The School of Odds
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Platense v Corinthians-SP

Kickoff: 2026-04-10 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Platense (Local)

Prediction 30.42%3.29fair odd
EV +0.396%
Edge +0.120%
Kelly +0.172%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.24%30.42%30.68%31.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.083.103.3034.72%32.46%32.26%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Corinthians-SP (Visit)

Prediction 34.78%2.88fair odd
EV -0.874%
Edge -0.307%
Kelly -0.472%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.56%34.75%34.65%36.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.652.702.8541.67%37.71%37.04%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 34.80%2.87fair odd
EV +0.212%
Edge +0.074%
Kelly +0.113%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.72%34.83%34.67%36.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.682.702.8841.67%37.31%37.04%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Platense (Local): 30.42%; Corinthians-SP (Visit): 34.78%; Draw: 34.80%. For Platense (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.29. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.396%.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.69%EV +0.396%E +0.120%K +0.172%G +0.001%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.29%EV -6.09%E -2.26%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.02%EV +0.212%E +0.074%K +0.113%G +0.000%2.1%2026-04-09 23:55
Svenska Spel🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.69%EV +0.396%E +0.120%K +0.172%G +0.001%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.29%EV -6.09%E -2.26%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.02%EV +0.212%E +0.074%K +0.113%G +0.000%2.1%2026-04-09 23:55
BetRivers🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.58%EV -2.65%E -0.827%K -1.20%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.99%EV -8.53%E -3.24%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.42%EV -4.31%E -1.57%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-09 23:40
Pinnacle🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.56%EV -4.17%E -1.32%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.78%EV -0.874%E -0.307%K -0.472%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.66%EV -6.05%E -2.24%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-09 23:50
BetUS🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.19%EV -4.17%E -1.32%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.22%EV -6.09%E -2.26%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.58%EV -4.31%E -1.57%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-09 23:54
Unibet (NL)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.97%EV -4.17%E -1.32%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.31%EV -9.57%E -3.68%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.72%EV -2.57%E -0.918%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-09 23:55
Grosvenor🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.97%EV -4.17%E -1.32%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.31%EV -9.57%E -3.68%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.72%EV -2.57%E -0.918%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-09 23:53
Unibet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.97%EV -4.17%E -1.32%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.31%EV -9.57%E -3.68%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.72%EV -2.57%E -0.918%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-09 23:55
Casumo🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.97%EV -4.17%E -1.32%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.31%EV -9.57%E -3.68%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.72%EV -2.57%E -0.918%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-09 23:53
1xBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.67%EV -4.17%E -1.32%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.22%EV -10.26%E -3.98%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.11%EV -4.66%E -1.70%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-09 23:54
Unibet (UK)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -4.17%E -1.32%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.86%EV -9.57%E -3.68%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV -6.05%E -2.24%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-09 22:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -4.17%E -1.32%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.54%EV -11.31%E -4.43%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.88%EV -4.31%E -1.57%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-09 23:55
GTbets🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 30.20%EV -5.08%E -1.63%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.29%EV -7.13%E -2.67%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 34.51%EV -5.01%E -1.83%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-09 23:10
BetOnline.ag🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.72%EV -5.69%E -1.83%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.01%EV -2.61%E -0.933%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.27%EV -6.05%E -2.24%K -3.56%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-09 23:25
LowVig.ag🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.72%EV -5.69%E -1.83%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.01%EV -2.61%E -0.933%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.27%EV -6.05%E -2.24%K -3.56%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-09 23:25
Everygame🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -5.69%E -1.83%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -4.35%E -1.58%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -9.53%E -3.67%K -5.96%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-09 23:29
theScore Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -5.69%E -1.83%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -9.57%E -3.68%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -6.05%E -2.24%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-09 22:50
Codere (IT)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.54%EV -5.69%E -1.83%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -11.31%E -4.43%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.55%EV -7.79%E -2.94%K -4.72%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-09 22:49
PMU (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.24%EV -5.69%E -1.83%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.55%EV -13.74%E -5.54%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.21%EV -7.79%E -2.94%K -4.72%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-09 23:50
Coolbet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.19%EV -7.21%E -2.36%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 34.84%EV -5.05%E -1.85%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.97%EV -2.57%E -0.918%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-09 16:50
NordicBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.66%EV -7.21%E -2.36%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.64%EV -3.31%E -1.19%K -1.86%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.70%EV -8.83%E -3.37%K -5.45%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-09 23:45
Betsson🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.66%EV -7.21%E -2.36%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.64%EV -3.31%E -1.19%K -1.86%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.70%EV -8.83%E -3.37%K -5.45%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-09 23:45
LiveScore Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.85%EV -7.21%E -2.36%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.42%EV -13.05%E -5.22%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.72%EV -6.05%E -2.24%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-09 23:54
Virgin Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.85%EV -7.21%E -2.36%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.42%EV -13.05%E -5.22%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.72%EV -6.05%E -2.24%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-09 23:55
Betr (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -8.73%E -2.91%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -6.09%E -2.26%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.07%EV -4.31%E -1.57%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-09 23:35
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.73%E -2.91%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -6.09%E -2.26%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -6.05%E -2.24%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-09 23:45
SportsBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.90%EV -8.73%E -2.91%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -4.35%E -1.58%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.38%EV -8.83%E -3.37%K -5.45%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-09 23:24
PlayUp🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -8.73%E -2.91%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.62%EV -4.35%E -1.58%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -9.53%E -3.67%K -5.96%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-09 23:45
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -8.73%E -2.91%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.71%EV -8.87%E -3.39%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.98%EV -9.53%E -3.67%K -5.96%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-09 23:30
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -8.73%E -2.91%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -6.09%E -2.26%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -13.01%E -5.20%K -8.67%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-09 23:50
888sport🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -8.73%E -2.91%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -6.09%E -2.26%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -13.01%E -5.20%K -8.67%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-09 23:49
888sport (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -8.73%E -2.91%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -6.09%E -2.26%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -13.01%E -5.20%K -8.67%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-09 23:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -8.73%E -2.91%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -6.09%E -2.26%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -13.01%E -5.20%K -8.67%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-09 23:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -10.25%E -3.48%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.52%EV -6.09%E -2.26%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -4.31%E -1.57%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-09 23:35
Unibet (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.53%EV -10.25%E -3.48%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.30%EV -16.53%E -6.89%K -11.80%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.17%EV -11.27%E -4.42%K -7.27%G +0.000%14.8%2026-04-09 22:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 29.41%EV -12.38%E -4.30%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.29%EV -16.53%E -6.89%K -11.80%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.29%EV -16.49%E -6.87%K -11.78%G +0.000%18.1%2026-04-09 23:48
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.55%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.00%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.46%0.7%2026-04-09 23:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.55%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.00%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.46%0.7%2026-04-09 23:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.54%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.76%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.70%0.8%2026-04-09 23:55
Smarkets◎3.20I 31.25%NM 30.65%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.82%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.53%2.0%2026-04-09 23:50