The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Botafogo v Caracas FC

Kickoff: 2026-04-09 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Botafogo (Local)

Prediction 82.28%1.22fair odd
EV -2.09%
Edge -1.76%
Kelly -11.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
79.58%81.81%82.34%83.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.081.131.141.1992.59%88.37%87.72%84.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Caracas FC (Visit)

Prediction 5.59%17.88fair odd
EV +11.88%
Edge +0.594%
Kelly +0.625%
Growth +0.074%

assuming max odds 20.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.61%5.66%5.56%6.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
13.0016.6717.0020.007.69%6.00%5.88%5.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 12.13%8.24fair odd
EV +13.89%
Edge +1.48%
Kelly +1.66%
Growth +0.230%

assuming max odds 9.39

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.35%12.53%12.10%14.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.107.637.929.3916.39%13.10%12.63%10.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Botafogo (Local): 82.28%; Caracas FC (Visit): 5.59%; Draw: 12.13%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.24. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.39, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.89%.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 83.79%EV -4.56%E -3.93%K -28.49%G +0.000%16.60I 6.02%NM 5.86%EV -7.14%E -0.430%K -0.457%G +0.000%9.39I 10.65%NM 10.35%EV +13.89%E +1.48%K +1.66%G +0.230%2.9%2026-04-09 21:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 82.56%EV -3.74%E -3.19%K -21.97%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.37%EV +0.696%E +0.039%K +0.041%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.07%EV -2.97%E -0.371%K -0.424%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-09 21:55
Unibet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.93%EV -6.20%E -5.44%K -44.31%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.25%EV +0.696%E +0.039%K +0.041%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.82%EV -2.97%E -0.371%K -0.424%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-09 21:55
Casumo🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.93%EV -6.20%E -5.44%K -44.31%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.25%EV +0.696%E +0.039%K +0.041%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.82%EV -2.97%E -0.371%K -0.424%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-09 21:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.93%EV -6.20%E -5.44%K -44.31%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.25%EV +0.696%E +0.039%K +0.041%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.82%EV -2.97%E -0.371%K -0.424%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-09 21:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.93%EV -6.20%E -5.44%K -44.31%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.25%EV +0.696%E +0.039%K +0.041%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.82%EV -2.97%E -0.371%K -0.424%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-09 21:55
DraftKings🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.67%EV -6.20%E -5.44%K -44.31%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.54%EV -4.90%E -0.288%K -0.306%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -2.97%E -0.371%K -0.424%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-09 21:49
William Hill🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.07%EV -6.20%E -5.44%K -44.31%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -16.09%E -1.07%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -2.97%E -0.371%K -0.424%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-09 21:55
888sport🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.07%EV -6.20%E -5.44%K -44.31%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -16.09%E -1.07%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -2.97%E -0.371%K -0.424%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-09 21:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.07%EV -6.20%E -5.44%K -44.31%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -16.09%E -1.07%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -2.97%E -0.371%K -0.424%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-09 21:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.07%EV -6.20%E -5.44%K -44.31%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -16.09%E -1.07%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -2.97%E -0.371%K -0.424%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-09 21:55
SportsBet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.43%EV -9.50%E -8.63%K -94.95%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.10%EV +0.696%E +0.039%K +0.041%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.47%EV -2.97%E -0.371%K -0.424%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-09 21:45
Pinnacle🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.23%EV -5.38%E -4.68%K -35.87%G +0.000%16.58I 6.03%NM 5.70%EV -7.25%E -0.437%K -0.465%G +0.000%7.84I 12.76%NM 12.06%EV -4.91%E -0.627%K -0.718%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-09 21:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.03%EV -6.20%E -5.44%K -44.31%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV -4.90%E -0.288%K -0.306%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -9.04%E -1.20%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-09 21:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.29%EV -7.85%E -7.01%K -65.41%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.42%EV -4.90%E -0.288%K -0.306%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -9.04%E -1.20%K -1.39%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-09 21:24
LiveScore Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.42%EV -8.67%E -7.81%K -78.84%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%EV -4.90%E -0.288%K -0.306%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -9.04%E -1.20%K -1.39%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-09 21:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.42%EV -8.67%E -7.81%K -78.84%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%EV -4.90%E -0.288%K -0.306%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -9.04%E -1.20%K -1.39%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-09 21:24
LeoVegas🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.42%EV -8.67%E -7.81%K -78.84%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%EV -4.90%E -0.288%K -0.306%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -9.04%E -1.20%K -1.39%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-09 21:25
Paddy Power🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 82.81%EV -11.14%E -10.32%K -139.26%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.26%EV -4.90%E -0.288%K -0.306%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.93%EV -9.04%E -1.20%K -1.39%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-09 21:45
Coral🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.11%EV -7.03%E -6.22%K -54.05%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.96%EV -27.28%E -2.10%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.93%EV -15.10%E -2.16%K -2.52%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-09 21:45
Sky Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 81.27%EV -9.50%E -8.63%K -94.95%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.96%EV -16.09%E -1.07%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV -15.10%E -2.16%K -2.52%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-09 21:45
Coolbet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 80.05%EV -2.09%E -1.76%K -11.00%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.29%EV +0.696%E +0.039%K +0.041%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.66%EV -21.16%E -3.26%K -3.85%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-09 21:45
NordicBet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.96%EV -6.20%E -5.44%K -44.31%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.61%EV +11.88%E +0.594%K +0.625%G +0.074%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.42%EV -22.38%E -3.50%K -4.14%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-09 21:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 79.58%EV -10.32%E -9.47%K -114.64%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.20%EV -21.68%E -1.55%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.22%EV -26.02%E -4.26%K -5.10%G +0.000%15.3%2026-04-09 21:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.17I 85.47%NM 85.38%25.00I 4.00%NM 4.00%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.63%0.1%2026-04-09 21:55
Smarkets◎1.16I 86.21%NM 85.48%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.97%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.55%0.8%2026-04-09 21:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.16I 86.21%NM 85.48%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.97%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.55%0.8%2026-04-09 21:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.16I 86.21%NM 85.48%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.97%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.55%0.8%2026-04-09 21:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.16I 86.21%NM 85.48%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.97%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.55%0.8%2026-04-09 21:50