Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC v Zhejiang

Kickoff: 2026-09-06 12:00 UTC

Final: Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC 2–1 Zhejiang

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

47 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC (Local)

Prediction 36.42%2.75fair odd
EV -0.564%
Edge -0.207%
Kelly -0.326%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.62%36.38%36.43%38.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.502.502.7343.48%39.99%40.00%36.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Zhejiang (Visit)

Prediction 36.68%2.73fair odd
EV -0.218%
Edge -0.080%
Kelly -0.127%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.93%36.70%36.64%38.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.512.502.7243.48%39.88%40.00%36.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.89%3.72fair odd
EV -0.500%
Edge -0.135%
Kelly -0.185%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.06%26.92%26.93%28.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.453.453.7031.25%28.96%28.99%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC (Local): 36.42%; Zhejiang (Visit): 36.68%; Draw: 26.89%. For Zhejiang (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.73. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.72, with an expected value of -0.218%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 35.29%EV -0.564%E -0.207%K -0.326%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.78%EV -3.89%E -1.48%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.93%EV -7.22%E -2.09%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-06 11:45
GTbets🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 35.32%EV -2.75%E -1.03%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.73%EV -8.29%E -3.32%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.95%EV -5.88%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-06 09:19
Tipico (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.62%EV -3.48%E -1.31%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -8.29%E -3.32%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -13.95%E -4.36%K -6.34%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-06 10:40
Betway🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -4.57%E -1.74%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.18%EV -8.29%E -3.32%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -8.57%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-06 11:40
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.32%EV -5.30%E -2.04%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.32%EV -4.62%E -1.78%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -7.22%E -2.09%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-06 11:54
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -5.30%E -2.04%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -8.29%E -3.32%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -3.19%E -0.886%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-06 08:24
Bovada🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -5.30%E -2.04%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -8.29%E -3.32%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -5.88%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 11:35
LowVig.ag🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 37.12%EV -6.76%E -2.64%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.93%EV -0.218%E -0.080%K -0.127%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.95%EV -8.57%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-06 11:54
BetOnline.ag🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 37.12%EV -6.76%E -2.64%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.93%EV -0.218%E -0.080%K -0.127%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.95%EV -8.57%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-06 11:54
FanDuel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -7.12%E -2.79%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -8.29%E -3.32%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -0.500%E -0.135%K -0.185%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-06 08:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -7.12%E -2.79%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -6.45%E -2.53%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.88%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 11:50
BetUS🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.52%EV -7.12%E -2.79%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.25%EV -8.29%E -3.32%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.23%EV -4.53%E -1.28%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-06 11:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -7.12%E -2.79%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.86%EV -10.12%E -4.13%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -3.19%E -0.886%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-06 08:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 36.46%EV -7.48%E -2.95%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 35.90%EV -5.35%E -2.08%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.64%EV -9.91%E -2.96%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-06 11:54
1xBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.11%EV -8.21%E -3.26%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 36.39%EV -5.72%E -2.23%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.49%EV -5.07%E -1.44%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 11:54
NordicBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.48%EV -8.21%E -3.26%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.48%EV -7.55%E -3.00%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -8.57%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-06 11:54
Betsson🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.48%EV -8.21%E -3.26%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.48%EV -7.55%E -3.00%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -8.57%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-06 11:50
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.09%EV -8.94%E -3.58%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -10.12%E -4.13%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -0.500%E -0.135%K -0.185%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-06 08:25
Bet Right🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -8.94%E -3.58%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.45%EV -10.12%E -4.13%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -4.53%E -1.28%K -1.78%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-06 08:25
Bet Victor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -8.94%E -3.58%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -10.12%E -4.13%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -5.88%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-06 11:49
betano_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -8.94%E -3.58%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -10.12%E -4.13%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -5.88%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-06 11:49
LeoVegas🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -8.94%E -3.58%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -8.29%E -3.32%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -8.57%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-06 11:54
Codere (IT)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -8.94%E -3.58%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -8.29%E -3.32%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -8.57%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-06 11:54
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -8.94%E -3.58%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -11.96%E -4.98%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -3.19%E -0.886%K -1.23%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-06 08:25
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -8.94%E -3.58%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -8.29%E -3.32%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -11.26%E -3.41%K -4.89%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-06 11:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -8.94%E -3.58%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -8.29%E -3.32%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -11.26%E -3.41%K -4.89%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-06 11:54
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -8.94%E -3.58%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -8.29%E -3.32%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -11.26%E -3.41%K -4.89%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-06 11:54
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -8.94%E -3.58%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -8.29%E -3.32%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -11.26%E -3.41%K -4.89%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-06 11:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -8.94%E -3.58%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -11.96%E -4.98%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -8.57%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-06 11:50
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.61%EV -8.94%E -3.58%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.41%EV -12.69%E -5.33%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.98%EV -11.26%E -3.41%K -4.89%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-06 11:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.61%EV -8.94%E -3.58%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.41%EV -12.69%E -5.33%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.98%EV -11.26%E -3.41%K -4.89%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-06 11:54
Unibet (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.14%EV -10.76%E -4.39%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.53%EV -3.52%E -1.34%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -4.53%E -1.28%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 04:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.14%EV -10.76%E -4.39%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.53%EV -3.52%E -1.34%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -4.53%E -1.28%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 04:00
Unibet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.14%EV -10.76%E -4.39%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.53%EV -3.52%E -1.34%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -4.53%E -1.28%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 03:59
Grosvenor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.14%EV -10.76%E -4.39%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.53%EV -3.52%E -1.34%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -4.53%E -1.28%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 03:59
TABtouch🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.14%EV -10.76%E -4.39%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.53%EV -3.52%E -1.34%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -4.53%E -1.28%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 05:15
betPARX🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.14%EV -10.76%E -4.39%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.53%EV -3.52%E -1.34%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -4.53%E -1.28%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 03:59
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.04%EV -10.76%E -4.39%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.04%EV -10.12%E -4.13%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -5.88%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-06 11:50
Paddy Power🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.02%EV -10.76%E -4.39%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.79%EV -11.96%E -4.98%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -3.19%E -0.886%K -1.23%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-06 09:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.02%EV -10.76%E -4.39%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.79%EV -11.96%E -4.98%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -3.19%E -0.886%K -1.23%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-06 11:45
PlayUp🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.88%EV -10.76%E -4.39%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.14%EV -8.29%E -3.32%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.97%EV -9.91%E -2.96%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-06 11:54
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.10%EV -12.58%E -5.24%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.10%EV -11.96%E -4.98%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.81%EV -7.22%E -2.09%K -2.95%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-06 11:50
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.80%EV -12.58%E -5.24%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.35%EV -15.63%E -6.79%K -12.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.85%EV -13.95%E -4.36%K -6.34%G +0.000%16.4%2026-09-06 11:45
BetRivers🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.71%EV -13.31%E -5.59%K -9.65%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -8.29%E -3.32%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -8.57%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-06 03:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.01%EV -14.40%E -6.13%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.73%EV -8.29%E -3.32%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -8.57%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-06 04:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.09%EV -16.23%E -7.05%K -12.48%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.76%EV -10.12%E -4.13%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.15%EV -9.91%E -2.96%K -4.22%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-06 03:59
LiveScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.09%EV -16.23%E -7.05%K -12.48%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.76%EV -10.12%E -4.13%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.15%EV -9.91%E -2.96%K -4.22%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-06 04:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi2.78I 35.97%NM 35.98%2.63I 38.02%NM 38.03%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.98%-0.0%2026-09-06 11:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.19%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.00%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.80%0.8%2026-09-06 11:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.19%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.00%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.80%0.8%2026-09-06 11:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.19%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.00%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.80%0.8%2026-09-06 11:50
Matchbook2.74I 36.50%NM 36.19%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.00%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.80%0.8%2026-09-06 11:55