L’École des cotes

Cruzeiro v Barcelona SC

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-29 00:30 UTC

Score final : Cruzeiro 4–0 Barcelona SC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

45 opérateurs (13 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Cruzeiro (Local)

Prévision 74.50%1.34cote équitable
EV -4.65%
Avantage -3.63%
Kelly -16.59%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.28

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
71.05%74.45%74.73%76.63%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.201.251.251.2883.33%80.29%80.00%78.13%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Barcelona SC (Visiteur)

Prévision 8.23%12.16cote équitable
EV +15.16%
Avantage +1.08%
Kelly +1.17%
Croissance +0.177%

avec la cote maximale 14.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
6.97%8.30%8.06%10.45%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
8.5011.4411.5014.0011.76%8.74%8.70%7.14%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 17.28%5.79cote équitable
EV +3.85%
Avantage +0.640%
Kelly +0.768%
Croissance +0.030%

avec la cote maximale 6.01

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
15.58%17.25%17.22%18.72%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.805.365.406.0120.83%18.65%18.52%16.64%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (45 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Svenska Spel1.28I 78.13%NM 76.21%EV -4.65%E -3.63%K -16.59%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.97%EV +15.16%E +1.08%K +1.17%G +0.177%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.82%EV +0.218%E +0.038%K +0.045%G +0.000%2.5%2026-05-29 00:19
ATG (SE)1.28I 78.13%NM 76.21%EV -4.65%E -3.63%K -16.59%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.97%EV +15.16%E +1.08%K +1.17%G +0.177%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.82%EV +0.218%E +0.038%K +0.045%G +0.000%2.5%2026-05-29 00:19
LowVig.ag1.27I 78.74%NM 75.03%EV -5.39%E -4.25%K -19.97%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.33%EV +6.94%E +0.534%K +0.578%G +0.040%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.64%EV -6.69%E -1.24%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-28 16:09
BetOnline.ag1.27I 78.74%NM 75.03%EV -5.39%E -4.25%K -19.97%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.33%EV +6.94%E +0.534%K +0.578%G +0.040%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.64%EV -6.69%E -1.24%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-28 16:09
Coolbet1.26I 79.37%NM 75.41%EV -6.14%E -4.87%K -23.60%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.31%EV +6.94%E +0.534%K +0.578%G +0.040%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.28%EV -4.97%E -0.903%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-28 21:49
Grosvenor1.24I 80.65%NM 75.94%EV -7.63%E -6.15%K -31.78%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.24%EV +6.94%E +0.534%K +0.578%G +0.040%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.82%EV -3.24%E -0.578%K -0.704%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-29 00:19
Casumo1.24I 80.65%NM 75.94%EV -7.63%E -6.15%K -31.78%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.24%EV +6.94%E +0.534%K +0.578%G +0.040%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.82%EV -3.24%E -0.578%K -0.704%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-29 00:19
Unibet1.24I 80.65%NM 75.94%EV -7.63%E -6.15%K -31.78%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.24%EV +6.94%E +0.534%K +0.578%G +0.040%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.82%EV -3.24%E -0.578%K -0.704%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-29 00:20
BetRivers1.24I 80.65%NM 75.94%EV -7.63%E -6.15%K -31.78%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.24%EV +6.94%E +0.534%K +0.578%G +0.040%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.82%EV -3.24%E -0.578%K -0.704%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-29 00:19
Unibet (NL)1.24I 80.65%NM 75.94%EV -7.63%E -6.15%K -31.78%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.24%EV +6.94%E +0.534%K +0.578%G +0.040%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.82%EV -3.24%E -0.578%K -0.704%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-29 00:19
LeoVegas (SE)1.23I 81.30%NM 75.86%EV -8.37%E -6.81%K -36.40%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.18%EV +6.94%E +0.534%K +0.578%G +0.040%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.96%EV -4.97%E -0.903%K -1.10%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-29 00:09
Virgin Bet1.20I 83.33%NM 76.07%EV -10.61%E -8.84%K -53.03%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.02%EV +6.94%E +0.534%K +0.578%G +0.040%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.91%EV -6.69%E -1.24%K -1.52%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-29 00:19
LiveScore Bet1.20I 83.33%NM 76.07%EV -10.61%E -8.84%K -53.03%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.02%EV +6.94%E +0.534%K +0.578%G +0.040%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.91%EV -6.69%E -1.24%K -1.52%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-29 00:19
PMU (FR)1.20I 83.33%NM 76.07%EV -10.61%E -8.84%K -53.03%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.02%EV +6.94%E +0.534%K +0.578%G +0.040%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.91%EV -6.69%E -1.24%K -1.52%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-29 00:19
Suprabets1.23I 81.30%NM 76.07%EV -8.37%E -6.81%K -36.40%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.80%EV -1.29%E -0.107%K -0.117%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.13%EV +0.218%E +0.038%K +0.045%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-28 23:58
Betway1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -9.12%E -7.47%K -41.44%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV -1.29%E -0.107%K -0.117%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV +3.67%E +0.612%K +0.735%G +0.027%7.0%2026-05-28 23:30
Marathon Bet1.23I 81.30%NM 75.86%EV -8.37%E -6.81%K -36.40%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -1.29%E -0.107%K -0.117%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.37%EV -1.51%E -0.265%K -0.321%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-29 00:19
Everygame1.22I 81.97%NM 76.11%EV -9.12%E -7.47%K -41.44%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.74%EV -1.29%E -0.107%K -0.117%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.15%EV -0.646%E -0.112%K -0.136%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-28 23:50
PlayUp1.22I 81.97%NM 76.11%EV -9.12%E -7.47%K -41.44%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.74%EV -1.29%E -0.107%K -0.117%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.15%EV -0.646%E -0.112%K -0.136%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-29 00:19
SportsBet1.25I 80.00%NM 73.85%EV -6.88%E -5.50%K -27.52%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -1.29%E -0.107%K -0.117%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -13.61%E -2.72%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-28 21:39
BetUS1.27I 78.74%NM 74.86%EV -5.39%E -4.25%K -19.97%G +0.000%11.65I 8.58%NM 8.16%EV -4.17%E -0.358%K -0.391%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.98%EV -3.24%E -0.578%K -0.704%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-29 00:09
Pinnacle1.22I 81.97%NM 75.71%EV -9.12%E -7.47%K -41.44%G +0.000%11.55I 8.66%NM 8.00%EV -4.99%E -0.432%K -0.473%G +0.000%5.67I 17.64%NM 16.29%EV -2.03%E -0.358%K -0.434%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-29 00:09
Betr (AU)1.28I 78.13%NM 73.14%EV -4.65%E -3.63%K -16.59%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.14%EV -5.40%E -0.470%K -0.514%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -13.61%E -2.72%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-29 00:00
Betsson1.24I 80.65%NM 74.77%EV -7.63%E -6.15%K -31.78%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.06%EV -5.40%E -0.470%K -0.514%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.17%EV -6.69%E -1.24%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-29 00:19
NordicBet1.24I 80.65%NM 74.77%EV -7.63%E -6.15%K -31.78%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.06%EV -5.40%E -0.470%K -0.514%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.17%EV -6.69%E -1.24%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-29 00:20
GTbets1.27I 78.74%NM 74.10%EV -5.39%E -4.25%K -19.97%G +0.000%11.07I 9.03%NM 8.50%EV -8.94%E -0.807%K -0.888%G +0.000%5.41I 18.48%NM 17.40%EV -6.52%E -1.21%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-29 00:09
Bovada1.27I 78.74%NM 74.83%EV -5.39%E -4.25%K -19.97%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -9.51%E -0.865%K -0.951%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.53%EV -0.646%E -0.112%K -0.136%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-28 23:48
PointsBet (AU)1.28I 78.13%NM 72.87%EV -4.65%E -3.63%K -16.59%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.48%EV -9.51%E -0.865%K -0.951%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -13.61%E -2.72%K -3.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-28 23:50
betfred_uk1.25I 80.00%NM 73.33%EV -6.88%E -5.50%K -27.52%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -9.51%E -0.865%K -0.951%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -13.61%E -2.72%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-28 23:49
888sport1.25I 80.00%NM 73.33%EV -6.88%E -5.50%K -27.52%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -9.51%E -0.865%K -0.951%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -13.61%E -2.72%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-29 00:19
888sport (SE)1.25I 80.00%NM 73.33%EV -6.88%E -5.50%K -27.52%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -9.51%E -0.865%K -0.951%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -13.61%E -2.72%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-29 00:19
Mr Green (SE)1.25I 80.00%NM 73.33%EV -6.88%E -5.50%K -27.52%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -9.51%E -0.865%K -0.951%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -13.61%E -2.72%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-29 00:19
William Hill1.25I 80.00%NM 73.33%EV -6.88%E -5.50%K -27.52%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -9.51%E -0.865%K -0.951%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -13.61%E -2.72%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-29 00:19
Paddy Power1.22I 81.97%NM 73.81%EV -9.12%E -7.47%K -41.44%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.19%EV -9.51%E -0.865%K -0.951%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.01%EV -13.61%E -2.72%K -3.40%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-28 21:39
theScore Bet1.28I 78.13%NM 73.49%EV -4.65%E -3.63%K -16.59%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%EV -17.74%E -1.77%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.10%EV -4.97%E -0.903%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-29 00:19
Codere (IT)1.25I 80.00%NM 73.24%EV -6.88%E -5.50%K -27.52%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.15%EV -17.74%E -1.77%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.61%EV -10.15%E -1.95%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-29 00:19
Betclic (FR)1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -6.88%E -5.50%K -27.52%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -17.74%E -1.77%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -13.61%E -2.72%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-29 00:08
Unibet (FR)1.22I 81.97%NM 73.21%EV -9.12%E -7.47%K -41.44%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.93%EV -17.74%E -1.77%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.86%EV -13.61%E -2.72%K -3.40%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-29 00:19
1xBet1.28I 78.13%NM 74.23%EV -4.65%E -3.63%K -16.59%G +0.000%9.54I 10.48%NM 9.96%EV -21.52%E -2.26%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.01I 16.64%NM 15.81%EV +3.85%E +0.640%K +0.768%G +0.030%5.2%2026-05-29 00:19
Winamax (DE)1.24I 80.65%NM 73.52%EV -7.63%E -6.15%K -31.78%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.60%EV -21.85%E -2.30%K -2.57%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.88%EV -6.69%E -1.24%K -1.52%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-29 00:19
Winamax (FR)1.23I 81.30%NM 72.82%EV -8.37%E -6.81%K -36.40%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.95%EV -25.97%E -2.89%K -3.25%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.23%EV -10.15%E -1.95%K -2.42%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-29 00:20
Ladbrokes (UK)1.25I 80.00%NM 71.05%EV -6.88%E -5.50%K -27.52%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.45%EV -30.08%E -3.54%K -4.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.50%EV -17.06%E -3.55%K -4.49%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-29 00:19
Ladbrokes (AU)1.25I 80.00%NM 71.05%EV -6.88%E -5.50%K -27.52%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.45%EV -30.08%E -3.54%K -4.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.50%EV -17.06%E -3.55%K -4.49%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-29 00:20
Neds1.25I 80.00%NM 71.05%EV -6.88%E -5.50%K -27.52%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.45%EV -30.08%E -3.54%K -4.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.50%EV -17.06%E -3.55%K -4.49%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-29 00:19
Coral1.25I 80.00%NM 71.05%EV -6.88%E -5.50%K -27.52%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.45%EV -30.08%E -3.54%K -4.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.50%EV -17.06%E -3.55%K -4.49%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-29 00:19
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (4)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.27I 78.74%NM 78.12%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.84%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.03%0.8%2026-05-29 00:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.27I 78.74%NM 78.12%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.84%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.03%0.8%2026-05-29 00:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.27I 78.74%NM 78.12%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.84%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.03%0.8%2026-05-29 00:20
Smarkets1.26I 79.37%NM 77.71%14.01I 7.14%NM 6.99%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.30%2.1%2026-05-29 00:20