The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Blooming v River Plate

Kickoff: 2026-04-09 00:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Blooming (Local)

Prediction 12.95%7.72fair odd
EV +6.16%
Edge +0.751%
Kelly +0.856%
Growth +0.053%

assuming max odds 8.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.61%12.90%13.39%14.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.107.107.008.2016.39%14.09%14.29%12.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

River Plate (Visit)

Prediction 67.49%1.48fair odd
EV -0.121%
Edge -0.082%
Kelly -0.252%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.99%67.35%66.95%69.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.371.371.4875.19%72.73%72.99%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.57%5.11fair odd
EV +2.73%
Edge +0.520%
Kelly +0.643%
Growth +0.018%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.42%19.75%19.66%21.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.254.714.785.2523.53%21.23%20.94%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Blooming (Local): 12.95%; River Plate (Visit): 67.49%; Draw: 19.57%. For Blooming (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.72. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.16%.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯8.20I 12.20%NM 11.61%EV +6.16%E +0.751%K +0.856%G +0.053%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.97%EV -6.87%E -4.98%K -18.08%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.42%EV -4.12%E -0.840%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-08 23:19
Pinnacle🎯7.85I 12.74%NM 12.04%EV +1.63%E +0.208%K +0.238%G +0.004%1.37I 72.99%NM 69.01%EV -7.54%E -5.51%K -20.39%G +0.000%4.99I 20.04%NM 18.95%EV -2.36%E -0.472%K -0.591%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-09 00:10
ATG (SE)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.97%EV -2.90%E -0.387%K -0.446%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 68.50%EV -4.17%E -2.94%K -9.93%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.53%EV +2.73%E +0.520%K +0.643%G +0.018%2.8%2026-04-09 00:00
Unibet🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -2.90%E -0.387%K -0.446%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.90%EV -7.54%E -5.51%K -20.39%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.51%EV -0.204%E -0.040%K -0.050%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-08 23:35
Casumo🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -2.90%E -0.387%K -0.446%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.06%EV -8.22%E -6.04%K -22.83%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.42%EV -0.204%E -0.040%K -0.050%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-08 23:34
Unibet (NL)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -2.90%E -0.387%K -0.446%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.06%EV -8.22%E -6.04%K -22.83%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.42%EV -0.204%E -0.040%K -0.050%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-08 23:34
Svenska Spel🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -2.90%E -0.387%K -0.446%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.06%EV -8.22%E -6.04%K -22.83%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.42%EV -0.204%E -0.040%K -0.050%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-08 23:34
Virgin Bet🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.30%EV -2.90%E -0.387%K -0.446%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 68.86%EV -9.57%E -7.14%K -28.14%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.83%EV -4.12%E -0.840%K -1.06%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-08 23:34
SportsBet🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.04%EV -2.90%E -0.387%K -0.446%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 67.89%EV -10.24%E -7.70%K -31.04%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.07%EV -11.95%E -2.65%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-09 00:14
1xBet🎯7.26I 13.77%NM 13.40%EV -6.01%E -0.828%K -0.960%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.76%EV -0.121%E -0.082%K -0.252%G +0.000%4.67I 21.41%NM 20.84%EV -8.62%E -1.85%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-09 00:20
DraftKings🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -9.37%E -1.34%K -1.56%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.88%EV -4.85%E -3.44%K -11.82%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.65%EV -6.07%E -1.27%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-09 00:14
Unibet (UK)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -9.37%E -1.34%K -1.56%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.90%EV -5.52%E -3.94%K -13.80%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -7.05%E -1.48%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-09 00:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.00%EV -9.37%E -1.34%K -1.56%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.43%EV -10.24%E -7.70%K -31.04%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.57%EV -4.12%E -0.840%K -1.06%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-09 00:00
LeoVegas🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.00%EV -9.37%E -1.34%K -1.56%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.43%EV -10.24%E -7.70%K -31.04%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.57%EV -4.12%E -0.840%K -1.06%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-09 00:00
LiveScore Bet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.00%EV -9.37%E -1.34%K -1.56%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.43%EV -10.24%E -7.70%K -31.04%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.57%EV -4.12%E -0.840%K -1.06%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-08 23:59
Sky Bet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.88%EV -9.37%E -1.34%K -1.56%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.30%EV -8.22%E -6.04%K -22.83%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.82%EV -15.27%E -3.53%K -4.59%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-09 00:14
Paddy Power🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.79%EV -9.37%E -1.34%K -1.56%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 67.31%EV -10.24%E -7.70%K -31.04%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -11.95%E -2.65%K -3.41%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-09 00:14
NordicBet🎯6.90I 14.49%NM 13.43%EV -10.67%E -1.55%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 65.74%EV -4.85%E -3.44%K -11.82%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.83%EV -12.92%E -2.90%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-09 00:14
Coral🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -15.85%E -2.44%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.99%EV -5.52%E -3.94%K -13.80%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -15.27%E -3.53%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-09 00:14
William Hill🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -15.85%E -2.44%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.99%EV -5.52%E -3.94%K -13.80%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -15.27%E -3.53%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-09 00:19
888sport🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -15.85%E -2.44%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.99%EV -5.52%E -3.94%K -13.80%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -15.27%E -3.53%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-09 00:19
888sport (SE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -15.85%E -2.44%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.99%EV -5.52%E -3.94%K -13.80%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -15.27%E -3.53%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-09 00:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -15.85%E -2.44%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.99%EV -5.52%E -3.94%K -13.80%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -15.27%E -3.53%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-09 00:20
Unibet (FR)🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 14.24%EV -21.03%E -3.45%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 65.32%EV -10.24%E -7.70%K -31.04%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.44%EV -16.84%E -3.96%K -5.18%G +0.000%15.1%2026-04-09 00:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎8.20I 12.20%NM 12.07%1.47I 68.03%NM 67.32%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.62%1.1%2026-04-09 00:19
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎8.20I 12.20%NM 12.06%1.46I 68.49%NM 67.75%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.19%1.1%2026-04-09 00:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎8.40I 11.90%NM 11.76%1.46I 68.49%NM 67.66%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.58%1.2%2026-04-09 00:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎8.20I 12.20%NM 12.01%1.46I 68.49%NM 67.47%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.52%1.5%2026-04-09 00:20
Smarkets◎8.00I 12.50%NM 12.22%1.46I 68.49%NM 66.97%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.80%2.3%2026-04-09 00:19