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Atlético Nacional S.A v Millonarios
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Atlético Nacional S.A (Local)
Prediction 60.04%1.67fair odd
EV -4.54%
Edge -2.86%
Kelly -7.69%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.59
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.81%59.95%60.04%63.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.521.531.5969.44%65.71%65.36%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Millonarios (Visit)
Prediction 14.78%6.77fair odd
EV +4.03%
Edge +0.573%
Kelly +0.668%
Growth +0.027%
assuming max odds 7.04
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.44%14.77%14.78%16.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.446.507.0418.18%15.54%15.38%14.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.18%3.97fair odd
EV +3.26%
Edge +0.794%
Kelly +1.05%
Growth +0.034%
assuming max odds 4.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.25%25.29%25.18%26.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.733.794.1030.30%26.83%26.39%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atlético Nacional S.A (Local): 60.04%; Millonarios (Visit): 14.78%; Draw: 25.18%. For Millonarios (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.77. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.04, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.03%.
Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.13%EV -9.34%E -6.19%K -18.32%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.62%EV +3.44%E +0.492%K +0.574%G +0.020% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.25%EV +3.26%E +0.794%K +1.05%G +0.034% | 4.9% | 2026-03-04 23:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.92%EV -9.94%E -6.63%K -19.89%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV +3.44%E +0.492%K +0.574%G +0.020% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV +0.738%E +0.184%K +0.246%G +0.002% | 6.0% | 2026-03-04 23:49 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.92%EV -9.94%E -6.63%K -19.89%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV +3.44%E +0.492%K +0.574%G +0.020% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV +0.738%E +0.184%K +0.246%G +0.002% | 6.0% | 2026-03-04 23:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.92%EV -9.94%E -6.63%K -19.89%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV +3.44%E +0.492%K +0.574%G +0.020% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV +0.738%E +0.184%K +0.246%G +0.002% | 6.0% | 2026-03-04 23:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.92%EV -9.94%E -6.63%K -19.89%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV +3.44%E +0.492%K +0.574%G +0.020% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV +0.738%E +0.184%K +0.246%G +0.002% | 6.0% | 2026-03-04 23:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 62.87%EV -12.34%E -8.46%K -26.84%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.60%EV -0.252%E -0.037%K -0.044%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -1.78%E -0.457%K -0.614%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-04 23:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.84%EV -12.94%E -8.93%K -28.77%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.50%EV -0.252%E -0.037%K -0.044%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.67%EV -3.04%E -0.790%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-04 23:49 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.00%EV -13.55%E -9.41%K -30.78%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.44%EV -0.252%E -0.037%K -0.044%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.56%EV -3.04%E -0.790%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-04 23:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.00%EV -13.55%E -9.41%K -30.78%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.44%EV -0.252%E -0.037%K -0.044%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.56%EV -3.04%E -0.790%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-04 23:49 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.86%EV -4.54%E -2.86%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 7.04I 14.20%NM 13.74%EV +4.03%E +0.573%K +0.668%G +0.027% | 3.81I 26.25%NM 25.40%EV -4.05%E -1.06%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-03-05 00:19 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.43%EV -5.74%E -3.66%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -3.95%E -0.607%K -0.718%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -4.30%E -1.13%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-04 23:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.34%E -4.06%K -11.32%G +0.000% | 6.55I 15.27%NM 14.44%EV -3.21%E -0.490%K -0.578%G +0.000% | 3.79I 26.39%NM 24.95%EV -4.55%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-05 00:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.64%EV -5.14%E -3.25%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 14.96%EV -6.90%E -1.10%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 3.71I 26.95%NM 25.40%EV -6.57%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-04 16:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.31%EV -5.74%E -3.66%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.52%EV -11.34%E -1.89%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -6.82%E -1.84%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-05 00:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.71%EV -8.14%E -5.32%K -15.36%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.33%EV -18.72%E -3.40%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -9.34%E -2.59%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-04 23:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.57%EV -6.94%E -4.48%K -12.62%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.43%EV -5.42%E -0.848%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.01%EV -10.60%E -2.98%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-05 00:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.78%EV -6.94%E -4.48%K -12.62%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.19%EV -11.34%E -1.89%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -11.85%E -3.39%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-05 00:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.78%EV -6.94%E -4.48%K -12.62%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.19%EV -11.34%E -1.89%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -11.85%E -3.39%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-04 23:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.10%EV -8.14%E -5.32%K -15.36%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.07%EV -11.34%E -1.89%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -11.85%E -3.39%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-03-05 00:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.10%EV -8.14%E -5.32%K -15.36%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.07%EV -11.34%E -1.89%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -11.85%E -3.39%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-03-05 00:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.10%EV -8.14%E -5.32%K -15.36%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.07%EV -11.34%E -1.89%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -11.85%E -3.39%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-03-05 00:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.65%EV -8.14%E -5.32%K -15.36%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.96%EV -11.34%E -1.89%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -14.37%E -4.23%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-03-04 23:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 57.81%EV -8.14%E -5.32%K -15.36%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.38%EV -15.03%E -2.61%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.80%EV -16.89%E -5.12%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-03-04 23:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.28% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.21% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.51% | 0.5% | 2026-03-05 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.03% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.40% | 1.0% | 2026-03-05 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.03% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.40% | 1.0% | 2026-03-05 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.84% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.52% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.64% | 1.3% | 2026-03-05 00:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.98% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.47% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.55% | 1.7% | 2026-03-05 00:25 |