Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Philadelphia Union v Santos Laguna

Início: 2026-08-13 23:00 UTC

Final: Philadelphia Union 0–2 Santos Laguna

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

45 casas de apostas (15 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Philadelphia Union (Local)

Previsão 51.75%1.93odd justa
EV -3.24%
Vantagem -1.73%
Kelly -3.72%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.87

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
49.28%51.97%51.54%55.07%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.651.771.741.8760.61%56.65%57.47%53.48%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Santos Laguna (Visitante)

Previsão 24.06%4.16odd justa
EV +8.25%
Vantagem +1.83%
Kelly +2.36%
Crescimento +0.195%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.50

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
20.63%23.78%24.07%25.53%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.503.934.004.5028.57%25.44%25.00%22.22%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 24.20%4.13odd justa
EV -0.784%
Vantagem -0.191%
Kelly -0.253%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.10

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
22.68%24.25%24.39%26.09%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.403.883.904.1029.41%25.75%25.64%24.39%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Philadelphia Union (Local): 51.75%; Santos Laguna (Visitante): 24.06%; Empate: 24.20%. Para Santos Laguna (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 4.16. 7 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 4.50, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +8.25%.

Odds das casas de apostas (45 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.94%EV -12.55%E -7.43%K -18.19%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV +8.25%E +1.83%K +2.36%G +0.195%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.43%EV -8.04%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-13 22:34
SportsBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.39%EV -13.07%E -7.78%K -19.22%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.25%EV +3.44%E +0.800%K +1.04%G +0.036%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.37%EV -9.25%E -2.47%K -3.37%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-13 22:33
Caesars🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.22%EV -6.86%E -3.81%K -8.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV +1.03%E +0.246%K +0.323%G +0.003%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -10.46%E -2.83%K -3.88%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-13 22:52
Bet Victor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.77%EV -13.59%E -8.13%K -20.28%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.78%EV +1.03%E +0.246%K +0.323%G +0.003%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -5.62%E -1.44%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-13 22:52
betano_uk🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.07%EV -14.62%E -8.86%K -22.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.63%EV +1.03%E +0.246%K +0.323%G +0.003%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.30%EV -5.62%E -1.44%K -1.94%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-13 22:55
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.08%EV -13.59%E -8.13%K -20.28%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.50%EV +1.03%E +0.246%K +0.323%G +0.003%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.41%EV -10.46%E -2.83%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-13 22:33
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.08%EV -13.59%E -8.13%K -20.28%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.50%EV +1.03%E +0.246%K +0.323%G +0.003%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.41%EV -10.46%E -2.83%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-13 22:49
1xBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.16%EV -3.75%E -2.02%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.79%EV -3.78%E -0.944%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.04%EV -8.04%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-13 22:55
Coolbet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.86%E -3.81%K -8.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -3.78%E -0.944%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -3.20%E -0.801%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-13 22:45
Fanatics🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.86%E -3.81%K -8.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -3.78%E -0.944%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -3.20%E -0.801%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-13 22:49
LiveScore Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.92%EV -10.48%E -6.06%K -14.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -3.78%E -0.944%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -0.784%E -0.191%K -0.253%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-13 22:49
Unibet (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.92%EV -10.48%E -6.06%K -14.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -3.78%E -0.944%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -0.784%E -0.191%K -0.253%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-13 22:49
Virgin Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.92%EV -10.48%E -6.06%K -14.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -3.78%E -0.944%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -0.784%E -0.191%K -0.253%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-13 22:49
Unibet (NL)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.92%EV -10.48%E -6.06%K -14.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -3.78%E -0.944%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -0.784%E -0.191%K -0.253%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-13 22:49
PMU (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.92%EV -10.48%E -6.06%K -14.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -3.78%E -0.944%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -0.784%E -0.191%K -0.253%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-13 22:49
Casumo🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.92%EV -10.48%E -6.06%K -14.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -3.78%E -0.944%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -0.784%E -0.191%K -0.253%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-13 22:49
TABtouch🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.92%EV -10.48%E -6.06%K -14.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -3.78%E -0.944%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -0.784%E -0.191%K -0.253%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-13 22:49
Unibet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.92%EV -10.48%E -6.06%K -14.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -3.78%E -0.944%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -0.784%E -0.191%K -0.253%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-13 22:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.92%EV -10.48%E -6.06%K -14.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -3.78%E -0.944%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -0.784%E -0.191%K -0.253%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-13 22:49
Grosvenor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.92%EV -10.48%E -6.06%K -14.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -3.78%E -0.944%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -0.784%E -0.191%K -0.253%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-13 22:49
Bally Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.92%EV -10.48%E -6.06%K -14.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -3.78%E -0.944%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -0.784%E -0.191%K -0.253%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-13 22:48
betPARX🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.92%EV -10.48%E -6.06%K -14.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -3.78%E -0.944%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -0.784%E -0.191%K -0.253%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-13 22:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.92%EV -10.48%E -6.06%K -14.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -3.78%E -0.944%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -0.784%E -0.191%K -0.253%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-13 22:49
ATG (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.92%EV -10.48%E -6.06%K -14.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -3.78%E -0.944%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -0.784%E -0.191%K -0.253%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-13 22:49
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -9.96%E -5.73%K -13.46%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -3.78%E -0.944%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -3.20%E -0.801%K -1.07%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-13 22:49
BetRivers🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.07%EV -11.00%E -6.39%K -15.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -3.78%E -0.944%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.68%EV -0.784%E -0.191%K -0.253%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-13 22:49
Pinnacle🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.41%EV -4.27%E -2.31%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.97I 25.19%NM 23.96%EV -4.50%E -1.13%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.64%EV -6.59%E -1.71%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-13 22:55
ReBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.79%EV -4.27%E -2.31%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.26%EV -4.98%E -1.26%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -3.20%E -0.801%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-13 22:44
BetOnline.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.95%EV -3.24%E -1.73%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.68%EV -7.14%E -1.85%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 24.37%EV -5.38%E -1.38%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-13 22:43
LowVig.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.95%EV -3.24%E -1.73%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.68%EV -7.14%E -1.85%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 24.37%EV -5.38%E -1.38%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-13 22:44
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -6.86%E -3.81%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.01%EV -7.39%E -1.92%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%EV -9.25%E -2.47%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-13 22:50
Bovada🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -4.27%E -2.31%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -8.59%E -2.26%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -8.04%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-13 22:48
NordicBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.24%EV -5.82%E -3.20%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -8.59%E -2.26%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.22%EV -6.83%E -1.78%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-13 22:44
Betsson🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.24%EV -5.82%E -3.20%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -8.59%E -2.26%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.22%EV -6.83%E -1.78%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-13 22:44
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.67%EV -6.86%E -3.81%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -8.59%E -2.26%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -5.62%E -1.44%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-13 22:44
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -6.86%E -3.81%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -8.59%E -2.26%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -8.04%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-13 22:54
Fliff🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.61%EV -8.41%E -4.75%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.04%EV -8.59%E -2.26%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -9.25%E -2.47%K -3.37%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-13 22:55
Dabble (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.34%EV -4.27%E -2.31%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -9.79%E -2.61%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -9.25%E -2.47%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-13 22:54
Winamax (DE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.26%EV -7.89%E -4.43%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -13.40%E -3.72%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.40%EV -5.62%E -1.44%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-13 22:44
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.28%EV -6.86%E -3.81%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -13.40%E -3.72%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -17.72%E -5.21%K -7.38%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-13 22:55
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.28%EV -6.86%E -3.81%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -13.40%E -3.72%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -17.72%E -5.21%K -7.38%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-13 22:54
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.28%EV -6.86%E -3.81%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -13.40%E -3.72%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -17.72%E -5.21%K -7.38%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-13 22:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.28%EV -6.86%E -3.81%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -13.40%E -3.72%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -17.72%E -5.21%K -7.38%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-13 22:54
Winamax (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.33%EV -9.96%E -5.73%K -13.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.16%EV -14.60%E -4.11%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.51%EV -8.04%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-13 22:44
BetMGM🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -6.86%E -3.81%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -15.80%E -4.52%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -12.88%E -3.58%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-13 22:44
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (4)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Smarkets◎1.87I 53.48%NM 58.32%5.90I 16.95%NM 18.48%4.70I 21.28%NM 23.20%-8.3%2026-08-13 22:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.33%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.55%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-08-13 22:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.33%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.55%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-08-13 22:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.33%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.55%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-08-13 22:50