Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Yunnan Yukun v Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC

Kickoff: 2026-04-17 12:00 UTC

Final: Yunnan Yukun 0–3 Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

46 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Yunnan Yukun (Local)

Prediction 63.87%1.57fair odd
EV +2.19%
Edge +1.37%
Kelly +3.65%
Growth +0.080%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.41%63.49%63.93%65.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.391.481.451.6071.94%67.64%68.97%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC (Visit)

Prediction 15.44%6.48fair odd
EV +0.359%
Edge +0.055%
Kelly +0.065%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.17%15.70%15.39%19.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.705.645.956.5021.28%17.72%16.81%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.69%4.83fair odd
EV -2.75%
Edge -0.584%
Kelly -0.742%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.36%20.81%20.68%23.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.304.334.7026.67%23.25%23.09%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Yunnan Yukun (Local): 63.87%; Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC (Visit): 15.44%; Draw: 20.69%. For Yunnan Yukun (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.57. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.19%.

Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.52%EV +2.19%E +1.37%K +3.65%G +0.080%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -25.89%E -5.39%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -18.27%E -4.62%K -6.19%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-17 07:54
BetRivers🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.52%EV +2.19%E +1.37%K +3.65%G +0.080%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -25.89%E -5.39%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -18.27%E -4.62%K -6.19%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-17 07:55
LeoVegas🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.52%EV +2.19%E +1.37%K +3.65%G +0.080%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -25.89%E -5.39%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -18.27%E -4.62%K -6.19%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-17 07:54
Unibet (NL)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.52%EV +2.19%E +1.37%K +3.65%G +0.080%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -25.89%E -5.39%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -18.27%E -4.62%K -6.19%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-17 07:54
TABtouch🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.52%EV +2.19%E +1.37%K +3.65%G +0.080%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -25.89%E -5.39%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -18.27%E -4.62%K -6.19%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-17 07:54
Grosvenor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.52%EV +2.19%E +1.37%K +3.65%G +0.080%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -25.89%E -5.39%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -18.27%E -4.62%K -6.19%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-17 07:54
Unibet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.52%EV +2.19%E +1.37%K +3.65%G +0.080%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -25.89%E -5.39%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -18.27%E -4.62%K -6.19%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-17 07:54
betPARX🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.52%EV +2.19%E +1.37%K +3.65%G +0.080%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -25.89%E -5.39%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -18.27%E -4.62%K -6.19%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-17 07:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.41%EV +2.19%E +1.37%K +3.65%G +0.080%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.34%EV -26.66%E -5.61%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.25%EV -18.27%E -4.62%K -6.19%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-17 07:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.74%EV -0.366%E -0.235%K -0.654%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.16%EV -27.43%E -5.84%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -19.30%E -4.95%K -6.66%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-17 07:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.74%EV -0.366%E -0.235%K -0.654%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.16%EV -27.43%E -5.84%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -19.30%E -4.95%K -6.66%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-17 07:55
GTbets🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.54%EV -2.92%E -1.92%K -5.62%G +0.000%6.32I 15.82%NM 15.28%EV -2.42%E -0.383%K -0.455%G +0.000%4.56I 21.93%NM 21.18%EV -5.64%E -1.24%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-17 11:14
Pinnacle🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.58%EV -5.48%E -3.70%K -11.41%G +0.000%6.45I 15.50%NM 14.82%EV -0.413%E -0.064%K -0.076%G +0.000%4.64I 21.55%NM 20.60%EV -3.99%E -0.859%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-17 11:54
DraftKings🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.76%EV -5.48%E -3.70%K -11.41%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.36%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -4.82%E -1.05%K -1.34%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-17 11:54
LowVig.ag🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.47%EV -5.48%E -3.70%K -11.41%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -7.36%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -6.88%E -1.53%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-17 11:54
BetOnline.ag🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.47%EV -5.48%E -3.70%K -11.41%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -7.36%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -6.88%E -1.53%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-17 11:54
Betway🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.08%EV -5.48%E -3.70%K -11.41%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -15.08%E -2.74%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -10.40%E -2.40%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-17 11:54
Coolbet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.03%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.06%EV -3.50%E -0.560%K -0.667%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.92%EV -6.88%E -1.53%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-17 11:54
Bovada🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.63%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV -7.36%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -6.88%E -1.53%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-17 11:53
BetUS🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.63%EV -6.11%E -4.16%K -13.01%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV -7.36%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -6.88%E -1.53%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-17 11:54
1xBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.90%EV -6.75%E -4.63%K -14.68%G +0.000%5.82I 17.18%NM 16.03%EV -10.14%E -1.74%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.06%EV -3.78%E -0.813%K -1.04%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-17 11:54
Marathon Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.49%EV -6.75%E -4.63%K -14.68%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.20%EV -5.82%E -0.954%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.31%EV -9.99%E -2.30%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-17 11:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.34%EV -7.39%E -5.10%K -16.43%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.93%EV -3.50%E -0.560%K -0.667%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -6.88%E -1.53%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-17 11:54
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.60%EV -7.39%E -5.10%K -16.43%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.79%EV -11.22%E -1.95%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.61%EV -13.09%E -3.12%K -4.09%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-17 11:54
NordicBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -8.03%E -5.58%K -18.25%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.71%EV -8.91%E -1.51%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.93%EV -3.78%E -0.813%K -1.04%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-17 11:54
Betsson🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -8.03%E -5.58%K -18.25%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.71%EV -8.91%E -1.51%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.93%EV -3.78%E -0.813%K -1.04%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-17 11:54
SportsBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -8.03%E -5.58%K -18.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -7.36%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -6.88%E -1.53%K -1.97%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-17 11:54
Bet Victor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -8.03%E -5.58%K -18.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -7.36%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -6.88%E -1.53%K -1.97%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-17 11:54
Bet Right🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.81%EV -8.03%E -5.58%K -18.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -7.36%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -8.95%E -2.03%K -2.63%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-17 11:54
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.59%EV -8.03%E -5.58%K -18.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV -7.36%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.15%EV -10.40%E -2.40%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-17 11:53
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -8.03%E -5.58%K -18.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -7.36%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -13.09%E -3.12%K -4.09%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-17 10:59
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -8.03%E -5.58%K -18.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -7.36%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -13.09%E -3.12%K -4.09%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-17 11:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -8.03%E -5.58%K -18.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -7.36%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -13.09%E -3.12%K -4.09%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-17 10:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -8.03%E -5.58%K -18.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -7.36%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -13.09%E -3.12%K -4.09%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-17 10:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -8.03%E -5.58%K -18.25%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.42%EV -15.08%E -2.74%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -10.40%E -2.40%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-17 11:10
Neds🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -8.03%E -5.58%K -18.25%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.42%EV -15.08%E -2.74%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -10.40%E -2.40%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-17 11:09
FanDuel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.55%EV -8.67%E -6.06%K -20.16%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -7.36%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -4.82%E -1.05%K -1.34%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-17 11:54
Codere (IT)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.42%EV -9.31%E -6.55%K -22.16%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.25%EV -7.36%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.33%EV -6.88%E -1.53%K -1.97%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-17 11:54
Winamax (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.09%EV -9.31%E -6.55%K -22.16%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -15.08%E -2.74%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.36%EV -2.75%E -0.584%K -0.742%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-17 11:54
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -10.58%E -7.56%K -26.46%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV +0.359%E +0.055%K +0.065%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -4.82%E -1.05%K -1.34%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-17 11:30
Everygame🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.63%EV -10.58%E -7.56%K -26.46%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.48%EV -3.50%E -0.560%K -0.667%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.90%EV -10.40%E -2.40%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-17 11:29
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.45%EV -10.58%E -7.56%K -26.46%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.04%EV -7.36%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -8.95%E -2.03%K -2.63%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-17 11:00
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 62.98%EV -10.58%E -7.56%K -26.46%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.03%EV -15.08%E -2.74%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.99%EV -13.09%E -3.12%K -4.09%G +0.000%13.4%2026-04-17 11:54
Unibet (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 62.60%EV -10.58%E -7.56%K -26.46%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.54%EV -18.17%E -3.43%K -4.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.87%EV -13.09%E -3.12%K -4.09%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-17 11:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 61.43%EV -10.58%E -7.56%K -26.46%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.64%EV -15.08%E -2.74%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.93%EV -22.40%E -5.97%K -8.15%G +0.000%16.3%2026-04-17 11:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 63.16%EV -11.22%E -8.07%K -28.78%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.88%EV -19.71%E -3.79%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.95%EV -8.95%E -2.03%K -2.63%G +0.000%13.9%2026-04-17 11:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook1.52I 65.79%NM 65.47%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.22%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.31%0.5%2026-04-17 11:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.52I 65.79%NM 65.20%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.23%0.9%2026-04-17 11:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.52I 65.79%NM 65.20%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.23%0.9%2026-04-17 11:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.51I 66.23%NM 65.35%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.51%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.14%1.3%2026-04-17 11:55
Kalshi1.49I 67.11%NM 65.72%7.14I 14.01%NM 13.71%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.57%2.1%2026-04-17 11:54