Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Portland Timbers v Tijuana

2026-08-14 02:30 UTC — Leagues Cup

Resultado del partido

37 corredores (12 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Portland Timbers (Local)

Predicción 47.93%2.09momio equitativo
EV -5.09%
Ventaja -2.57%
Kelly -5.19%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.98

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
46.58%48.14%47.99%49.99%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.871.931.931.9853.48%51.94%51.81%50.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Tijuana (Visitante)

Predicción 27.62%3.62momio equitativo
EV +2.20%
Ventaja +0.594%
Kelly +0.814%
Crecimiento +0.018%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.40%27.34%27.52%28.70%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.103.353.353.7032.26%29.87%29.85%27.03%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 24.44%4.09momio equitativo
EV -2.22%
Ventaja -0.556%
Kelly -0.741%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.42%24.52%24.50%26.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.603.833.904.0027.78%26.12%25.64%25.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Portland Timbers (Local): 47.93%; Tijuana (Visitante): 27.62%; Empate: 24.44%. Para Tijuana (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 3.62. 2 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 3.70, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +2.20%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (37 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Caesars🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -6.53%E -3.35%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV +2.20%E +0.594%K +0.814%G +0.018%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -12.00%E -3.33%K -4.62%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-12 14:24
Pinnacle🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.99%EV -10.36%E -5.54%K -11.91%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.40%EV +1.65%E +0.447%K +0.614%G +0.010%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -7.11%E -1.87%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-12 14:25
1xBet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.31%EV -9.40%E -4.98%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.03%EV -1.12%E -0.312%K -0.432%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.66%EV -7.60%E -2.01%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-12 14:39
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.37%EV -10.36%E -5.54%K -11.91%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.01%EV -1.94%E -0.548%K -0.762%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -8.33%E -2.22%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-12 14:35
Bovada🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -6.53%E -3.35%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.20%EV -4.71%E -1.36%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -7.11%E -1.87%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-12 14:33
Coolbet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.14%EV -5.09%E -2.57%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.03%EV -6.09%E -1.79%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.83%EV -2.22%E -0.556%K -0.741%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-12 14:29
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -6.53%E -3.35%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -6.09%E -1.79%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -2.22%E -0.556%K -0.741%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-12 12:29
FanDuel🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.23%EV -6.53%E -3.35%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.09%E -1.79%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -4.67%E -1.20%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-12 14:30
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -8.45%E -4.42%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.09%E -1.79%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -2.22%E -0.556%K -0.741%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-12 14:29
theScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -6.53%E -3.35%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -6.09%E -1.79%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -7.11%E -1.87%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-12 13:34
Dabble (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -6.53%E -3.35%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -6.09%E -1.79%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -12.00%E -3.33%K -4.62%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-12 14:29
Virgin Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.30%EV -7.01%E -3.61%K -7.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -7.47%E -2.23%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.72%EV -3.45%E -0.872%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-12 11:54
LiveScore Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.30%EV -7.01%E -3.61%K -7.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -7.47%E -2.23%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.72%EV -3.45%E -0.872%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-12 11:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -7.49%E -3.88%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -7.47%E -2.23%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.66%EV -3.45%E -0.872%K -1.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-12 11:54
Unibet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -7.49%E -3.88%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -7.47%E -2.23%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.66%EV -3.45%E -0.872%K -1.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-12 11:54
PMU (FR)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -7.49%E -3.88%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -7.47%E -2.23%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.66%EV -3.45%E -0.872%K -1.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-12 11:54
TABtouch🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -7.49%E -3.88%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -7.47%E -2.23%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.66%EV -3.45%E -0.872%K -1.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-12 11:54
Unibet (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -7.49%E -3.88%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -7.47%E -2.23%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.66%EV -3.45%E -0.872%K -1.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-12 11:54
Unibet (NL)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -7.49%E -3.88%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -7.47%E -2.23%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.66%EV -3.45%E -0.872%K -1.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-12 11:54
Casumo🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -7.49%E -3.88%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -7.47%E -2.23%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.66%EV -3.45%E -0.872%K -1.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-12 11:54
Grosvenor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -7.49%E -3.88%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -7.47%E -2.23%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.66%EV -3.45%E -0.872%K -1.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-12 11:54
Svenska Spel🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -7.49%E -3.88%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -7.47%E -2.23%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.66%EV -3.45%E -0.872%K -1.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-12 11:54
Bally Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -7.49%E -3.88%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -7.47%E -2.23%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.66%EV -3.45%E -0.872%K -1.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-12 11:54
ATG (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -7.49%E -3.88%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -7.47%E -2.23%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.66%EV -3.45%E -0.872%K -1.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-12 11:54
betPARX🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -7.49%E -3.88%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.90%EV -7.47%E -2.23%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.66%EV -3.45%E -0.872%K -1.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-12 11:59
BetRivers🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.29%EV -7.49%E -3.88%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -7.47%E -2.23%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -4.67%E -1.20%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-12 11:54
Betsson🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.41%EV -6.53%E -3.35%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.60%EV -7.47%E -2.23%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.99%EV -9.56%E -2.58%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-12 13:35
NordicBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.41%EV -6.53%E -3.35%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.60%EV -7.47%E -2.23%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.99%EV -9.56%E -2.58%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-12 13:34
SportsBet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -8.45%E -4.42%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -8.85%E -2.68%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -7.11%E -1.87%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-12 14:29
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -8.45%E -4.42%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -8.85%E -2.68%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -7.11%E -1.87%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-12 14:28
Winamax (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.61%EV -8.92%E -4.70%K -9.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.27%EV -11.61%E -3.63%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.12%EV -8.33%E -2.22%K -3.03%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-12 13:35
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.01%EV -8.45%E -4.42%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -11.61%E -3.63%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.94%EV -12.00%E -3.33%K -4.62%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-12 14:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.35%EV -9.88%E -5.26%K -11.23%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.26%EV -12.99%E -4.12%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.39%EV -10.78%E -2.95%K -4.07%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-12 13:35
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.58%EV -8.45%E -4.42%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -14.37%E -4.64%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.72%EV -12.00%E -3.33%K -4.62%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-12 14:25
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.58%EV -8.45%E -4.42%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -14.37%E -4.64%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.72%EV -12.00%E -3.33%K -4.62%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-12 14:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.58%EV -8.45%E -4.42%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -14.37%E -4.64%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.72%EV -12.00%E -3.33%K -4.62%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-12 14:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.58%EV -8.45%E -4.42%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -14.37%E -4.64%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.72%EV -12.00%E -3.33%K -4.62%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-12 14:25
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.61%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.92%5.8%2026-08-12 15:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.61%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.92%5.8%2026-08-12 15:20
Smarkets1.90I 52.63%NM 48.88%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%7.7%2026-08-12 15:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-12 15:14

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