L’École des cotesFrançais
Botafogo v Caracas FC
Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →
Résultat du match
Botafogo (Local)
Prévision 82.28%1.22cote équitable
EV -2.09%
Avantage -1.76%
Kelly -11.00%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 1.19
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
79.58%81.81%82.34%83.79%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.081.131.141.1992.59%88.37%87.72%84.03%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Caracas FC (Visiteur)
Prévision 5.59%17.88cote équitable
EV +11.88%
Avantage +0.594%
Kelly +0.625%
Croissance +0.074%
avec la cote maximale 20.00
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
4.61%5.66%5.56%6.96%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
13.0016.6717.0020.007.69%6.00%5.88%5.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Match nul
Prévision 12.13%8.24cote équitable
EV +13.89%
Avantage +1.48%
Kelly +1.66%
Croissance +0.230%
avec la cote maximale 9.39
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
10.35%12.53%12.10%14.66%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
6.107.637.929.3916.39%13.10%12.63%10.65%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Cotes des opérateurs (24 opérateurs)
Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur | Match nul ▼ | Marge | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.79%EV -4.56%E -3.93%K -28.49%G +0.000% | 16.60I 6.02%NM 5.86%EV -7.14%E -0.430%K -0.457%G +0.000% | 9.39I 10.65%NM 10.35%EV +13.89%E +1.48%K +1.66%G +0.230% | 2.9% | 2026-04-09 21:50 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.56%EV -3.74%E -3.19%K -21.97%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.37%EV +0.696%E +0.039%K +0.041%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.07%EV -2.97%E -0.371%K -0.424%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-04-09 21:55 |
| Unibet | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.93%EV -6.20%E -5.44%K -44.31%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.25%EV +0.696%E +0.039%K +0.041%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.82%EV -2.97%E -0.371%K -0.424%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-09 21:55 |
| Casumo | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.93%EV -6.20%E -5.44%K -44.31%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.25%EV +0.696%E +0.039%K +0.041%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.82%EV -2.97%E -0.371%K -0.424%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-09 21:55 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.93%EV -6.20%E -5.44%K -44.31%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.25%EV +0.696%E +0.039%K +0.041%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.82%EV -2.97%E -0.371%K -0.424%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-09 21:55 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.93%EV -6.20%E -5.44%K -44.31%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.25%EV +0.696%E +0.039%K +0.041%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.82%EV -2.97%E -0.371%K -0.424%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-09 21:55 |
| DraftKings | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.67%EV -6.20%E -5.44%K -44.31%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.54%EV -4.90%E -0.288%K -0.306%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -2.97%E -0.371%K -0.424%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-09 21:49 |
| William Hill | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.07%EV -6.20%E -5.44%K -44.31%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -16.09%E -1.07%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -2.97%E -0.371%K -0.424%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-09 21:55 |
| 888sport | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.07%EV -6.20%E -5.44%K -44.31%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -16.09%E -1.07%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -2.97%E -0.371%K -0.424%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-09 21:55 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.07%EV -6.20%E -5.44%K -44.31%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -16.09%E -1.07%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -2.97%E -0.371%K -0.424%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-09 21:55 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.07%EV -6.20%E -5.44%K -44.31%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -16.09%E -1.07%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -2.97%E -0.371%K -0.424%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-09 21:55 |
| SportsBet | 1.10I 90.91%NM 83.43%EV -9.50%E -8.63%K -94.95%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.10%EV +0.696%E +0.039%K +0.041%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.47%EV -2.97%E -0.371%K -0.424%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-09 21:45 |
| Pinnacle | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.23%EV -5.38%E -4.68%K -35.87%G +0.000% | 16.58I 6.03%NM 5.70%EV -7.25%E -0.437%K -0.465%G +0.000% | 7.84I 12.76%NM 12.06%EV -4.91%E -0.627%K -0.718%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-09 21:50 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.03%EV -6.20%E -5.44%K -44.31%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV -4.90%E -0.288%K -0.306%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -9.04%E -1.20%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-09 21:55 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.29%EV -7.85%E -7.01%K -65.41%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.42%EV -4.90%E -0.288%K -0.306%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -9.04%E -1.20%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-09 21:24 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.11I 90.09%NM 82.42%EV -8.67%E -7.81%K -78.84%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%EV -4.90%E -0.288%K -0.306%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -9.04%E -1.20%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-09 21:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.11I 90.09%NM 82.42%EV -8.67%E -7.81%K -78.84%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%EV -4.90%E -0.288%K -0.306%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -9.04%E -1.20%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-09 21:24 |
| LeoVegas | 1.11I 90.09%NM 82.42%EV -8.67%E -7.81%K -78.84%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%EV -4.90%E -0.288%K -0.306%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -9.04%E -1.20%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-09 21:25 |
| Paddy Power | 1.08I 92.59%NM 82.81%EV -11.14%E -10.32%K -139.26%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.26%EV -4.90%E -0.288%K -0.306%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.93%EV -9.04%E -1.20%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-04-09 21:45 |
| Coral | 1.13I 88.50%NM 80.11%EV -7.03%E -6.22%K -54.05%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.96%EV -27.28%E -2.10%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.93%EV -15.10%E -2.16%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-04-09 21:45 |
| Sky Bet | 1.10I 90.91%NM 81.27%EV -9.50%E -8.63%K -94.95%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 5.96%EV -16.09%E -1.07%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV -15.10%E -2.16%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-04-09 21:45 |
| Coolbet | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.05%EV -2.09%E -1.76%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.29%EV +0.696%E +0.039%K +0.041%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.66%EV -21.16%E -3.26%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-09 21:45 |
| NordicBet | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.96%EV -6.20%E -5.44%K -44.31%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.61%EV +11.88%E +0.594%K +0.625%G +0.074% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.42%EV -22.38%E -3.50%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-09 21:50 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.09I 91.74%NM 79.58%EV -10.32%E -9.47%K -114.64%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.20%EV -21.68%E -1.55%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.22%EV -26.02%E -4.26%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 15.3% | 2026-04-09 21:50 |
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu
Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.
Plateformes d’échange (5)
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur | Match nul | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 1.17I 85.47%NM 85.38% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 4.00% | 9.40I 10.64%NM 10.63% | 0.1% | 2026-04-09 21:55 |
| Smarkets | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.48% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.97% | 9.40I 10.64%NM 10.55% | 0.8% | 2026-04-09 21:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.48% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.97% | 9.40I 10.64%NM 10.55% | 0.8% | 2026-04-09 21:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.48% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.97% | 9.40I 10.64%NM 10.55% | 0.8% | 2026-04-09 21:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.48% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.97% | 9.40I 10.64%NM 10.55% | 0.8% | 2026-04-09 21:50 |