -2.41%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-16 21:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.40%EV -12.15%E -8.80%K -31.97%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.03%EV -1.40%E -0.187%K -0.215%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.56%EV -7.23%E -1.81%K -2.41%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-16 22:00
Pinnacle🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.55%EV -5.14%E -3.45%K -10.50%G +0.000%7.15I 13.99%NM 13.24%EV -6.00%E -0.839%K -0.976%G +0.000%4.08I 24.51%NM 23.21%EV -5.38%E -1.32%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-16 21:59
DraftKings🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.44%EV -5.14%E -3.45%K -10.50%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.50%EV -7.97%E -1.14%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.06%EV -4.91%E -1.20%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-16 21:59
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.10%EV -8.33%E -5.78%K -18.93%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -7.97%E -1.14%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.91%EV -11.87%E -3.12%K -4.24%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-16 21:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.90%EV -8.33%E -5.78%K -18.93%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.94%EV -7.97%E -1.14%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -13.03%E -3.47%K -4.74%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-16 22:00
SportsBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.52%EV -10.87%E -7.77%K -27.19%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.90%EV -7.97%E -1.14%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -7.23%E -1.81%K -2.41%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-16 21:59
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.76%EV -10.87%E -7.77%K -27.19%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV -7.97%E -1.14%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -11.87%E -3.12%K -4.24%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-16 22:00
NordicBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 61.78%EV -5.14%E -3.45%K -10.50%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.34%EV -9.29%E -1.35%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -14.19%E -3.83%K -5.26%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-16 22:00
Bovada🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -5.78%E -3.91%K -12.04%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.88%EV -11.26%E -1.67%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.84%EV -4.91%E -1.20%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-16 21:55
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.48%EV -8.33%E -5.78%K -18.93%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -14.55%E -2.24%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -11.87%E -3.12%K -4.24%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-16 22:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.48%EV -8.33%E -5.78%K -18.93%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -14.55%E -2.24%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -11.87%E -3.12%K -4.24%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-16 21:59
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.28%EV -8.33%E -5.78%K -18.93%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.80%EV -14.55%E -2.24%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -13.03%E -3.47%K -4.74%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-16 21:59
Sky Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.14%EV -10.87%E -7.77%K -27.19%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.60%EV -14.55%E -2.24%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.26%EV -11.87%E -3.12%K -4.24%G +0.000%13.1%2026-04-16 22:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 61.83%EV -10.24%E -7.26%K -24.97%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.29%EV -19.81%E -3.25%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.88%EV -15.35%E -4.21%K -5.79%G +0.000%14.7%2026-04-16 21:59
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.93%EV -5.78%E -3.91%K -12.04%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.03%EV -21.12%E -3.52%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.05%EV -13.03%E -3.47%K -4.74%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-16 21:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 66.17%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.28%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.56%0.8%2026-04-16 22:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 65.82%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.22%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.96%1.3%2026-04-16 22:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 65.82%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.22%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.96%1.3%2026-04-16 22:00
Smarkets◎1.50I 66.67%NM 65.65%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.45%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.90%1.6%2026-04-16 22:00
Matchbook◎1.41I 70.92%NM 62.50%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.35%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.14%13.5%2026-04-16 22:00