The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Shenzhen Peng City FC v Liaoning Tieren FC

Kickoff: 2026-04-26 11:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Shenzhen Peng City FC (Local)

Prediction 37.38%2.68fair odd
EV -4.68%
Edge -1.84%
Kelly -3.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.52%37.49%37.40%39.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.432.452.5543.48%41.20%40.90%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Liaoning Tieren FC (Visit)

Prediction 34.53%2.90fair odd
EV -2.63%
Edge -0.931%
Kelly -1.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.73%34.41%34.58%35.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.712.712.8241.67%36.96%36.83%35.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.09%3.56fair odd
EV -1.68%
Edge -0.480%
Kelly -0.672%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.36%28.11%28.02%29.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.273.303.5034.72%30.56%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Shenzhen Peng City FC (Local): 37.38%; Liaoning Tieren FC (Visit): 34.53%; Draw: 28.09%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.56. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.50, with an expected value of -1.68%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -4.68%E -1.84%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -8.50%E -3.21%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -4.49%E -1.32%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-23 11:14
1xBet🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.60%EV -5.06%E -1.99%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.98%EV -2.97%E -1.06%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.42%EV -5.61%E -1.67%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-24 01:34
NordicBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.69%EV -5.80%E -2.30%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.29%EV -9.53%E -3.64%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -7.30%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-23 11:15
Betsson🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.69%EV -5.80%E -2.30%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.29%EV -9.53%E -3.64%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -7.30%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-23 11:15
Pinnacle🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 37.79%EV -6.18%E -2.46%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.64%EV -2.63%E -0.931%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.57%EV -6.74%E -2.03%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-23 11:55
BetUS🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 37.79%EV -6.18%E -2.46%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.64%EV -2.63%E -0.931%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.57%EV -6.74%E -2.03%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-23 11:49
LowVig.ag🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -6.55%E -2.62%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -3.32%E -1.18%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -10.11%E -3.16%K -4.59%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 22:39
BetOnline.ag🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -6.55%E -2.62%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -3.32%E -1.18%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -10.11%E -3.16%K -4.59%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 22:40
DraftKings🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -6.55%E -2.62%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -6.77%E -2.51%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -7.30%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 11:10
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -6.55%E -2.62%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -6.77%E -2.51%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -12.92%E -4.17%K -6.15%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-23 18:34
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -6.55%E -2.62%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -6.77%E -2.51%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -12.92%E -4.17%K -6.15%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-23 18:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -6.55%E -2.62%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -6.77%E -2.51%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -12.92%E -4.17%K -6.15%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-23 18:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -6.55%E -2.62%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -6.77%E -2.51%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -12.92%E -4.17%K -6.15%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-23 18:35
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -6.55%E -2.62%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -9.53%E -3.64%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -10.11%E -3.16%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-24 03:49
Bet Victor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.52%EV -6.55%E -2.62%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.81%EV -11.95%E -4.69%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.67%EV -7.30%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-23 15:09
Bovada🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 37.82%EV -6.93%E -2.78%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -3.32%E -1.18%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -7.30%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 11:49
Marathon Bet🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 37.65%EV -8.05%E -3.27%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 33.93%EV -5.73%E -2.10%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.41%EV -8.42%E -2.58%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-24 01:29
FanDuel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -8.42%E -3.44%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -8.50%E -3.21%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -1.68%E -0.480%K -0.672%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 11:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -8.42%E -3.44%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -6.77%E -2.51%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -4.49%E -1.32%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 12:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 36.93%EV -8.80%E -3.60%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.34%EV -11.95%E -4.69%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.73%EV -8.70%E -2.68%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-23 11:19
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -10.29%E -4.29%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.21%EV -9.53%E -3.64%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.36%EV -1.68%E -0.480%K -0.672%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-23 11:59
betfred_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -10.29%E -4.29%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -9.53%E -3.64%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -4.49%E -1.32%K -1.87%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-23 11:59
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -10.29%E -4.29%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -9.53%E -3.64%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -4.49%E -1.32%K -1.87%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-23 11:58
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -10.29%E -4.29%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.72%EV -13.68%E -5.47%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -7.30%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-23 11:14
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -12.16%E -5.17%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -3.32%E -1.18%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -7.30%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 11:09
Unibet (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -12.16%E -5.17%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -3.32%E -1.18%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -7.30%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 05:44
Unibet (NL)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -12.16%E -5.17%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -3.32%E -1.18%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -7.30%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 05:44
Unibet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -12.16%E -5.17%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -3.32%E -1.18%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -7.30%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 05:44
BetRivers🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -12.16%E -5.17%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -3.32%E -1.18%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -7.30%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 05:44
Grosvenor🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -12.16%E -5.17%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -3.32%E -1.18%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -7.30%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 05:44
TABtouch🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -12.16%E -5.17%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -3.32%E -1.18%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -7.30%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 05:44
LeoVegas🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -12.16%E -5.17%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -3.32%E -1.18%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -7.30%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 05:45
betPARX🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -12.16%E -5.17%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -3.32%E -1.18%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -7.30%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 05:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.03%EV -12.16%E -5.17%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -3.32%E -1.18%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.22%EV -8.70%E -2.68%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-23 05:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.14%EV -14.03%E -6.10%K -10.79%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -5.04%E -1.83%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -10.11%E -3.16%K -4.59%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-23 05:44
Virgin Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.14%EV -14.03%E -6.10%K -10.79%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -5.04%E -1.83%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -10.11%E -3.16%K -4.59%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-23 05:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.35%EV -14.03%E -6.10%K -10.79%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.80%EV -17.13%E -7.14%K -12.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.85%EV -10.11%E -3.16%K -4.59%G +0.000%16.4%2026-04-23 11:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 36.78%EV -14.03%E -6.10%K -10.79%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 33.84%EV -13.68%E -5.47%K -9.12%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.38%EV -19.10%E -6.63%K -10.16%G +0.000%18.2%2026-04-23 11:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.38I 42.02%NM 34.70%2.22I 45.05%NM 37.20%2.94I 34.01%NM 28.09%21.1%2026-04-24 03:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.38I 72.46%NM 40.11%2.80I 35.71%NM 19.77%1.38I 72.46%NM 40.11%80.6%2026-04-24 03:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.38I 72.46%NM 40.11%2.80I 35.71%NM 19.77%1.38I 72.46%NM 40.11%80.6%2026-04-24 03:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.38I 72.46%NM 40.11%2.80I 35.71%NM 19.77%1.38I 72.46%NM 40.11%80.6%2026-04-24 03:45