The School of Odds

Wuhan Three Towns v Shenzhen Peng City FC

2026-07-18 12:00 UTC — Super League - China

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Wuhan Three Towns (Local)

Prediction 44.77%2.23fair odd
EV -4.64%
Edge -2.18%
Kelly -4.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.91%44.79%44.77%45.45%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.902.052.052.1353%49%49%47%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Shenzhen Peng City FC (Visit)

Prediction 28.53%3.51fair odd
EV -3.57%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -1.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.01%28.52%28.41%29.75%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.903.203.253.3834%31%31%30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 26.70%3.75fair odd
EV -3.88%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -1.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.77%26.69%26.82%27.59%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.203.443.453.6031%29%29%28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.13I 46.95%NM 44.81%EV -4.64%E -2.18%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.24%EV -3.57%E -1.06%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.96%EV -5.48%E -1.55%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-11 13:14
Pinnacle2.11I 47.39%NM 44.85%EV -5.54%E -2.62%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.34%EV -4.71%E -1.41%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.81%EV -5.74%E -1.63%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-11 13:25
Coolbet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -5.98%E -2.85%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -7.28%E -2.24%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -3.88%E -1.08%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-11 13:14
Bet Right2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -5.98%E -2.85%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -11.56%E -3.73%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.55%E -1.87%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-11 13:14
betfred_uk2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -5.98%E -2.85%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -11.56%E -3.73%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.55%E -1.87%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-11 13:13
SportsBet2.08I 48.08%NM 45.09%EV -6.88%E -3.31%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.86%EV -7.28%E -2.24%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -3.88%E -1.08%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-11 13:14
Betsson2.08I 48.08%NM 44.59%EV -6.88%E -3.31%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.53%EV -7.28%E -2.24%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.88%EV -7.88%E -2.28%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-11 12:20
NordicBet2.08I 48.08%NM 44.59%EV -6.88%E -3.31%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.53%EV -7.28%E -2.24%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.88%EV -7.88%E -2.28%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-11 12:19
Marathon Bet2.07I 48.31%NM 44.79%EV -7.33%E -3.54%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.26%EV -6.42%E -1.96%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 26.95%EV -8.15%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-11 13:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -8.22%E -4.01%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -7.28%E -2.24%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -3.88%E -1.08%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-11 13:25
FanDuel2.05I 48.78%NM 45.25%EV -8.22%E -4.01%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -8.71%E -2.72%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -3.88%E -1.08%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-11 13:13
888sport2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -8.22%E -4.01%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -7.28%E -2.24%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -11.89%E -3.60%K -5.17%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-11 13:09
Mr Green (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -8.22%E -4.01%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -7.28%E -2.24%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -11.89%E -3.60%K -5.17%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-11 13:09
888sport (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -8.22%E -4.01%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -7.28%E -2.24%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -11.89%E -3.60%K -5.17%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-11 13:09
William Hill2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -8.22%E -4.01%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -7.28%E -2.24%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -11.89%E -3.60%K -5.17%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-11 13:14
LeoVegas2.02I 49.50%NM 44.73%EV -9.57%E -4.74%K -9.38%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.69%EV -10.13%E -3.22%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -9.22%E -2.71%K -3.84%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-11 13:34
Paddy Power2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -10.46%E -5.23%K -10.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -11.56%E -3.73%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -6.55%E -1.87%K -2.62%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-11 13:14
Winamax (DE)1.96I 51.02%NM 44.50%EV -12.25%E -6.25%K -12.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.07%EV -14.41%E -4.80%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.43%EV -11.89%E -3.60%K -5.17%G +0.000%14.7%2026-07-11 12:35
Unibet (FR)1.95I 51.28%NM 45.05%EV -12.70%E -6.51%K -13.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.34%EV -11.56%E -3.73%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -11.89%E -3.60%K -5.17%G +0.000%13.8%2026-07-11 12:14
Winamax (FR)1.90I 52.63%NM 44.47%EV -14.94%E -7.86%K -16.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.13%EV -17.27%E -5.95%K -9.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.40%EV -14.56%E -4.55%K -6.62%G +0.000%18.4%2026-07-11 12:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 40.86%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.40%2.62I 38.17%NM 32.75%16.6%2026-07-11 14:04
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.10I 47.62%NM 40.86%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.40%2.62I 38.17%NM 32.75%16.6%2026-07-11 14:09
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 38.60%2.66I 37.59%NM 30.47%2.62I 38.17%NM 30.94%23.4%2026-07-11 14:55