Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Club Always Ready v Lanus

Kickoff: 2026-05-06 00:30 UTC

Final: Club Always Ready 4–0 Lanus

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

45 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Club Always Ready (Local)

Prediction 50.40%1.98fair odd
EV -3.23%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -3.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.76%50.76%50.05%55.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.821.831.9258.48%54.92%54.64%52.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lanus (Visit)

Prediction 21.91%4.56fair odd
EV +6.25%
Edge +1.29%
Kelly +1.62%
Growth +0.101%

assuming max odds 4.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.64%21.75%22.28%23.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.264.304.8525.97%23.49%23.26%20.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.69%3.61fair odd
EV +6.61%
Edge +1.72%
Kelly +2.32%
Growth +0.153%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.16%27.50%27.67%28.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.423.403.8531.25%29.21%29.41%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Club Always Ready (Local): 50.40%; Lanus (Visit): 21.91%; Draw: 27.69%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.61. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.61%.

Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.39%EV -7.76%E -4.24%K -9.35%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.24%EV +0.770%E +0.167%K +0.214%G +0.002%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.38%EV +6.61%E +1.72%K +2.32%G +0.153%2.4%2026-05-06 00:19
Svenska Spel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.39%EV -7.76%E -4.24%K -9.35%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.24%EV +0.770%E +0.167%K +0.214%G +0.002%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.38%EV +6.61%E +1.72%K +2.32%G +0.153%2.4%2026-05-06 00:19
BetRivers🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.18%EV -13.81%E -8.08%K -19.45%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%EV +5.15%E +1.07%K +1.36%G +0.070%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.16%EV +3.84%E +1.02%K +1.40%G +0.054%6.0%2026-05-06 00:04
Casumo🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.31%EV -11.29%E -6.42%K -14.86%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.33%EV -3.61%E -0.821%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV +2.46%E +0.664%K +0.910%G +0.022%6.6%2026-05-06 00:20
Grosvenor🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.31%EV -11.29%E -6.42%K -14.86%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.33%EV -3.61%E -0.821%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV +2.46%E +0.664%K +0.910%G +0.022%6.6%2026-05-06 00:20
Unibet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.31%EV -11.29%E -6.42%K -14.86%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.33%EV -3.61%E -0.821%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV +2.46%E +0.664%K +0.910%G +0.022%6.6%2026-05-06 00:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.31%EV -11.29%E -6.42%K -14.86%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.33%EV -3.61%E -0.821%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV +2.46%E +0.664%K +0.910%G +0.022%6.6%2026-05-06 00:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.27%EV -11.80%E -6.74%K -15.73%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -3.61%E -0.821%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.54%EV +1.07%E +0.294%K +0.405%G +0.004%7.3%2026-05-06 00:24
Virgin Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.21%EV -13.81%E -8.08%K -19.45%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.16%EV -5.80%E -1.35%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.63%EV -1.70%E -0.478%K -0.665%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-06 00:24
PMU (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.21%EV -13.81%E -8.08%K -19.45%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.16%EV -5.80%E -1.35%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.63%EV -1.70%E -0.478%K -0.665%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-06 00:24
LiveScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.21%EV -13.81%E -8.08%K -19.45%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.16%EV -5.80%E -1.35%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.63%EV -1.70%E -0.478%K -0.665%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-06 00:25
1xBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.53%EV -3.23%E -1.68%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.04I 24.75%NM 23.54%EV -11.50%E -2.85%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.94%EV -2.25%E -0.637%K -0.889%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-06 00:24
BetOnline.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.95%EV -7.76%E -4.24%K -9.35%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.89%EV -0.325%E -0.071%K -0.092%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.16%EV -3.08%E -0.880%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-06 00:04
LowVig.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.95%EV -7.76%E -4.24%K -9.35%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.89%EV -0.325%E -0.071%K -0.092%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.16%EV -3.08%E -0.880%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-06 00:05
BetUS🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.95%EV -7.76%E -4.24%K -9.35%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.89%EV -0.325%E -0.071%K -0.092%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.16%EV -3.08%E -0.880%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-06 00:24
Bovada🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.05%EV -3.73%E -1.95%K -4.10%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.23%EV -5.80%E -1.35%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.71%EV -4.46%E -1.29%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-06 00:18
Winamax (DE)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.02%EV -7.26%E -3.95%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -13.47%E -3.41%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.68%EV -4.46%E -1.29%K -1.82%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-06 00:19
GTbets🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -6.76%E -3.65%K -7.95%G +0.000%4.21I 23.75%NM 22.19%EV -7.77%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.31%EV -5.30%E -1.55%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-06 00:23
Coolbet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.34%EV -8.27%E -4.54%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.64%EV +6.25%E +1.29%K +1.62%G +0.101%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.02%EV -5.85%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-06 00:09
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.12%EV -5.75%E -3.07%K -6.61%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -7.99%E -1.90%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -5.85%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-06 00:19
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -3.73%E -1.95%K -4.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -12.37%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.85%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-06 00:14
Betr (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.31%EV -8.27%E -4.54%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -3.61%E -0.821%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -5.85%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-06 00:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.83%EV -9.28%E -5.15%K -11.60%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -1.42%E -0.316%K -0.406%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.85%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-06 00:19
Pinnacle🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.55%EV -5.24%E -2.79%K -5.96%G +0.000%4.49I 22.27%NM 21.17%EV -1.64%E -0.365%K -0.470%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.28%EV -6.96%E -2.07%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-06 00:15
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.65%EV -5.24%E -2.79%K -5.96%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.49%EV -9.09%E -2.19%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -7.23%E -2.16%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-06 00:24
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.65%EV -5.24%E -2.79%K -5.96%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.49%EV -9.09%E -2.19%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -7.23%E -2.16%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-06 00:24
Marathon Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.21%EV -8.27%E -4.54%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.71%EV -1.42%E -0.316%K -0.406%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.07%EV -8.06%E -2.43%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-06 00:25
Everygame🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.48%EV -6.76%E -3.65%K -7.95%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -3.61%E -0.821%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.30%EV -8.62%E -2.61%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-06 00:14
PlayUp🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.76%EV -4.24%E -2.23%K -4.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -12.37%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -8.62%E -2.61%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-06 00:24
SportsBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.40%EV -9.28%E -5.15%K -11.60%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -1.42%E -0.316%K -0.406%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -8.62%E -2.61%K -3.75%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-06 00:09
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.99%EV -9.28%E -5.15%K -11.60%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.20%EV -5.14%E -1.19%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -8.62%E -2.61%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-06 00:19
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -6.76%E -3.65%K -7.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -12.37%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -8.62%E -2.61%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-06 00:15
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -6.76%E -3.65%K -7.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -12.37%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -8.62%E -2.61%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-06 00:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -6.76%E -3.65%K -7.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -12.37%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -8.62%E -2.61%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-06 00:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -6.76%E -3.65%K -7.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -12.37%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -8.62%E -2.61%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-06 00:14
Codere (IT)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -6.76%E -3.65%K -7.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -12.37%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -8.62%E -2.61%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-06 00:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.68%EV -9.28%E -5.15%K -11.60%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.23%EV -15.66%E -4.07%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -8.62%E -2.61%K -3.75%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-06 00:20
Suprabets🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.26%EV -6.25%E -3.36%K -7.27%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -3.61%E -0.821%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.50%EV -9.17%E -2.80%K -4.02%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-06 00:16
Betclic (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.44%EV -7.26%E -3.95%K -8.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -12.37%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 27.82%EV -9.45%E -2.89%K -4.16%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-06 00:18
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.48%EV -11.80%E -6.74%K -15.73%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.80%EV -5.14%E -1.19%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.72%EV -10.00%E -3.08%K -4.45%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-06 00:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.99%EV -7.76%E -4.24%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99%EV -14.56%E -3.73%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -11.39%E -3.56%K -5.18%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-06 00:15
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.99%EV -7.76%E -4.24%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99%EV -14.56%E -3.73%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -11.39%E -3.56%K -5.18%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-06 00:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.99%EV -7.76%E -4.24%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99%EV -14.56%E -3.73%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -11.39%E -3.56%K -5.18%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-06 00:15
Neds🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.99%EV -7.76%E -4.24%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99%EV -14.56%E -3.73%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -11.39%E -3.56%K -5.18%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-06 00:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 49.69%EV -10.28%E -5.78%K -13.19%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.68%EV -14.56%E -3.73%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.64%EV -11.39%E -3.56%K -5.18%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-06 00:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.96I 51.02%NM 50.78%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.18%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.04%0.5%2026-05-06 00:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.96I 51.02%NM 50.78%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.18%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.04%0.5%2026-05-06 00:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.96I 51.02%NM 50.78%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.18%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.04%0.5%2026-05-06 00:20
Smarkets1.95I 51.28%NM 50.48%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.40%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.12%1.6%2026-05-06 00:19