The School of Odds
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Inter Miami CF v Monterrey

Kickoff: 2026-08-09 00:00 UTC

Final: Inter Miami CF 1–2 Monterrey

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

44 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Inter Miami CF (Local)

Prediction 40.78%2.45fair odd
EV -2.13%
Edge -0.886%
Kelly -1.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.52%40.96%40.84%43.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.232.192.4047.62%44.94%45.66%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Monterrey (Visit)

Prediction 35.43%2.82fair odd
EV -0.798%
Edge -0.285%
Kelly -0.443%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.57%35.28%35.45%37.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.672.682.8040.00%37.45%37.31%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.79%4.20fair odd
EV -1.51%
Edge -0.365%
Kelly -0.481%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.02%23.76%23.71%24.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.903.954.1427.03%25.62%25.32%24.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Inter Miami CF (Local): 40.78%; Monterrey (Visit): 35.43%; Draw: 23.79%. For Monterrey (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.82. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.80, with an expected value of -0.798%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.73%EV -2.13%E -0.886%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.24%EV -9.30%E -3.63%K -5.96%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 23.03%EV -1.51%E -0.365%K -0.481%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-08 23:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.73%EV -2.13%E -0.886%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.24%EV -9.30%E -3.63%K -5.96%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 23.03%EV -1.51%E -0.365%K -0.481%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-08 23:55
Pinnacle🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 40.28%EV -2.53%E -1.06%K -1.82%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 35.53%EV -3.99%E -1.47%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.19%EV -5.32%E -1.34%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-08 23:50
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.42%EV -4.17%E -1.77%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.11%E -2.31%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.74%EV -4.84%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 23:50
Dabble (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.52%EV -4.17%E -1.77%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.72%EV -7.88%E -3.03%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -10.79%E -2.88%K -3.92%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-08 23:49
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.21%EV -6.20%E -2.70%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -4.34%E -1.61%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.69%EV -4.84%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-08 23:50
Caesars🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -6.20%E -2.70%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.53%EV -6.11%E -2.31%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -4.84%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-08 23:54
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.69%EV -6.20%E -2.70%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.31%EV -6.11%E -2.31%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -7.22%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 23:45
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -6.20%E -2.70%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.75%EV -7.88%E -3.03%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -7.22%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-08 23:55
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -6.20%E -2.70%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.75%EV -7.88%E -3.03%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -7.22%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-08 23:54
NordicBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.06%EV -7.02%E -3.08%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.93%EV -5.05%E -1.88%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.01%EV -7.22%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 23:50
Betsson🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.06%EV -7.02%E -3.08%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.93%EV -5.05%E -1.88%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.01%EV -7.22%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 23:50
1xBet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.83%EV -7.43%E -3.27%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.66%EV -2.92%E -1.07%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.04I 24.75%NM 23.51%EV -3.89%E -0.963%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 23:54
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.96%EV -8.24%E -3.66%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.78%EV -6.11%E -2.31%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-08 23:40
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.41%EV -8.24%E -3.66%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.66%EV -9.65%E -3.79%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.93%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-08 23:50
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.13%EV -8.24%E -3.66%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -11.43%E -4.57%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.76%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-08 23:54
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.87%EV -8.24%E -3.66%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.88%EV -11.43%E -4.57%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.25%EV -11.98%E -3.24%K -4.44%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-08 23:48
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -10.28%E -4.67%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -0.798%E -0.285%K -0.443%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -4.84%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-08 23:54
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -10.28%E -4.67%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.65%EV -9.65%E -3.79%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.02%EV -6.03%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-08 23:49
Fliff🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.08%EV -10.28%E -4.67%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.44%EV -9.65%E -3.79%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.48%EV -8.41%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-08 23:55
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.67%EV -10.28%E -4.67%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.79%EV -11.43%E -4.57%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.54%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-08 23:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.67%EV -10.28%E -4.67%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.79%EV -11.43%E -4.57%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.54%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-08 23:50
PMU (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.91%EV -11.10%E -5.09%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.41%EV -0.798%E -0.285%K -0.443%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.68%EV -6.03%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 23:55
TABtouch🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.91%EV -11.10%E -5.09%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.41%EV -0.798%E -0.285%K -0.443%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.68%EV -6.03%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 23:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.91%EV -11.10%E -5.09%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.41%EV -0.798%E -0.285%K -0.443%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.68%EV -6.03%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 23:55
Casumo🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.91%EV -11.10%E -5.09%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.41%EV -0.798%E -0.285%K -0.443%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.68%EV -6.03%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 23:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.91%EV -11.10%E -5.09%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.41%EV -0.798%E -0.285%K -0.443%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.68%EV -6.03%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 23:55
Unibet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.91%EV -11.10%E -5.09%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.41%EV -0.798%E -0.285%K -0.443%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.68%EV -6.03%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 23:55
Grosvenor🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.91%EV -11.10%E -5.09%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.41%EV -0.798%E -0.285%K -0.443%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.68%EV -6.03%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 23:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.91%EV -11.10%E -5.09%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.41%EV -0.798%E -0.285%K -0.443%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.68%EV -6.03%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 23:54
Virgin Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.91%EV -11.10%E -5.09%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.41%EV -0.798%E -0.285%K -0.443%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.68%EV -6.03%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 23:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.91%EV -11.10%E -5.09%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.41%EV -0.798%E -0.285%K -0.443%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.68%EV -6.03%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 23:55
Bally Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.91%EV -11.10%E -5.09%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.41%EV -0.798%E -0.285%K -0.443%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.68%EV -6.03%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 23:54
ATG (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.91%EV -11.10%E -5.09%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.41%EV -0.798%E -0.285%K -0.443%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.68%EV -6.03%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 23:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.91%EV -11.10%E -5.09%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.41%EV -0.798%E -0.285%K -0.443%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.68%EV -6.03%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 23:55
betPARX🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.91%EV -11.10%E -5.09%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.41%EV -0.798%E -0.285%K -0.443%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.68%EV -6.03%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 23:55
BetRivers🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.76%EV -11.51%E -5.30%K -9.83%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.74%EV -2.57%E -0.934%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.49%EV -6.03%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-08 23:55
betano_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.60%EV -12.32%E -5.73%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.30%EV -2.57%E -0.934%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.10%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-08 23:49
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.35%EV -12.32%E -5.73%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.56%EV -11.43%E -4.57%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.09%EV -8.41%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-08 23:50
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -12.32%E -5.73%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.34%EV -11.43%E -4.57%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.56%EV -10.79%E -2.88%K -3.92%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-08 23:55
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -12.32%E -5.73%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.34%EV -11.43%E -4.57%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.56%EV -10.79%E -2.88%K -3.92%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-08 23:54
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -12.32%E -5.73%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.34%EV -11.43%E -4.57%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.56%EV -10.79%E -2.88%K -3.92%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-08 23:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -12.32%E -5.73%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.34%EV -11.43%E -4.57%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.56%EV -10.79%E -2.88%K -3.92%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-08 23:55
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -14.36%E -6.84%K -13.06%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -0.798%E -0.285%K -0.443%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-08 23:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.40I 41.67%NM 43.71%3.35I 29.85%NM 31.31%4.20I 23.81%NM 24.98%-4.7%2026-08-08 23:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 40.87%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.58%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.55%1.1%2026-08-08 23:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 40.87%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.58%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.55%1.1%2026-08-08 23:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 40.87%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.58%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.55%1.1%2026-08-08 23:50