The School of Odds
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CA Juventud v Clube Atlético Mineiro

Kickoff: 2026-05-05 22:00 UTC

Final: CA Juventud 2–2 Clube Atlético Mineiro

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

CA Juventud (Local)

Prediction 25.97%3.85fair odd
EV +1.02%
Edge +0.263%
Kelly +0.353%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 3.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.75%25.65%25.97%26.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.573.553.8929.41%28.03%28.17%25.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Clube Atlético Mineiro (Visit)

Prediction 44.74%2.24fair odd
EV -1.57%
Edge -0.713%
Kelly -1.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.48%44.82%44.74%46.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.082.092.2051.28%48.07%47.85%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.29%3.41fair odd
EV -1.88%
Edge -0.561%
Kelly -0.800%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.55%29.54%29.29%31.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.123.123.3534.48%32.00%32.05%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: CA Juventud (Local): 25.97%; Clube Atlético Mineiro (Visit): 44.74%; Draw: 29.29%. For CA Juventud (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.85. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.89, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.02%.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.89I 25.71%NM 24.48%EV +1.02%E +0.263%K +0.353%G +0.004%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.22%EV -7.83%E -3.80%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.30%EV -4.81%E -1.48%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-05 21:30
SportsBet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -1.32%E -0.346%K -0.470%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -10.52%E -5.26%K -10.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -12.13%E -4.04%K -6.07%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-05 21:30
Paddy Power🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -1.32%E -0.346%K -0.470%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.13%EV -10.52%E -5.26%K -10.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.12%EV -15.06%E -5.19%K -7.93%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-05 21:30
1xBet🎯3.73I 26.81%NM 24.95%EV -3.13%E -0.840%K -1.15%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.40%EV -8.28%E -4.04%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.64%EV -8.03%E -2.56%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-05 21:30
ATG (SE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.68%EV -5.21%E -1.43%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.26%EV -1.57%E -0.713%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.07%EV -1.88%E -0.561%K -0.800%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-05 21:30
Coolbet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.12%EV -5.21%E -1.43%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.55%EV -4.25%E -1.99%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.33%EV -4.81%E -1.48%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-05 21:15
DraftKings🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.90%EV -5.21%E -1.43%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.01%EV -6.04%E -2.88%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.09%EV -4.81%E -1.48%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-05 21:30
Bovada🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -6.51%E -1.81%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -6.04%E -2.88%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -7.74%E -2.46%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-05 21:19
Sky Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -6.51%E -1.81%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.54%EV -10.52%E -5.26%K -10.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -15.06%E -5.19%K -7.93%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-05 21:30
Unibet (NL)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.66%EV -7.81%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.22%EV -4.25%E -1.99%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.12%EV -4.81%E -1.48%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-05 21:30
Casumo🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.66%EV -7.81%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.22%EV -4.25%E -1.99%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.12%EV -4.81%E -1.48%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-05 21:30
Unibet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.66%EV -7.81%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.22%EV -4.25%E -1.99%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.12%EV -4.81%E -1.48%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-05 21:30
Svenska Spel🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.66%EV -7.81%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.22%EV -4.25%E -1.99%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.12%EV -4.81%E -1.48%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-05 21:30
NordicBet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -7.81%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.52%EV -6.94%E -3.34%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.40%EV -7.74%E -2.46%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-05 21:15
888sport🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -9.11%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -6.04%E -2.88%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -12.13%E -4.04%K -6.07%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-05 21:30
William Hill🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -9.11%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -6.04%E -2.88%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -12.13%E -4.04%K -6.07%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-05 21:30
888sport (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -9.11%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -6.04%E -2.88%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -12.13%E -4.04%K -6.07%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-05 21:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -9.11%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -6.04%E -2.88%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -12.13%E -4.04%K -6.07%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-05 21:30
Unibet (FR)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.37%EV -9.11%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.53%EV -12.75%E -6.54%K -13.43%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.11%EV -10.67%E -3.50%K -5.20%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-05 21:30
betfred_uk🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -11.70%E -3.44%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -8.28%E -4.04%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -6.27%E -1.96%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-05 21:30
LeoVegas🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -11.70%E -3.44%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.05%EV -7.83%E -3.80%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.20%E -2.97%K -4.38%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-05 21:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -11.70%E -3.44%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.05%EV -7.83%E -3.80%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.20%E -2.97%K -4.38%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-05 21:30
LiveScore Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -11.70%E -3.44%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.05%EV -7.83%E -3.80%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.20%E -2.97%K -4.38%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-05 21:30
Virgin Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -11.70%E -3.44%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.05%EV -7.83%E -3.80%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.20%E -2.97%K -4.38%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-05 21:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎4.20I 23.81%NM 23.60%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.89%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.50%0.9%2026-05-05 21:29
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.20I 23.81%NM 23.60%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.89%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.50%0.9%2026-05-05 21:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.20I 23.81%NM 23.60%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.89%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.50%0.9%2026-05-05 21:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.20I 23.81%NM 23.60%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.89%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.50%0.9%2026-05-05 21:30
Smarkets◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.28%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.38%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.35%3.0%2026-05-05 21:30