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Boca Juniors v O'Higgins
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Boca Juniors (Local)
Prediction 66.95%1.49fair odd
EV -4.93%
Edge -3.47%
Kelly -11.74%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.42
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.57%66.94%67.04%69.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.371.381.4275.76%72.84%72.20%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
O'Higgins (Visit)
Prediction 11.67%8.57fair odd
EV +10.90%
Edge +1.15%
Kelly +1.28%
Growth +0.140%
assuming max odds 9.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.63%11.69%11.66%13.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.508.378.259.5015.38%11.95%12.12%10.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 21.38%4.68fair odd
EV +1.53%
Edge +0.323%
Kelly +0.409%
Growth +0.006%
assuming max odds 4.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.01%21.37%21.30%22.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.374.354.7525.00%22.89%22.99%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Boca Juniors (Local): 66.95%; O'Higgins (Visit): 11.67%; Draw: 21.38%. For O'Higgins (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.57. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.90%.
Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.50%EV -7.61%E -5.51%K -20.02%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.10%EV +10.90%E +1.15%K +1.28%G +0.140% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.41%EV +0.466%E +0.099%K +0.126%G +0.001% | 4.3% | 2026-07-24 00:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.19%EV -8.95%E -6.58%K -24.85%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.90%EV +10.90%E +1.15%K +1.28%G +0.140% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -3.81%E -0.846%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-24 00:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.19%EV -8.95%E -6.58%K -24.85%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.90%EV +10.90%E +1.15%K +1.28%G +0.140% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -3.81%E -0.846%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-24 00:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.19%EV -8.95%E -6.58%K -24.85%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.90%EV +10.90%E +1.15%K +1.28%G +0.140% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -3.81%E -0.846%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-24 00:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.19%EV -8.95%E -6.58%K -24.85%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.90%EV +10.90%E +1.15%K +1.28%G +0.140% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -3.81%E -0.846%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-24 00:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.33%EV -11.62%E -8.81%K -36.33%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.63%EV +10.90%E +1.15%K +1.28%G +0.140% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.04%EV -7.02%E -1.61%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-07-24 00:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.33%EV -11.62%E -8.81%K -36.33%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.63%EV +10.90%E +1.15%K +1.28%G +0.140% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.04%EV -7.02%E -1.61%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-07-24 00:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.33%EV -11.62%E -8.81%K -36.33%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.63%EV +10.90%E +1.15%K +1.28%G +0.140% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.04%EV -7.02%E -1.61%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-07-24 00:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.33%EV -11.62%E -8.81%K -36.33%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.63%EV +10.90%E +1.15%K +1.28%G +0.140% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.04%EV -7.02%E -1.61%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-07-24 00:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.70%EV -4.93%E -3.47%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.45%EV +7.39%E +0.804%K +0.902%G +0.067% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV -5.95%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-24 00:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.37%EV -8.28%E -6.04%K -22.37%G +0.000% | 8.95I 11.17%NM 10.62%EV +4.47%E +0.500%K +0.563%G +0.025% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.01%EV +1.53%E +0.323%K +0.409%G +0.006% | 5.2% | 2026-07-24 00:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.66%EV -6.27%E -4.48%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 8.72I 11.47%NM 10.86%EV +1.79%E +0.205%K +0.232%G +0.004% | 4.41I 22.68%NM 21.48%EV -5.73%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-24 00:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.92%EV -6.94%E -4.99%K -17.79%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.11%EV -0.778%E -0.092%K -0.104%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -3.81%E -0.846%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-23 23:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.06%EV -10.29%E -7.68%K -30.25%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.73%EV -0.778%E -0.092%K -0.104%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.21%EV -8.08%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-24 00:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -6.27%E -4.48%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -6.61%E -0.827%K -0.945%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -3.81%E -0.846%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-24 00:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -6.27%E -4.48%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -6.61%E -0.827%K -0.945%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -3.81%E -0.846%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-24 00:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.43%EV -10.96%E -8.24%K -33.20%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.21%EV -6.61%E -0.827%K -0.945%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.35%EV -10.22%E -2.43%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-07-24 00:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.77%EV -6.27%E -4.48%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -12.45%E -1.66%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -3.81%E -0.846%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-24 00:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.79%EV -6.27%E -4.48%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -12.45%E -1.66%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -10.22%E -2.43%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-23 23:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.79%EV -6.27%E -4.48%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -12.45%E -1.66%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -10.22%E -2.43%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-23 23:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.79%EV -6.27%E -4.48%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -12.45%E -1.66%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -10.22%E -2.43%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-23 23:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.79%EV -6.27%E -4.48%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -12.45%E -1.66%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -10.22%E -2.43%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-23 23:29 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.79%EV -6.27%E -4.48%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -12.45%E -1.66%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -10.22%E -2.43%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-23 23:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 66.23%EV -10.96%E -8.24%K -33.20%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.75%EV -12.45%E -1.66%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.02%EV -14.50%E -3.62%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-07-24 00:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.69%EV -5.60%E -3.97%K -13.66%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.52%EV -13.62%E -1.84%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.79%EV -9.15%E -2.15%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-24 00:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.16%EV -10.96%E -8.24%K -33.20%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.07%EV -13.62%E -1.84%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.77%EV -8.08%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-07-24 00:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.79%EV -4.93%E -3.47%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 12.98%EV -15.95%E -2.22%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.23%EV -5.95%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-24 00:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.57%EV -6.27%E -4.48%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -24.12%E -3.71%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -10.22%E -2.43%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-07-24 00:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 10.34% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.69% | 0.7% | 2026-07-24 00:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 10.34% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.69% | 0.7% | 2026-07-24 00:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.26% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 10.11% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.63% | 1.0% | 2026-07-24 00:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 10.30% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.59% | 1.2% | 2026-07-24 00:20 |
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