The School of Odds
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Independiente Medellín v CA Juventud

Kickoff: 2026-03-13 00:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Independiente Medellín (Local)

Prediction 62.14%1.61fair odd
EV -3.68%
Edge -2.38%
Kelly -6.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.57%62.34%61.74%67.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.471.481.5574.07%68.04%67.57%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

CA Juventud (Visit)

Prediction 13.07%7.65fair odd
EV +17.62%
Edge +1.96%
Kelly +2.20%
Growth +0.388%

assuming max odds 9.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.45%13.05%13.04%15.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.007.357.009.0016.67%13.60%14.29%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.79%4.03fair odd
EV +5.37%
Edge +1.26%
Kelly +1.65%
Growth +0.089%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.13%24.61%25.22%26.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.833.804.2528.57%26.12%26.32%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Independiente Medellín (Local): 62.14%; CA Juventud (Visit): 13.07%; Draw: 24.79%. For CA Juventud (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.65. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +17.62%.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.18%EV -12.38%E -8.78%K -30.20%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.53%EV +17.62%E +1.96%K +2.20%G +0.388%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.29%EV +5.37%E +1.26%K +1.65%G +0.089%5.6%2026-03-12 23:39
Grosvenor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.34%EV -13.01%E -9.29%K -32.51%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.48%EV +17.62%E +1.96%K +2.20%G +0.388%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.18%EV +5.37%E +1.26%K +1.65%G +0.089%6.1%2026-03-12 20:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.34%EV -13.01%E -9.29%K -32.51%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.48%EV +17.62%E +1.96%K +2.20%G +0.388%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.18%EV +5.37%E +1.26%K +1.65%G +0.089%6.1%2026-03-12 20:50
Unibet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.34%EV -13.01%E -9.29%K -32.51%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.48%EV +17.62%E +1.96%K +2.20%G +0.388%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.18%EV +5.37%E +1.26%K +1.65%G +0.089%6.1%2026-03-12 20:50
Casumo🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.34%EV -13.01%E -9.29%K -32.51%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.48%EV +17.62%E +1.96%K +2.20%G +0.388%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.18%EV +5.37%E +1.26%K +1.65%G +0.089%6.1%2026-03-12 20:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.16%EV -13.01%E -9.29%K -32.51%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV +17.62%E +1.96%K +2.20%G +0.388%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV +4.13%E +0.983%K +1.29%G +0.053%6.3%2026-03-12 23:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.20%EV -16.11%E -11.94%K -46.04%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV +11.09%E +1.30%K +1.48%G +0.164%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.13%EV +1.65%E +0.402%K +0.531%G +0.009%10.2%2026-03-12 20:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.20%EV -16.11%E -11.94%K -46.04%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV +11.09%E +1.30%K +1.48%G +0.164%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.13%EV +1.65%E +0.402%K +0.531%G +0.009%10.2%2026-03-12 20:50
Pinnacle🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.01%EV -6.79%E -4.53%K -13.58%G +0.000%8.26I 12.11%NM 11.44%EV +7.95%E +0.962%K +1.09%G +0.087%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -8.27%E -2.23%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-13 00:04
LowVig.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.91%EV -6.79%E -4.53%K -13.58%G +0.000%8.15I 12.27%NM 11.58%EV +6.51%E +0.799%K +0.911%G +0.059%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -8.27%E -2.23%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-13 00:04
BetOnline.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.91%EV -6.79%E -4.53%K -13.58%G +0.000%8.15I 12.27%NM 11.58%EV +6.51%E +0.799%K +0.911%G +0.059%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -8.27%E -2.23%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-13 00:15
Coolbet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.68%EV -5.55%E -3.65%K -10.67%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%EV +4.55%E +0.569%K +0.650%G +0.030%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.41%EV -7.03%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-13 00:15
Everygame🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.88%EV -6.79%E -4.53%K -13.58%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV +4.55%E +0.569%K +0.650%G +0.030%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.52%EV -13.23%E -3.78%K -5.29%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-13 00:14
1xBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.23%EV -4.31%E -2.80%K -7.97%G +0.000%7.85I 12.74%NM 12.21%EV +2.59%E +0.330%K +0.378%G +0.010%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.56%EV -7.03%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-13 00:14
Marathon Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.20%EV -7.41%E -4.98%K -15.13%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.19%EV -0.676%E -0.089%K -0.102%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.60%EV -10.25%E -2.83%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-13 00:14
SportsBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.18%EV -8.66%E -5.89%K -18.42%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -1.98%E -0.264%K -0.305%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.44%EV -5.79%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-13 00:14
GTbets🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.83%EV -5.55%E -3.65%K -10.67%G +0.000%7.46I 13.40%NM 12.80%EV -2.51%E -0.336%K -0.388%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.36%EV -2.82%E -0.718%K -0.964%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-13 00:14
Bovada🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.12%EV -4.31%E -2.80%K -7.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.67%EV -8.52%E -1.22%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.22%EV -2.07%E -0.524%K -0.702%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-13 00:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.54%EV -6.79%E -4.53%K -13.58%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.40%EV -8.52%E -1.22%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -3.31%E -0.849%K -1.14%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-13 00:14
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.31%EV -6.79%E -4.53%K -13.58%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -8.52%E -1.22%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -10.75%E -2.99%K -4.13%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-13 00:14
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.31%EV -6.79%E -4.53%K -13.58%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -8.52%E -1.22%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -10.75%E -2.99%K -4.13%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-13 00:15
PMU (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 61.95%EV -9.28%E -6.35%K -20.17%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.92%EV -8.52%E -1.22%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.13%EV -10.75%E -2.99%K -4.13%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-13 00:15
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.28%EV -10.52%E -7.31%K -23.91%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.81%EV -8.52%E -1.22%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.91%EV -10.75%E -2.99%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-13 00:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.23%EV -6.79%E -4.53%K -13.58%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.83%EV -11.78%E -1.75%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.94%EV -3.31%E -0.849%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-13 00:15
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.70%EV -3.68%E -2.38%K -6.70%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.24%EV -15.05%E -2.32%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.07%EV -11.99%E -3.38%K -4.70%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-13 00:15
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.57%EV -3.68%E -2.38%K -6.70%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.43%EV -16.36%E -2.56%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.01%EV -11.99%E -3.38%K -4.70%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-13 00:15
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.57%EV -3.68%E -2.38%K -6.70%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.43%EV -16.36%E -2.56%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.01%EV -11.99%E -3.38%K -4.70%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-13 00:14
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 62.67%EV -13.01%E -9.29%K -32.51%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 13.93%EV -17.67%E -2.80%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.40%EV -7.03%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-13 00:14
Codere (IT)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 61.74%EV -9.28%E -6.35%K -20.17%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.54%EV -18.97%E -3.06%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.72%EV -5.79%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-13 00:04
Betclic (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 61.78%EV -11.76%E -8.28%K -28.01%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.38%EV -20.28%E -3.32%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 23.84%EV -8.77%E -2.38%K -3.27%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-13 00:14
Betway🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -4.93%E -3.22%K -9.30%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -21.59%E -3.60%K -4.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -0.832%E -0.208%K -0.277%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-13 00:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.12%EV -8.03%E -5.43%K -16.74%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.08%EV -21.59%E -3.60%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.80%EV -5.79%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-13 00:04
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.12%EV -8.03%E -5.43%K -16.74%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.08%EV -21.59%E -3.60%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.80%EV -5.79%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-13 00:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.12%EV -8.03%E -5.43%K -16.74%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.08%EV -21.59%E -3.60%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.80%EV -5.79%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-13 00:04
Neds🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.12%EV -8.03%E -5.43%K -16.74%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.08%EV -21.59%E -3.60%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.80%EV -5.79%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-13 00:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.55%EV -10.52%E -7.31%K -23.91%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.53%EV -21.59%E -3.60%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.91%EV -13.23%E -3.78%K -5.29%G +0.000%14.7%2026-03-13 00:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.46%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.79%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.0%2026-03-13 00:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.46%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.79%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.0%2026-03-13 00:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.46%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.79%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.75%1.0%2026-03-13 00:15
Smarkets◎1.55I 64.52%NM 63.43%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.99%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.58%1.7%2026-03-13 00:15