Language:English
Chicago Fire v Necaxa
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Chicago Fire (Local)
Prediction 60.82%1.64fair odd
EV -3.91%
Edge -2.47%
Kelly -6.74%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.58
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.59%60.77%60.81%62.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.531.531.5869.93%65.53%65.36%63.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Necaxa (Visit)
Prediction 17.99%5.56fair odd
EV +4.91%
Edge +0.842%
Kelly +1.02%
Growth +0.050%
assuming max odds 5.83
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.45%18.02%18.12%19.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.405.155.205.8322.73%19.42%19.23%17.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 21.19%4.72fair odd
EV +5.93%
Edge +1.19%
Kelly +1.48%
Growth +0.088%
assuming max odds 5.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.98%21.21%21.07%22.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.054.394.455.0024.69%22.76%22.47%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chicago Fire (Local): 60.82%; Necaxa (Visit): 17.99%; Draw: 21.19%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.72. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.93%.
Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.95%E -4.54%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.98%EV -10.03%E -2.01%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.98%EV +5.93%E +1.19%K +1.48%G +0.088% | 5.4% | 2026-08-07 00:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.49%EV -6.95%E -4.54%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.38%EV -1.03%E -0.187%K -0.228%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.13%EV +0.637%E +0.134%K +0.170%G +0.001% | 4.6% | 2026-08-07 00:06 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.42%EV -5.12%E -3.28%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.74%EV -2.83%E -0.524%K -0.643%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%EV -2.54%E -0.552%K -0.706%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-07 00:36 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.11%EV -5.12%E -3.28%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.16%EV -5.53%E -1.05%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.73%EV -2.54%E -0.552%K -0.706%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-07 00:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.29%EV -5.12%E -3.28%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -10.03%E -2.01%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -4.66%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-07 00:26 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.30%EV -6.95%E -4.54%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.86%EV -5.53%E -1.05%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.84%EV -4.66%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-07 00:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.19%EV -6.95%E -4.54%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.00%EV -6.43%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -4.66%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-07 00:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.19%EV -6.95%E -4.54%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.00%EV -6.43%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -4.66%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-07 00:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.19%EV -6.95%E -4.54%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.00%EV -6.43%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -4.66%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-07 00:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.19%EV -6.95%E -4.54%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.00%EV -6.43%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -4.66%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-07 00:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.19%EV -6.95%E -4.54%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.00%EV -6.43%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -4.66%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-07 00:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.19%EV -6.95%E -4.54%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.00%EV -6.43%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -4.66%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-07 00:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.19%EV -6.95%E -4.54%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.00%EV -6.43%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -4.66%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-07 00:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.19%EV -6.95%E -4.54%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.00%EV -6.43%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -4.66%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-07 00:35 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.19%EV -6.95%E -4.54%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.00%EV -6.43%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -4.66%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-07 00:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.19%EV -6.95%E -4.54%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.00%EV -6.43%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -4.66%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-07 00:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.19%EV -6.95%E -4.54%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.00%EV -6.43%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -4.66%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-07 00:35 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.19%EV -6.95%E -4.54%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.00%EV -6.43%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -4.66%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-07 00:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.50%EV -8.16%E -5.41%K -16.01%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.86%EV -6.43%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.64%EV -4.66%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-07 00:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.50%EV -8.16%E -5.41%K -16.01%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.86%EV -6.43%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.64%EV -4.66%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-07 00:34 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.63%EV -5.73%E -3.70%K -10.42%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.25%EV -7.33%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.12%EV -5.72%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-07 00:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.63%EV -5.73%E -3.70%K -10.42%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.25%EV -7.33%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.12%EV -5.72%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-07 00:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.42%EV -8.16%E -5.41%K -16.01%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.50%EV -4.63%E -0.873%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.08%EV -6.78%E -1.54%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-07 00:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.94%EV -8.77%E -5.85%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -10.03%E -2.01%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.78%EV -6.78%E -1.54%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-07 00:25 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.94%EV -8.77%E -5.85%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -10.03%E -2.01%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.78%EV -6.78%E -1.54%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-07 00:24 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.51%EV -6.34%E -4.12%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV +0.772%E +0.138%K +0.168%G +0.001% | 4.39I 22.78%NM 21.58%EV -6.99%E -1.59%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-07 00:26 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.17%EV -5.12%E -3.28%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 5.72I 17.48%NM 16.68%EV +2.93%E +0.512%K +0.621%G +0.018% | 4.31I 23.20%NM 22.14%EV -8.69%E -2.02%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-07 00:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.17%EV -5.12%E -3.28%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 5.72I 17.48%NM 16.68%EV +2.93%E +0.512%K +0.621%G +0.018% | 4.31I 23.20%NM 22.14%EV -8.69%E -2.02%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-07 00:06 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.40%EV -5.73%E -3.70%K -10.42%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.83%EV -5.53%E -1.05%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.77%EV -8.90%E -2.07%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-07 00:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 60.71%EV -8.16%E -5.41%K -16.01%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.97%EV -8.23%E -1.61%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.32%EV -8.90%E -2.07%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-07 00:26 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.24%EV -5.73%E -3.70%K -10.42%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -5.53%E -1.05%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.97%EV -9.96%E -2.34%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-07 00:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.71%EV -3.91%E -2.47%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 5.83I 17.15%NM 16.45%EV +4.91%E +0.842%K +1.02%G +0.050% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.84%EV -11.02%E -2.62%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-07 00:26 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.42%EV -5.12%E -3.28%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.14%EV -1.03%E -0.187%K -0.228%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%EV -11.02%E -2.62%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-06 22:27 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -8.77%E -5.85%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -1.03%E -0.187%K -0.228%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -11.02%E -2.62%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-07 00:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -8.77%E -5.85%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -10.03%E -2.01%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -11.02%E -2.62%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-07 00:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.34%EV -7.56%E -4.97%K -14.53%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.19%EV -15.42%E -3.28%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.47%EV -11.02%E -2.62%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-07 00:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.41%EV -8.77%E -5.85%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -17.22%E -3.74%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -11.02%E -2.62%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-07 00:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.41%EV -8.77%E -5.85%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -17.22%E -3.74%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -11.02%E -2.62%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-07 00:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.41%EV -8.77%E -5.85%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -17.22%E -3.74%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -11.02%E -2.62%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-07 00:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.41%EV -8.77%E -5.85%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -17.22%E -3.74%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -11.02%E -2.62%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-07 00:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.47%EV -8.77%E -5.85%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.78%EV -14.52%E -3.06%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.76%EV -13.13%E -3.20%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-07 00:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.59%EV -8.77%E -5.85%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 19.97%EV -20.82%E -4.73%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.44%EV -13.13%E -3.20%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-08-07 00:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 60.68%EV -13.03%E -9.11%K -30.30%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 17.89%EV -12.72%E -2.62%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 21.43%EV -14.19%E -3.50%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 15.2% | 2026-08-07 00:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 62.38% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.32% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.29% | 2.1% | 2026-08-07 00:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.53% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.26% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.21% | 2.5% | 2026-08-07 00:36 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.53% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.26% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.21% | 2.5% | 2026-08-07 00:36 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 60.18% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 16.87% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 22.95% | 16.2% | 2026-08-07 00:36 |
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