La escuela de los momios

Shanghai Shenhua FC v Liaoning Tieren FC

Inicio: 2026-04-18 12:00 UTC

Final: Shanghai Shenhua FC 3–1 Liaoning Tieren FC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

41 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Shanghai Shenhua FC (Local)

Predicción 66.03%1.51momio equitativo
EV -4.25%
Ventaja -2.93%
Kelly -9.45%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
63.88%66.01%66.03%68.26%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.321.381.401.4575.76%72.28%71.43%68.97%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Liaoning Tieren FC (Visitante)

Predicción 14.70%6.80momio equitativo
EV +4.82%
Ventaja +0.676%
Kelly +0.787%
Crecimiento +0.038%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.13

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
13.07%14.73%14.60%16.95%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
5.206.416.507.1319.23%15.60%15.38%14.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 19.27%5.19momio equitativo
EV -0.391%
Ventaja -0.076%
Kelly -0.094%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.17

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.35%19.26%19.37%20.59%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.204.784.855.1723.81%20.92%20.62%19.34%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (41 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle1.41I 70.92%NM 68.00%EV -6.90%E -4.89%K -16.82%G +0.000%7.13I 14.03%NM 13.45%EV +4.82%E +0.676%K +0.787%G +0.038%5.17I 19.34%NM 18.55%EV -0.391%E -0.076%K -0.094%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-18 11:30
LeoVegas1.35I 74.07%NM 68.10%EV -10.86%E -8.04%K -31.02%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV +2.91%E +0.416%K +0.485%G +0.014%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -5.59%E -1.14%K -1.43%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 08:59
BetRivers1.35I 74.07%NM 68.10%EV -10.86%E -8.04%K -31.02%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV +2.91%E +0.416%K +0.485%G +0.014%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -5.59%E -1.14%K -1.43%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 08:59
Grosvenor1.35I 74.07%NM 68.10%EV -10.86%E -8.04%K -31.02%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV +2.91%E +0.416%K +0.485%G +0.014%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -5.59%E -1.14%K -1.43%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 09:00
Unibet (SE)1.35I 74.07%NM 68.10%EV -10.86%E -8.04%K -31.02%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV +2.91%E +0.416%K +0.485%G +0.014%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -5.59%E -1.14%K -1.43%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 09:00
Unibet1.35I 74.07%NM 68.10%EV -10.86%E -8.04%K -31.02%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV +2.91%E +0.416%K +0.485%G +0.014%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -5.59%E -1.14%K -1.43%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 09:00
TABtouch1.35I 74.07%NM 68.10%EV -10.86%E -8.04%K -31.02%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV +2.91%E +0.416%K +0.485%G +0.014%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -5.59%E -1.14%K -1.43%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 09:00
betPARX1.35I 74.07%NM 68.10%EV -10.86%E -8.04%K -31.02%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV +2.91%E +0.416%K +0.485%G +0.014%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -5.59%E -1.14%K -1.43%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 09:00
Unibet (NL)1.35I 74.07%NM 68.10%EV -10.86%E -8.04%K -31.02%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV +2.91%E +0.416%K +0.485%G +0.014%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -5.59%E -1.14%K -1.43%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 09:00
LeoVegas (SE)1.34I 74.63%NM 68.26%EV -11.52%E -8.60%K -33.87%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV +2.91%E +0.416%K +0.485%G +0.014%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -5.59%E -1.14%K -1.43%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-18 09:00
LiveScore Bet1.32I 75.76%NM 68.00%EV -12.84%E -9.73%K -40.12%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.30%EV -0.765%E -0.113%K -0.133%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.70%EV -7.52%E -1.57%K -1.98%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-18 09:00
Virgin Bet1.32I 75.76%NM 68.00%EV -12.84%E -9.73%K -40.12%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.30%EV -0.765%E -0.113%K -0.133%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.70%EV -7.52%E -1.57%K -1.98%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-18 09:00
Tipico (DE)1.35I 74.07%NM 67.96%EV -10.86%E -8.04%K -31.02%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.69%EV -1.50%E -0.224%K -0.263%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.35%EV -3.67%E -0.733%K -0.917%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-18 04:05
LowVig.ag1.41I 70.92%NM 66.86%EV -6.90%E -4.89%K -16.82%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.28%EV -2.97%E -0.450%K -0.530%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -3.67%E -0.733%K -0.917%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-18 11:30
BetOnline.ag1.41I 70.92%NM 66.86%EV -6.90%E -4.89%K -16.82%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.28%EV -2.97%E -0.450%K -0.530%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -3.67%E -0.733%K -0.917%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-18 11:30
DraftKings1.43I 69.93%NM 66.14%EV -5.57%E -3.90%K -12.96%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.55%EV -4.44%E -0.683%K -0.807%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.30%EV -5.59%E -1.14%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-18 11:30
Bovada1.41I 70.92%NM 66.59%EV -6.90%E -4.89%K -16.82%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -4.44%E -0.683%K -0.807%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.97%EV -4.63%E -0.935%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-18 10:55
BetUS1.41I 70.92%NM 66.59%EV -6.90%E -4.89%K -16.82%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -4.44%E -0.683%K -0.807%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.97%EV -4.63%E -0.935%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-18 11:00
SportsBet1.40I 71.43%NM 66.22%EV -7.56%E -5.40%K -18.89%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV -4.44%E -0.683%K -0.807%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -8.48%E -1.79%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-18 11:30
PointsBet (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.22%EV -7.56%E -5.40%K -18.89%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV -4.44%E -0.683%K -0.807%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -8.48%E -1.79%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-18 11:30
betfred_uk1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -7.56%E -5.40%K -18.89%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -4.44%E -0.683%K -0.807%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -11.37%E -2.47%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-18 11:30
Bet Victor1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -7.56%E -5.40%K -18.89%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -4.44%E -0.683%K -0.807%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -11.37%E -2.47%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-18 10:59
FanDuel1.36I 73.53%NM 67.26%EV -10.20%E -7.50%K -28.32%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.07%EV -4.44%E -0.683%K -0.807%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -5.59%E -1.14%K -1.43%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-18 11:30
1xBet1.45I 68.97%NM 65.72%EV -4.25%E -2.93%K -9.45%G +0.000%6.44I 15.53%NM 14.80%EV -5.32%E -0.826%K -0.978%G +0.000%4.89I 20.45%NM 19.49%EV -5.79%E -1.18%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-18 11:30
Marathon Bet1.41I 70.92%NM 65.68%EV -6.90%E -4.89%K -16.82%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.82%EV -8.12%E -1.30%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -8.48%E -1.79%K -2.26%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-18 11:28
Everygame1.36I 73.53%NM 66.49%EV -10.20%E -7.50%K -28.32%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.47%EV -8.12%E -1.30%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.04%EV -8.48%E -1.79%K -2.26%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-18 10:59
Unibet (UK)1.42I 70.42%NM 65.25%EV -6.23%E -4.39%K -14.85%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV -11.79%E -1.97%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.30%EV -7.52%E -1.57%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-16 14:49
Betway1.43I 69.93%NM 64.26%EV -5.57%E -3.90%K -12.96%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.32%EV -11.79%E -1.97%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -13.30%E -2.96%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 11:00
888sport1.40I 71.43%NM 65.03%EV -7.56%E -5.40%K -18.89%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -11.79%E -1.97%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -11.37%E -2.47%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-18 11:00
William Hill1.40I 71.43%NM 65.03%EV -7.56%E -5.40%K -18.89%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -11.79%E -1.97%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -11.37%E -2.47%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-18 11:00
Mr Green (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.03%EV -7.56%E -5.40%K -18.89%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -11.79%E -1.97%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -11.37%E -2.47%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-18 11:00
888sport (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.03%EV -7.56%E -5.40%K -18.89%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -11.79%E -1.97%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -11.37%E -2.47%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-18 11:00
Paddy Power1.36I 73.53%NM 65.41%EV -10.20%E -7.50%K -28.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.83%EV -11.79%E -1.97%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.77%EV -13.30%E -2.96%K -3.80%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-18 11:30
Neds1.36I 73.53%NM 65.41%EV -10.20%E -7.50%K -28.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.83%EV -11.79%E -1.97%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.77%EV -13.30%E -2.96%K -3.80%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-18 11:00
Ladbrokes (AU)1.36I 73.53%NM 65.41%EV -10.20%E -7.50%K -28.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.83%EV -11.79%E -1.97%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.77%EV -13.30%E -2.96%K -3.80%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-18 11:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.33I 75.19%NM 65.01%EV -12.18%E -9.16%K -36.90%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.41%EV -11.79%E -1.97%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.59%EV -19.08%E -4.54%K -5.96%G +0.000%15.7%2026-04-18 11:00
NordicBet1.43I 69.93%NM 65.05%EV -5.57%E -3.90%K -12.96%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.77%EV -13.26%E -2.25%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.18%EV -6.56%E -1.35%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-18 11:30
Betsson1.43I 69.93%NM 65.05%EV -5.57%E -3.90%K -12.96%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.77%EV -13.26%E -2.25%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.18%EV -6.56%E -1.35%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-18 11:29
Codere (IT)1.42I 70.42%NM 64.64%EV -6.23%E -4.39%K -14.85%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.83%EV -14.73%E -2.54%K -3.07%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.53%EV -9.45%E -2.01%K -2.55%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-18 11:30
Winamax (DE)1.41I 70.92%NM 64.76%EV -6.90%E -4.89%K -16.82%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.60%EV -19.14%E -3.48%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.64%EV -5.59%E -1.14%K -1.43%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-18 11:30
Winamax (FR)1.38I 72.46%NM 63.88%EV -8.88%E -6.43%K -23.36%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.95%EV -23.55%E -4.53%K -5.61%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.16%EV -11.37%E -2.47%K -3.16%G +0.000%13.4%2026-04-18 11:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi1.45I 68.97%NM 69.00%7.69I 13.00%NM 13.01%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.99%-0.0%2026-04-18 11:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.48I 67.57%NM 66.84%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.13%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.02%1.1%2026-04-18 11:30
Matchbook1.47I 68.03%NM 67.23%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.12%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.65%1.2%2026-04-18 11:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.47I 68.03%NM 66.99%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.07%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.94%1.5%2026-04-18 11:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.47I 68.03%NM 66.99%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.07%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.94%1.5%2026-04-18 11:30