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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Inter Miami CF v Monterrey

Inicio: 2026-08-09 00:00 UTC

Final: Inter Miami CF 1–2 Monterrey

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

44 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Inter Miami CF (Local)

Predicción 40.78%2.45momio equitativo
EV -2.13%
Ventaja -0.886%
Kelly -1.52%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.52%40.96%40.84%43.43%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.102.232.192.4047.62%44.94%45.66%41.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Monterrey (Visitante)

Predicción 35.43%2.82momio equitativo
EV -0.798%
Ventaja -0.285%
Kelly -0.443%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.57%35.28%35.45%37.24%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.502.672.682.8040.00%37.45%37.31%35.71%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 23.79%4.20momio equitativo
EV -1.51%
Ventaja -0.365%
Kelly -0.481%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.14

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.02%23.76%23.71%24.76%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.703.903.954.1427.03%25.62%25.32%24.15%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Inter Miami CF (Local): 40.78%; Monterrey (Visitante): 35.43%; Empate: 23.79%. Para Monterrey (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.82. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 2.80, con un valor esperado de -0.798%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (44 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
LowVig.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.73%EV -2.13%E -0.886%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.24%EV -9.30%E -3.63%K -5.96%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 23.03%EV -1.51%E -0.365%K -0.481%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-08 23:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.73%EV -2.13%E -0.886%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.24%EV -9.30%E -3.63%K -5.96%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 23.03%EV -1.51%E -0.365%K -0.481%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-08 23:55
Pinnacle🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 40.28%EV -2.53%E -1.06%K -1.82%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 35.53%EV -3.99%E -1.47%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.19%EV -5.32%E -1.34%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-08 23:50
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.42%EV -4.17%E -1.77%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.11%E -2.31%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.74%EV -4.84%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 23:50
Dabble (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.52%EV -4.17%E -1.77%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.72%EV -7.88%E -3.03%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -10.79%E -2.88%K -3.92%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-08 23:49
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.21%EV -6.20%E -2.70%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -4.34%E -1.61%K -2.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.69%EV -4.84%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-08 23:50
Caesars🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -6.20%E -2.70%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.53%EV -6.11%E -2.31%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -4.84%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-08 23:54
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.69%EV -6.20%E -2.70%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.31%EV -6.11%E -2.31%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -7.22%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 23:45
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -6.20%E -2.70%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.75%EV -7.88%E -3.03%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -7.22%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-08 23:55
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -6.20%E -2.70%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.75%EV -7.88%E -3.03%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -7.22%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-08 23:54
NordicBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.06%EV -7.02%E -3.08%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.93%EV -5.05%E -1.88%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.01%EV -7.22%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 23:50
Betsson🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.06%EV -7.02%E -3.08%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.93%EV -5.05%E -1.88%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.01%EV -7.22%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 23:50
1xBet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.83%EV -7.43%E -3.27%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.66%EV -2.92%E -1.07%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.04I 24.75%NM 23.51%EV -3.89%E -0.963%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 23:54
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.96%EV -8.24%E -3.66%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.78%EV -6.11%E -2.31%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-08 23:40
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.41%EV -8.24%E -3.66%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.66%EV -9.65%E -3.79%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.93%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-08 23:50
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.13%EV -8.24%E -3.66%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -11.43%E -4.57%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.76%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-08 23:54
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.87%EV -8.24%E -3.66%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.88%EV -11.43%E -4.57%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.25%EV -11.98%E -3.24%K -4.44%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-08 23:48
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -10.28%E -4.67%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -0.798%E -0.285%K -0.443%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -4.84%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-08 23:54
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -10.28%E -4.67%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.65%EV -9.65%E -3.79%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.02%EV -6.03%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-08 23:49
Fliff🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.08%EV -10.28%E -4.67%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.44%EV -9.65%E -3.79%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.48%EV -8.41%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-08 23:55
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.67%EV -10.28%E -4.67%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.79%EV -11.43%E -4.57%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.54%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-08 23:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.67%EV -10.28%E -4.67%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.79%EV -11.43%E -4.57%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.54%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-08 23:50
PMU (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.91%EV -11.10%E -5.09%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.41%EV -0.798%E -0.285%K -0.443%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.68%EV -6.03%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 23:55
TABtouch🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.91%EV -11.10%E -5.09%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.41%EV -0.798%E -0.285%K -0.443%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.68%EV -6.03%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 23:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.91%EV -11.10%E -5.09%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.41%EV -0.798%E -0.285%K -0.443%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.68%EV -6.03%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 23:55
Casumo🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.91%EV -11.10%E -5.09%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.41%EV -0.798%E -0.285%K -0.443%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.68%EV -6.03%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 23:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.91%EV -11.10%E -5.09%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.41%EV -0.798%E -0.285%K -0.443%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.68%EV -6.03%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 23:55
Unibet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.91%EV -11.10%E -5.09%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.41%EV -0.798%E -0.285%K -0.443%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.68%EV -6.03%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 23:55
Grosvenor🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.91%EV -11.10%E -5.09%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.41%EV -0.798%E -0.285%K -0.443%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.68%EV -6.03%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 23:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.91%EV -11.10%E -5.09%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.41%EV -0.798%E -0.285%K -0.443%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.68%EV -6.03%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 23:54
Virgin Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.91%EV -11.10%E -5.09%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.41%EV -0.798%E -0.285%K -0.443%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.68%EV -6.03%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 23:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.91%EV -11.10%E -5.09%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.41%EV -0.798%E -0.285%K -0.443%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.68%EV -6.03%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 23:55
Bally Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.91%EV -11.10%E -5.09%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.41%EV -0.798%E -0.285%K -0.443%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.68%EV -6.03%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 23:54
ATG (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.91%EV -11.10%E -5.09%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.41%EV -0.798%E -0.285%K -0.443%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.68%EV -6.03%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 23:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.91%EV -11.10%E -5.09%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.41%EV -0.798%E -0.285%K -0.443%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.68%EV -6.03%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 23:55
betPARX🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.91%EV -11.10%E -5.09%K -9.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.41%EV -0.798%E -0.285%K -0.443%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.68%EV -6.03%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 23:55
BetRivers🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.76%EV -11.51%E -5.30%K -9.83%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.74%EV -2.57%E -0.934%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.49%EV -6.03%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-08 23:55
betano_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.60%EV -12.32%E -5.73%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.30%EV -2.57%E -0.934%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.10%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-08 23:49
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.35%EV -12.32%E -5.73%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.56%EV -11.43%E -4.57%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.09%EV -8.41%E -2.18%K -2.95%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-08 23:50
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -12.32%E -5.73%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.34%EV -11.43%E -4.57%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.56%EV -10.79%E -2.88%K -3.92%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-08 23:55
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -12.32%E -5.73%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.34%EV -11.43%E -4.57%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.56%EV -10.79%E -2.88%K -3.92%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-08 23:54
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -12.32%E -5.73%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.34%EV -11.43%E -4.57%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.56%EV -10.79%E -2.88%K -3.92%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-08 23:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -12.32%E -5.73%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.34%EV -11.43%E -4.57%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.56%EV -10.79%E -2.88%K -3.92%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-08 23:55
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -14.36%E -6.84%K -13.06%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -0.798%E -0.285%K -0.443%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-08 23:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets◎2.40I 41.67%NM 43.71%3.35I 29.85%NM 31.31%4.20I 23.81%NM 24.98%-4.7%2026-08-08 23:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 40.87%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.58%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.55%1.1%2026-08-08 23:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 40.87%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.58%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.55%1.1%2026-08-08 23:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 40.87%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.58%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.55%1.1%2026-08-08 23:50