Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Chicago Fire v Necaxa

Início: 2026-08-07 00:40 UTC

Final: Chicago Fire 2–0 Necaxa

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

43 casas de apostas (15 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Chicago Fire (Local)

Previsão 60.82%1.64odd justa
EV -3.91%
Vantagem -2.47%
Kelly -6.74%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.58

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
58.59%60.77%60.81%62.49%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.431.531.531.5869.93%65.53%65.36%63.29%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Necaxa (Visitante)

Previsão 17.99%5.56odd justa
EV +4.91%
Vantagem +0.842%
Kelly +1.02%
Crescimento +0.050%

pressupondo odds máximas de 5.83

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
16.45%18.02%18.12%19.97%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.405.155.205.8322.73%19.42%19.23%17.15%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 21.19%4.72odd justa
EV +5.93%
Vantagem +1.19%
Kelly +1.48%
Crescimento +0.088%

pressupondo odds máximas de 5.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
18.98%21.21%21.07%22.84%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.054.394.455.0024.69%22.76%22.47%20.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Chicago Fire (Local): 60.82%; Necaxa (Visitante): 17.99%; Empate: 21.19%. Para Empate, essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 4.72. 2 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 5.00, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +5.93%.

Odds das casas de apostas (43 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargemAtualização
DraftKings🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.95%E -4.54%K -13.11%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.98%EV -10.03%E -2.01%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.98%EV +5.93%E +1.19%K +1.48%G +0.088%5.4%2026-08-07 00:30
Coolbet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.49%EV -6.95%E -4.54%K -13.11%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.38%EV -1.03%E -0.187%K -0.228%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.13%EV +0.637%E +0.134%K +0.170%G +0.001%4.6%2026-08-07 00:06
Unibet (NL)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.42%EV -5.12%E -3.28%K -9.15%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.74%EV -2.83%E -0.524%K -0.643%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%EV -2.54%E -0.552%K -0.706%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-07 00:36
theScore Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.11%EV -5.12%E -3.28%K -9.15%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.16%EV -5.53%E -1.05%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.73%EV -2.54%E -0.552%K -0.706%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-07 00:05
Fanatics🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.29%EV -5.12%E -3.28%K -9.15%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -10.03%E -2.01%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -4.66%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-07 00:26
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.30%EV -6.95%E -4.54%K -13.11%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.86%EV -5.53%E -1.05%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.84%EV -4.66%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-07 00:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.19%EV -6.95%E -4.54%K -13.11%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.00%EV -6.43%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -4.66%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-07 00:35
Unibet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.19%EV -6.95%E -4.54%K -13.11%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.00%EV -6.43%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -4.66%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-07 00:35
TABtouch🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.19%EV -6.95%E -4.54%K -13.11%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.00%EV -6.43%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -4.66%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-07 00:35
Casumo🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.19%EV -6.95%E -4.54%K -13.11%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.00%EV -6.43%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -4.66%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-07 00:35
Grosvenor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.19%EV -6.95%E -4.54%K -13.11%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.00%EV -6.43%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -4.66%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-07 00:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.19%EV -6.95%E -4.54%K -13.11%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.00%EV -6.43%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -4.66%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-07 00:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.19%EV -6.95%E -4.54%K -13.11%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.00%EV -6.43%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -4.66%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-07 00:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.19%EV -6.95%E -4.54%K -13.11%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.00%EV -6.43%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -4.66%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-07 00:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.19%EV -6.95%E -4.54%K -13.11%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.00%EV -6.43%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -4.66%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-07 00:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.19%EV -6.95%E -4.54%K -13.11%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.00%EV -6.43%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -4.66%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-07 00:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.19%EV -6.95%E -4.54%K -13.11%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.00%EV -6.43%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -4.66%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-07 00:35
Bally Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.19%EV -6.95%E -4.54%K -13.11%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.00%EV -6.43%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -4.66%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-07 00:35
BetRivers🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.50%EV -8.16%E -5.41%K -16.01%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.86%EV -6.43%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.64%EV -4.66%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-07 00:35
betPARX🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.50%EV -8.16%E -5.41%K -16.01%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.86%EV -6.43%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.64%EV -4.66%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-07 00:34
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.63%EV -5.73%E -3.70%K -10.42%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.25%EV -7.33%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.12%EV -5.72%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-07 00:05
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.63%EV -5.73%E -3.70%K -10.42%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.25%EV -7.33%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.12%EV -5.72%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-07 00:05
FanDuel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.42%EV -8.16%E -5.41%K -16.01%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.50%EV -4.63%E -0.873%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.08%EV -6.78%E -1.54%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-07 00:30
Bet Victor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.94%EV -8.77%E -5.85%K -17.54%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -10.03%E -2.01%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.78%EV -6.78%E -1.54%K -1.99%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-07 00:25
betano_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.94%EV -8.77%E -5.85%K -17.54%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -10.03%E -2.01%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.78%EV -6.78%E -1.54%K -1.99%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-07 00:24
1xBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.51%EV -6.34%E -4.12%K -11.74%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV +0.772%E +0.138%K +0.168%G +0.001%4.39I 22.78%NM 21.58%EV -6.99%E -1.59%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-07 00:26
LowVig.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.17%EV -5.12%E -3.28%K -9.15%G +0.000%5.72I 17.48%NM 16.68%EV +2.93%E +0.512%K +0.621%G +0.018%4.31I 23.20%NM 22.14%EV -8.69%E -2.02%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-07 00:04
BetOnline.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.17%EV -5.12%E -3.28%K -9.15%G +0.000%5.72I 17.48%NM 16.68%EV +2.93%E +0.512%K +0.621%G +0.018%4.31I 23.20%NM 22.14%EV -8.69%E -2.02%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-07 00:06
Bovada🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.40%EV -5.73%E -3.70%K -10.42%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.83%EV -5.53%E -1.05%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.77%EV -8.90%E -2.07%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-07 00:30
SportsBet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.71%EV -8.16%E -5.41%K -16.01%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.97%EV -8.23%E -1.61%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.32%EV -8.90%E -2.07%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-07 00:26
Dabble (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.24%EV -5.73%E -3.70%K -10.42%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -5.53%E -1.05%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.97%EV -9.96%E -2.34%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-07 00:25
Pinnacle🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.71%EV -3.91%E -2.47%K -6.74%G +0.000%5.83I 17.15%NM 16.45%EV +4.91%E +0.842%K +1.02%G +0.050%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.84%EV -11.02%E -2.62%K -3.44%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-07 00:26
Caesars🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.42%EV -5.12%E -3.28%K -9.15%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.14%EV -1.03%E -0.187%K -0.228%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%EV -11.02%E -2.62%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-06 22:27
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -8.77%E -5.85%K -17.54%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -1.03%E -0.187%K -0.228%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -11.02%E -2.62%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-07 00:35
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -8.77%E -5.85%K -17.54%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -10.03%E -2.01%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -11.02%E -2.62%K -3.44%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-07 00:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.34%EV -7.56%E -4.97%K -14.53%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.19%EV -15.42%E -3.28%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.47%EV -11.02%E -2.62%K -3.44%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-07 00:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.41%EV -8.77%E -5.85%K -17.54%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -17.22%E -3.74%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -11.02%E -2.62%K -3.44%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-07 00:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.41%EV -8.77%E -5.85%K -17.54%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -17.22%E -3.74%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -11.02%E -2.62%K -3.44%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-07 00:20
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.41%EV -8.77%E -5.85%K -17.54%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -17.22%E -3.74%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -11.02%E -2.62%K -3.44%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-07 00:20
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.41%EV -8.77%E -5.85%K -17.54%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -17.22%E -3.74%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -11.02%E -2.62%K -3.44%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-07 00:20
BetMGM🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.47%EV -8.77%E -5.85%K -17.54%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.78%EV -14.52%E -3.06%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.76%EV -13.13%E -3.20%K -4.24%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-07 00:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.59%EV -8.77%E -5.85%K -17.54%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.97%EV -20.82%E -4.73%K -6.12%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.44%EV -13.13%E -3.20%K -4.24%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-07 00:30
Fliff🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 60.68%EV -13.03%E -9.11%K -30.30%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 17.89%EV -12.72%E -2.62%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.43%EV -14.19%E -3.50%K -4.65%G +0.000%15.2%2026-08-07 00:35
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (4)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.57I 63.69%NM 62.38%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.32%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.29%2.1%2026-08-07 00:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.56I 64.10%NM 62.53%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.26%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.21%2.5%2026-08-07 00:36
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.56I 64.10%NM 62.53%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.26%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.21%2.5%2026-08-07 00:36
Smarkets1.43I 69.93%NM 60.18%5.10I 19.61%NM 16.87%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.95%16.2%2026-08-07 00:36