L’École des cotes

Mirassol v LDU Quito

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-07 22:00 UTC

Score final : Mirassol 2–0 LDU Quito

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

46 opérateurs (13 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Mirassol (Local)

Prévision 57.94%1.73cote équitable
EV -3.82%
Avantage -2.30%
Kelly -5.79%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.66

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
54.93%58.35%58.03%62.37%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.471.581.591.6668.03%63.44%62.89%60.24%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

LDU Quito (Visiteur)

Prévision 16.82%5.95cote équitable
EV +17.74%
Avantage +2.53%
Kelly +2.96%
Croissance +0.524%

avec la cote maximale 7.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
13.83%16.51%16.73%18.26%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.805.815.607.0020.83%17.20%17.86%14.29%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 25.24%3.96cote équitable
EV +3.50%
Avantage +0.853%
Kelly +1.13%
Croissance +0.039%

avec la cote maximale 4.10

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
23.73%25.14%25.24%27.82%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.103.703.704.1032.26%26.99%27.03%24.39%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (46 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
ATG (SE)1.56I 64.10%NM 62.37%EV -9.62%E -6.17%K -17.18%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.90%EV +17.74%E +2.53%K +2.96%G +0.524%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.73%EV +3.50%E +0.853%K +1.13%G +0.039%2.8%2026-05-07 21:54
Svenska Spel1.56I 64.10%NM 62.37%EV -9.62%E -6.17%K -17.18%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.90%EV +17.74%E +2.53%K +2.96%G +0.524%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.73%EV +3.50%E +0.853%K +1.13%G +0.039%2.8%2026-05-07 21:55
BetRivers1.54I 64.94%NM 61.61%EV -10.78%E -7.00%K -19.96%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.06%EV +13.53%E +2.00%K +2.35%G +0.318%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.33%EV -1.55%E -0.398%K -0.535%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-07 21:25
Unibet1.52I 65.79%NM 61.92%EV -11.94%E -7.85%K -22.95%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.94%EV +13.53%E +2.00%K +2.35%G +0.318%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -1.55%E -0.398%K -0.535%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-07 21:55
Casumo1.51I 66.23%NM 62.08%EV -12.52%E -8.29%K -24.54%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.89%EV +13.53%E +2.00%K +2.35%G +0.318%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%EV -1.55%E -0.398%K -0.535%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-07 21:55
Grosvenor1.51I 66.23%NM 62.08%EV -12.52%E -8.29%K -24.54%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.89%EV +13.53%E +2.00%K +2.35%G +0.318%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%EV -1.55%E -0.398%K -0.535%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-07 21:54
Unibet (NL)1.51I 66.23%NM 62.08%EV -12.52%E -8.29%K -24.54%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.89%EV +13.53%E +2.00%K +2.35%G +0.318%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%EV -1.55%E -0.398%K -0.535%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-07 21:54
LeoVegas (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.23%EV -13.09%E -8.73%K -26.19%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.83%EV +13.53%E +2.00%K +2.35%G +0.318%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.94%EV -1.55%E -0.398%K -0.535%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-07 21:54
Betr (AU)1.52I 65.79%NM 61.59%EV -11.94%E -7.85%K -22.95%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV +9.33%E +1.43%K +1.70%G +0.158%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.01%EV -1.55%E -0.398%K -0.535%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-07 15:59
PointsBet (AU)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.90%EV -13.09%E -8.73%K -26.19%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.29%EV +9.33%E +1.43%K +1.70%G +0.158%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -1.55%E -0.398%K -0.535%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-07 16:00
betfred_uk1.50I 66.67%NM 61.32%EV -13.09%E -8.73%K -26.19%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV +9.33%E +1.43%K +1.70%G +0.158%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -5.34%E -1.42%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-07 15:59
LiveScore Bet1.47I 68.03%NM 62.00%EV -14.83%E -10.09%K -31.56%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.02%EV +9.33%E +1.43%K +1.70%G +0.158%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.98%EV -4.07%E -1.07%K -1.46%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-07 21:55
Virgin Bet1.47I 68.03%NM 62.00%EV -14.83%E -10.09%K -31.56%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.02%EV +9.33%E +1.43%K +1.70%G +0.158%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.98%EV -4.07%E -1.07%K -1.46%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-07 21:54
PMU (FR)1.47I 68.03%NM 62.00%EV -14.83%E -10.09%K -31.56%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.02%EV +9.33%E +1.43%K +1.70%G +0.158%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.98%EV -4.07%E -1.07%K -1.46%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-07 21:55
LowVig.ag1.58I 63.29%NM 60.32%EV -8.46%E -5.35%K -14.59%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.25%EV +5.12%E +0.820%K +0.976%G +0.050%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.44%EV -1.55%E -0.398%K -0.535%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-07 21:20
BetOnline.ag1.58I 63.29%NM 60.32%EV -8.46%E -5.35%K -14.59%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.25%EV +5.12%E +0.820%K +0.976%G +0.050%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.44%EV -1.55%E -0.398%K -0.535%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-07 21:25
Coolbet1.65I 60.61%NM 58.11%EV -4.40%E -2.67%K -6.78%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.98%EV +0.917%E +0.153%K +0.183%G +0.002%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.91%EV -6.60%E -1.78%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-07 21:49
BetUS1.61I 62.11%NM 59.21%EV -6.72%E -4.17%K -11.02%G +0.000%5.95I 16.81%NM 16.02%EV +0.076%E +0.013%K +0.015%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.76%EV -2.81%E -0.731%K -0.987%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-07 21:54
Pinnacle1.64I 60.98%NM 58.37%EV -4.98%E -3.04%K -7.79%G +0.000%5.87I 17.04%NM 16.31%EV -1.27%E -0.216%K -0.261%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.32%EV -4.58%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-07 21:50
Everygame1.60I 62.50%NM 58.25%EV -7.30%E -4.56%K -12.17%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.21%EV -3.29%E -0.572%K -0.692%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.54%EV -7.86%E -2.15%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-07 21:54
Marathon Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 58.29%EV -7.30%E -4.56%K -12.17%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 16.51%EV -4.97%E -0.880%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.21%EV -6.60%E -1.78%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-07 21:45
GTbets1.60I 62.50%NM 58.89%EV -7.30%E -4.56%K -12.17%G +0.000%5.64I 17.73%NM 16.71%EV -5.14%E -0.911%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.41%EV -2.56%E -0.663%K -0.895%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-07 21:45
Bovada1.66I 60.24%NM 57.50%EV -3.82%E -2.30%K -5.79%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -5.81%E -1.04%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -5.34%E -1.42%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-07 21:49
Suprabets1.63I 61.35%NM 57.30%EV -5.56%E -3.41%K -8.83%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.68%EV -5.81%E -1.04%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.02%EV -9.38%E -2.61%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-07 21:54
Unibet (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -6.14%E -3.79%K -9.91%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.06%EV -7.49%E -1.36%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%EV -5.34%E -1.42%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-07 21:50
PlayUp1.60I 62.50%NM 57.83%EV -7.30%E -4.56%K -12.17%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.82%EV -7.49%E -1.36%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.35%EV -7.86%E -2.15%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-07 21:54
William Hill1.62I 61.73%NM 56.90%EV -6.14%E -3.79%K -9.91%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -7.49%E -1.36%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.34%EV -11.65%E -3.33%K -4.66%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-07 21:49
SportsBet1.61I 62.11%NM 57.05%EV -6.72%E -4.17%K -11.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -7.49%E -1.36%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -11.65%E -3.33%K -4.66%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-07 21:54
888sport1.61I 62.11%NM 57.05%EV -6.72%E -4.17%K -11.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -7.49%E -1.36%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -11.65%E -3.33%K -4.66%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-07 21:50
888sport (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 57.05%EV -6.72%E -4.17%K -11.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -7.49%E -1.36%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -11.65%E -3.33%K -4.66%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-07 21:50
Mr Green (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 57.05%EV -6.72%E -4.17%K -11.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -7.49%E -1.36%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -11.65%E -3.33%K -4.66%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-07 21:49
1xBet1.65I 60.61%NM 57.61%EV -4.40%E -2.67%K -6.78%G +0.000%5.49I 18.21%NM 17.31%EV -7.66%E -1.40%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.08%EV -4.33%E -1.14%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-07 21:54
NordicBet1.65I 60.61%NM 57.09%EV -4.40%E -2.67%K -6.78%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.45%EV -9.17%E -1.70%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.46%EV -6.60%E -1.78%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-07 21:50
Betsson1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -6.14%E -3.79%K -9.91%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -9.17%E -1.70%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -6.60%E -1.78%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-07 21:54
Betway1.65I 60.61%NM 56.41%EV -4.40%E -2.67%K -6.78%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -11.70%E -2.23%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -9.12%E -2.53%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-07 21:50
theScore Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 57.26%EV -6.14%E -3.79%K -9.91%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.67%EV -11.70%E -2.23%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.07%EV -6.60%E -1.78%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-07 21:50
Codere (IT)1.61I 62.11%NM 56.92%EV -6.72%E -4.17%K -11.02%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.62%EV -12.54%E -2.41%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -9.12%E -2.53%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-07 21:50
Unibet (FR)1.55I 64.52%NM 57.25%EV -10.20%E -6.58%K -18.54%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.40%EV -14.22%E -2.79%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -11.65%E -3.33%K -4.66%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-07 21:49
Winamax (DE)1.60I 62.50%NM 57.06%EV -7.30%E -4.56%K -12.17%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -15.90%E -3.18%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.68%EV -6.60%E -1.78%K -2.44%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-07 21:49
Paddy Power1.60I 62.50%NM 55.85%EV -7.30%E -4.56%K -12.17%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.87%EV -15.90%E -3.18%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -14.17%E -4.17%K -5.91%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-07 21:53
Ladbrokes (AU)1.57I 63.69%NM 56.74%EV -9.04%E -5.76%K -15.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -15.90%E -3.18%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -11.65%E -3.33%K -4.66%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-07 21:45
Coral1.57I 63.69%NM 56.74%EV -9.04%E -5.76%K -15.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -15.90%E -3.18%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -11.65%E -3.33%K -4.66%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-07 21:45
Neds1.57I 63.69%NM 56.74%EV -9.04%E -5.76%K -15.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -15.90%E -3.18%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -11.65%E -3.33%K -4.66%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-07 21:45
Ladbrokes (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 56.74%EV -9.04%E -5.76%K -15.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -15.90%E -3.18%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -11.65%E -3.33%K -4.66%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-07 21:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 54.93%EV -9.04%E -5.76%K -15.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.25%EV -15.90%E -3.18%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.82%EV -21.75%E -7.01%K -10.35%G +0.000%16.0%2026-05-07 21:55
Winamax (FR)1.54I 64.94%NM 56.79%EV -10.78%E -7.00%K -19.96%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.22%EV -19.27%E -4.01%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.99%EV -11.65%E -3.33%K -4.66%G +0.000%14.3%2026-05-07 21:49
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (4)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.72I 58.14%NM 57.80%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.04%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.16%0.6%2026-05-07 21:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.72I 58.14%NM 57.80%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.04%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.16%0.6%2026-05-07 21:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.72I 58.14%NM 57.80%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.04%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.16%0.6%2026-05-07 21:55
Smarkets1.72I 58.14%NM 57.60%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.98%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.42%0.9%2026-05-07 21:55