The School of Odds
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FC Cincinnati v Pachuca

2026-08-04 23:45 UTC — Leagues Cup

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Cincinnati (Local)

Prediction 46.28%2.16fair odd
EV -5.12%
Edge -2.50%
Kelly -4.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.97%46.23%46.13%47.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.022.052.0551.28%49.47%48.78%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pachuca (Visit)

Prediction 29.61%3.38fair odd
EV -2.29%
Edge -0.695%
Kelly -0.997%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.94%29.61%29.50%30.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.103.103.3033.33%32.30%32.26%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.11%4.15fair odd
EV +1.25%
Edge +0.298%
Kelly +0.391%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.72%24.16%24.37%25.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.803.854.2029.41%26.30%25.97%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: FC Cincinnati (Local): 46.28%; Pachuca (Visit): 29.61%; Draw: 24.11%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.15. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.20, producing a positive expected value of +1.25%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Coolbet2.03I 49.26%NM 47.00%EV -6.04%E -2.98%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.29%EV -6.73%E -2.14%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.72%EV +1.25%E +0.298%K +0.391%G +0.005%4.8%2026-08-02 16:59
SportsBet1.96I 51.02%NM 47.12%EV -9.28%E -4.74%K -9.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.79%EV -8.21%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.09%EV -3.57%E -0.893%K -1.19%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-02 16:59
FanDuel1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -9.75%E -5.00%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -8.21%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -3.57%E -0.893%K -1.19%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 17:00
theScore Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 46.58%EV -5.12%E -2.50%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.94%EV -2.29%E -0.695%K -0.997%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.48%EV -5.98%E -1.53%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-02 16:34
Unibet (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.58%EV -5.12%E -2.50%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -8.21%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.27%EV -7.19%E -1.87%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-02 18:34
LeoVegas (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.58%EV -5.12%E -2.50%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -8.21%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.27%EV -7.19%E -1.87%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-02 18:35
Bally Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.58%EV -5.12%E -2.50%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -8.21%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.27%EV -7.19%E -1.87%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-02 18:33
Grosvenor2.05I 48.78%NM 45.58%EV -5.12%E -2.50%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -8.21%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.27%EV -7.19%E -1.87%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-02 20:10
LiveScore Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.58%EV -5.12%E -2.50%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -8.21%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.27%EV -7.19%E -1.87%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-02 20:10
Casumo2.05I 48.78%NM 45.58%EV -5.12%E -2.50%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -8.21%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.27%EV -7.19%E -1.87%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-02 20:09
betPARX2.05I 48.78%NM 45.58%EV -5.12%E -2.50%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -8.21%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.27%EV -7.19%E -1.87%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-02 20:10
Svenska Spel2.05I 48.78%NM 45.58%EV -5.12%E -2.50%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -8.21%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.27%EV -7.19%E -1.87%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-02 20:09
PMU (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.58%EV -5.12%E -2.50%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -8.21%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.27%EV -7.19%E -1.87%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-02 20:15
Unibet (NL)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.58%EV -5.12%E -2.50%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -8.21%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.27%EV -7.19%E -1.87%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-02 20:15
Virgin Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.58%EV -5.12%E -2.50%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -8.21%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.27%EV -7.19%E -1.87%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-02 20:14
Unibet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.58%EV -5.12%E -2.50%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -8.21%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.27%EV -7.19%E -1.87%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-02 20:14
TABtouch2.05I 48.78%NM 45.58%EV -5.12%E -2.50%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -8.21%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.27%EV -7.19%E -1.87%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-02 20:15
ATG (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.58%EV -5.12%E -2.50%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -8.21%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.27%EV -7.19%E -1.87%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-02 20:14
Dabble (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.13%EV -5.12%E -2.50%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -11.18%E -3.73%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.03%EV -7.19%E -1.87%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-02 18:09
1xBet2.03I 49.26%NM 45.87%EV -6.04%E -2.98%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 29.75%EV -7.33%E -2.34%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.38%EV -7.91%E -2.07%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-02 19:10
NordicBet2.02I 49.50%NM 46.02%EV -6.51%E -3.22%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.51%EV -6.73%E -2.14%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -8.39%E -2.21%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-02 16:34
Betsson2.02I 49.50%NM 46.02%EV -6.51%E -3.22%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.51%EV -6.73%E -2.14%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -8.39%E -2.21%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-02 16:34
BetRivers2.04I 49.02%NM 45.56%EV -5.58%E -2.74%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -8.21%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -8.39%E -2.21%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-02 20:09
Fliff1.95I 51.28%NM 46.68%EV -9.75%E -5.00%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -8.21%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -8.39%E -2.21%K -3.00%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-02 20:10
888sport (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 44.97%EV -9.75%E -5.00%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.23%EV -11.18%E -3.73%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.79%EV -18.04%E -5.30%K -7.51%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-02 16:34
Mr Green (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 44.97%EV -9.75%E -5.00%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.23%EV -11.18%E -3.73%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.79%EV -18.04%E -5.30%K -7.51%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-02 17:29
William Hill1.95I 51.28%NM 44.97%EV -9.75%E -5.00%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.23%EV -11.18%E -3.73%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.79%EV -18.04%E -5.30%K -7.51%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-02 17:35
888sport1.95I 51.28%NM 44.97%EV -9.75%E -5.00%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.23%EV -11.18%E -3.73%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.79%EV -18.04%E -5.30%K -7.51%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-02 18:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.97I 50.76%NM 45.53%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.57%11.5%2026-08-02 16:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.27I 78.74%NM 43.08%1.27I 78.74%NM 43.08%3.95I 25.32%NM 13.85%82.8%2026-08-02 19:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.27I 78.74%NM 43.08%1.27I 78.74%NM 43.08%3.95I 25.32%NM 13.85%82.8%2026-08-02 20:10