The School of Odds
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CA Boston River v Millonarios

Kickoff: 2026-05-07 22:00 UTC

Final: CA Boston River 2–4 Millonarios

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

CA Boston River (Local)

Prediction 19.25%5.20fair odd
EV -1.65%
Edge -0.323%
Kelly -0.401%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.24%19.24%19.15%20.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.784.785.1122.73%20.90%20.94%19.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Millonarios (Visit)

Prediction 54.61%1.83fair odd
EV -0.064%
Edge -0.035%
Kelly -0.077%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.59%54.51%54.73%55.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.721.711.8360.61%58.26%58.48%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.14%3.83fair odd
EV -2.75%
Edge -0.738%
Kelly -1.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.54%26.24%26.12%27.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.473.483.7231.25%28.79%28.78%26.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: CA Boston River (Local): 19.25%; Millonarios (Visit): 54.61%; Draw: 26.14%. For Millonarios (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.831. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.830, with an expected value of -0.064%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯5.11I 19.57%NM 18.52%EV -1.65%E -0.323%K -0.401%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.68%EV -7.16%E -4.21%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 25.79%EV -4.05%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-07 21:55
1xBet🎯5.03I 19.88%NM 18.89%EV -3.19%E -0.634%K -0.791%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.57%EV -6.62%E -3.87%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.54%EV -2.75%E -0.738%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-07 21:55
Coolbet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.03%EV -3.77%E -0.753%K -0.941%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.68%EV -4.98%E -2.86%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.28%EV -5.36%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-07 21:34
Bovada🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.69%EV -3.77%E -0.753%K -0.941%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.98%EV -7.16%E -4.21%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.33%EV -7.19%E -2.03%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-07 21:53
betfred_uk🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -3.77%E -0.753%K -0.941%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.21%EV -8.80%E -5.27%K -13.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.34%EV -8.50%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-07 21:40
Paddy Power🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -3.77%E -0.753%K -0.941%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -8.80%E -5.27%K -13.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-07 21:54
SportsBet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.24%EV -3.77%E -0.753%K -0.941%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 54.94%EV -9.35%E -5.63%K -14.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-07 21:34
NordicBet🎯4.95I 20.20%NM 18.54%EV -4.73%E -0.955%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.61%EV -9.89%E -6.00%K -15.22%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -7.19%E -2.03%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-07 21:34
ATG (SE)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.92%EV -5.69%E -1.16%K -1.46%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.34%EV -0.064%E -0.035%K -0.077%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.74%EV -4.58%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.5%2026-05-07 21:55
DraftKings🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.13%EV -5.69%E -1.16%K -1.46%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.83%EV -6.62%E -3.87%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-07 21:55
Unibet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -7.61%E -1.59%K -2.00%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.14%EV -3.34%E -1.89%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -9.81%E -2.84%K -4.00%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-07 21:49
Unibet (UK)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.58%EV -7.61%E -1.59%K -2.00%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.32%EV -5.53%E -3.19%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -5.88%E -1.63%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-07 21:55
William Hill🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.25%EV -7.61%E -1.59%K -2.00%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.35%EV -7.16%E -4.21%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -8.50%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-07 21:49
Casumo🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -8.58%E -1.81%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.10%EV -2.79%E -1.57%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.00%EV -8.50%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-07 21:55
Unibet (NL)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -8.58%E -1.81%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.10%EV -2.79%E -1.57%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.00%EV -8.50%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-07 21:54
Svenska Spel🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -8.58%E -1.81%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.10%EV -2.79%E -1.57%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.00%EV -8.50%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-07 21:55
Sky Bet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 18.93%EV -8.58%E -1.81%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.83%EV -8.80%E -5.27%K -13.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -13.73%E -4.16%K -5.97%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-07 21:54
888sport🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.95%EV -11.46%E -2.49%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.05%EV -5.53%E -3.19%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-07 21:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.95%EV -11.46%E -2.49%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.05%EV -5.53%E -3.19%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-07 21:55
888sport (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.95%EV -11.46%E -2.49%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.05%EV -5.53%E -3.19%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-07 21:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.83%EV -11.46%E -2.49%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.34%EV -6.62%E -3.87%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.83%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-07 21:55
Virgin Bet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.83%EV -11.46%E -2.49%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.34%EV -6.62%E -3.87%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.83%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-07 21:55
LiveScore Bet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.83%EV -11.46%E -2.49%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.34%EV -6.62%E -3.87%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.83%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-07 21:54
LeoVegas🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.83%EV -11.46%E -2.49%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.34%EV -6.62%E -3.87%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.83%EV -11.11%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-07 21:54
Unibet (FR)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.48%EV -13.39%E -2.98%K -3.83%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 53.13%EV -9.89%E -6.00%K -15.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.39%EV -16.34%E -5.11%K -7.43%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-07 21:50
Coral🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.32%EV -15.31%E -3.48%K -4.50%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.59%EV -7.16%E -4.21%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.09%EV -13.73%E -4.16%K -5.97%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-07 21:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎5.60I 17.86%NM 17.79%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.65%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.56%0.4%2026-05-07 21:50
Matchbook◎5.60I 17.86%NM 17.79%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.65%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.56%0.4%2026-05-07 21:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎5.60I 17.86%NM 17.73%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.79%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%0.7%2026-05-07 21:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.60I 17.86%NM 17.73%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.79%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%0.7%2026-05-07 21:55
Smarkets◎5.50I 18.18%NM 17.93%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.41%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.66%1.4%2026-05-07 21:50