Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Guadalajara v FC Dallas

2026-08-09 01:00 UTC — Leagues Cup

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Guadalajara (Local)

Prediction 41.75%2.40fair odd
EV -3.98%
Edge -1.73%
Kelly -3.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.37%41.60%41.73%42.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.212.202.3047.62%45.30%45.45%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Dallas (Visit)

Prediction 32.86%3.04fair odd
EV -4.71%
Edge -1.62%
Kelly -2.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.30%32.84%32.89%33.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.802.802.9037.04%35.71%35.71%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.40%3.94fair odd
EV -2.23%
Edge -0.578%
Kelly -0.781%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.63%25.56%25.38%27.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.533.603.8530.77%28.30%27.78%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Guadalajara (Local): 41.75%; FC Dallas (Visit): 32.86%; Draw: 25.40%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.94. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.85, with an expected value of -2.23%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.59%EV -3.98%E -1.73%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.56%EV -6.35%E -2.23%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.85%EV -2.23%E -0.578%K -0.781%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-06 11:50
1xBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.33%EV -4.82%E -2.11%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.49%EV -4.71%E -1.62%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -8.57%E -2.38%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-06 11:29
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.07%E -2.70%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.47%EV -5.37%E -1.86%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -8.57%E -2.38%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-06 11:30
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.07%E -2.70%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.47%EV -5.37%E -1.86%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -8.57%E -2.38%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-06 11:30
Dabble (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.11%EV -6.07%E -2.70%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.46%EV -6.35%E -2.23%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -11.11%E -3.18%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-06 12:50
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.54%EV -8.16%E -3.71%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -6.35%E -2.23%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -3.49%E -0.920%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-06 11:29
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.47%EV -8.16%E -3.71%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.18%EV -9.64%E -3.51%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -8.57%E -2.38%K -3.30%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-06 11:54
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.37%EV -8.16%E -3.71%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.30%EV -9.64%E -3.51%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.33%EV -17.46%E -5.37%K -7.76%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-06 12:05
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.37%EV -8.16%E -3.71%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.30%EV -9.64%E -3.51%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.33%EV -17.46%E -5.37%K -7.76%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-06 12:05
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.37%EV -8.16%E -3.71%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.30%EV -9.64%E -3.51%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.33%EV -17.46%E -5.37%K -7.76%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-06 12:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.37%EV -8.16%E -3.71%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.30%EV -9.64%E -3.51%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.33%EV -17.46%E -5.37%K -7.76%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-06 12:05
SportsBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.23%EV -8.99%E -4.13%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -8.00%E -2.86%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -6.03%E -1.63%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-06 11:30
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -10.25%E -4.77%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -8.00%E -2.86%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -6.03%E -1.63%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-06 11:38
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -10.25%E -4.77%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.75%EV -9.64%E -3.51%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.37%EV -9.84%E -2.77%K -3.86%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-06 11:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -12.33%E -5.87%K -11.21%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.71%EV -11.28%E -4.18%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.23%EV -11.11%E -3.18%K -4.45%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-06 11:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets2.16I 46.30%NM 41.45%2.78I 35.97%NM 32.21%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%11.7%2026-08-06 11:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.91I 52.36%NM 32.39%1.83I 54.64%NM 33.81%1.83I 54.64%NM 33.81%61.6%2026-08-06 12:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.91I 52.36%NM 32.39%1.83I 54.64%NM 33.81%1.83I 54.64%NM 33.81%61.6%2026-08-06 12:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 32.39%1.83I 54.64%NM 33.81%1.83I 54.64%NM 33.81%61.6%2026-08-06 12:45