La escuela de los momios

Shanghai Shenhua FC v Chongqing Tonglianglong FC

Inicio: 2026-05-09 11:35 UTC

Final: Shanghai Shenhua FC 2–2 Chongqing Tonglianglong FC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

46 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Shanghai Shenhua FC (Local)

Predicción 60.61%1.65momio equitativo
EV -3.63%
Ventaja -2.28%
Kelly -6.16%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.59

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.57%60.63%60.61%63.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.431.511.521.5969.93%66.15%65.79%62.89%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (Visitante)

Predicción 16.94%5.90momio equitativo
EV +5.86%
Ventaja +0.938%
Kelly +1.12%
Crecimiento +0.065%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.88%16.91%16.92%18.68%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.755.585.506.2521.05%17.92%18.18%16.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 22.45%4.45momio equitativo
EV -3.22%
Ventaja -0.748%
Kelly -0.974%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.31

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.71%22.47%22.48%24.59%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.504.094.104.3128.57%24.43%24.39%23.20%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (46 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (SE)1.47I 68.03%NM 63.25%EV -10.91%E -7.42%K -23.20%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.88%EV +5.86%E +0.938%K +1.12%G +0.065%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV -4.57%E -1.08%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-05 20:40
Unibet (NL)1.47I 68.03%NM 63.25%EV -10.91%E -7.42%K -23.20%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.88%EV +5.86%E +0.938%K +1.12%G +0.065%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV -4.57%E -1.08%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-05 20:39
Unibet1.47I 68.03%NM 63.25%EV -10.91%E -7.42%K -23.20%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.88%EV +5.86%E +0.938%K +1.12%G +0.065%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV -4.57%E -1.08%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-05 20:40
TABtouch1.47I 68.03%NM 63.25%EV -10.91%E -7.42%K -23.20%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.88%EV +5.86%E +0.938%K +1.12%G +0.065%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV -4.57%E -1.08%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-05 20:40
Grosvenor1.47I 68.03%NM 63.25%EV -10.91%E -7.42%K -23.20%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.88%EV +5.86%E +0.938%K +1.12%G +0.065%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV -4.57%E -1.08%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-05 20:39
betPARX1.47I 68.03%NM 63.25%EV -10.91%E -7.42%K -23.20%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.88%EV +5.86%E +0.938%K +1.12%G +0.065%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%EV -4.57%E -1.08%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-05 20:40
BetRivers1.47I 68.03%NM 63.02%EV -10.91%E -7.42%K -23.20%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.19%EV +3.32%E +0.545%K +0.651%G +0.022%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.80%EV -4.57%E -1.08%K -1.41%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-05 20:39
LeoVegas1.45I 68.97%NM 63.17%EV -12.12%E -8.36%K -26.93%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.02%EV +3.32%E +0.545%K +0.651%G +0.022%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -5.69%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-05 20:39
LeoVegas (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 63.33%EV -12.72%E -8.84%K -28.92%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.95%EV +3.32%E +0.545%K +0.651%G +0.022%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -5.69%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-05 20:40
FanDuel1.48I 67.57%NM 62.54%EV -10.30%E -6.96%K -21.46%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.43%EV +1.63%E +0.271%K +0.326%G +0.005%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.04%EV -5.69%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-08 18:22
LiveScore Bet1.43I 69.93%NM 63.01%EV -13.33%E -9.32%K -31.00%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.02%EV +1.63%E +0.271%K +0.326%G +0.005%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.98%EV -7.94%E -1.94%K -2.56%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-05 20:39
Virgin Bet1.43I 69.93%NM 63.01%EV -13.33%E -9.32%K -31.00%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.02%EV +1.63%E +0.271%K +0.326%G +0.005%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.98%EV -7.94%E -1.94%K -2.56%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-05 20:40
Tipico (DE)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.21%EV -9.09%E -6.06%K -18.18%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.83%EV -1.76%E -0.303%K -0.367%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -10.18%E -2.55%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-08 21:38
Coolbet1.55I 64.52%NM 61.03%EV -6.06%E -3.91%K -11.01%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.45%EV -2.61%E -0.453%K -0.549%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.52%EV -5.69%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-08 20:59
DraftKings1.53I 65.36%NM 61.66%EV -7.27%E -4.75%K -13.72%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.41%EV -2.61%E -0.453%K -0.549%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.94%EV -3.45%E -0.802%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-08 15:15
PointsBet (AU)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.35%EV -6.06%E -3.91%K -11.01%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -2.61%E -0.453%K -0.549%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.38%EV -10.18%E -2.55%K -3.39%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-08 20:59
Bet Victor1.50I 66.67%NM 61.13%EV -9.09%E -6.06%K -18.18%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -2.61%E -0.453%K -0.549%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -10.18%E -2.55%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-08 23:39
Pinnacle1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.85%E -3.09%K -8.50%G +0.000%5.68I 17.61%NM 16.85%EV -3.79%E -0.668%K -0.810%G +0.000%4.31I 23.20%NM 22.20%EV -3.22%E -0.748%K -0.974%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-08 23:44
GTbets1.55I 64.52%NM 60.43%EV -6.06%E -3.91%K -11.01%G +0.000%5.64I 17.73%NM 16.61%EV -4.47%E -0.793%K -0.963%G +0.000%4.08I 24.51%NM 22.96%EV -8.39%E -2.06%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-08 20:59
BetOnline.ag1.56I 64.10%NM 60.28%EV -5.45%E -3.49%K -9.73%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV -5.15%E -0.919%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -7.94%E -1.94%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-08 20:54
LowVig.ag1.56I 64.10%NM 60.28%EV -5.45%E -3.49%K -9.73%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV -5.15%E -0.919%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -7.94%E -1.94%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-08 20:54
1xBet1.59I 62.89%NM 60.14%EV -3.63%E -2.28%K -6.16%G +0.000%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.20%EV -5.82%E -1.05%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.66%EV -5.24%E -1.24%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-09 00:04
Bovada1.56I 64.10%NM 60.42%EV -5.45%E -3.49%K -9.73%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.14%EV -6.84%E -1.24%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%EV -5.69%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-08 21:50
BetUS1.55I 64.52%NM 60.73%EV -6.06%E -3.91%K -11.01%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -6.84%E -1.24%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.15%EV -4.57%E -1.08%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-09 00:04
Unibet (UK)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.57%EV -6.06%E -3.91%K -11.01%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.07%EV -6.84%E -1.24%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -5.69%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-08 23:49
betfred_uk1.53I 65.36%NM 60.22%EV -7.27%E -4.75%K -13.72%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -6.84%E -1.24%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -10.18%E -2.55%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 21:00
Bet Right1.52I 65.79%NM 60.37%EV -7.88%E -5.18%K -15.15%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.68%EV -6.84%E -1.24%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%EV -10.18%E -2.55%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-08 21:00
SportsBet1.50I 66.67%NM 61.03%EV -9.09%E -6.06%K -18.18%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -6.84%E -1.24%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.33%EV -7.94%E -1.94%K -2.56%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-08 18:24
Paddy Power1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -9.09%E -6.06%K -18.18%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -6.84%E -1.24%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -10.18%E -2.55%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-08 18:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 59.76%EV -12.72%E -8.84%K -28.92%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.65%EV -6.84%E -1.24%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.59%EV -21.41%E -6.12%K -8.56%G +0.000%16.2%2026-05-08 20:09
Marathon Bet1.54I 64.94%NM 60.21%EV -6.66%E -4.33%K -12.34%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.17%EV -8.53%E -1.58%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.62%EV -7.94%E -1.94%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-09 00:03
NordicBet1.55I 64.52%NM 60.03%EV -6.06%E -3.91%K -11.01%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.55%EV -10.23%E -1.93%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.42%EV -6.82%E -1.64%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-08 23:45
Betsson1.55I 64.52%NM 60.03%EV -6.06%E -3.91%K -11.01%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.55%EV -10.23%E -1.93%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.42%EV -6.82%E -1.64%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-08 23:45
Betway1.55I 64.52%NM 60.09%EV -6.06%E -3.91%K -11.01%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.74%EV -11.08%E -2.11%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -5.69%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-08 21:54
Everygame1.53I 65.36%NM 59.74%EV -7.27%E -4.75%K -13.72%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.41%EV -11.08%E -2.11%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.85%EV -10.18%E -2.55%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-08 23:38
PlayUp1.52I 65.79%NM 59.37%EV -7.88%E -5.18%K -15.15%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.19%EV -11.08%E -2.11%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.44%EV -13.55%E -3.52%K -4.76%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-08 21:34
Ladbrokes (AU)1.50I 66.67%NM 59.87%EV -9.09%E -6.06%K -18.18%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.11%EV -11.08%E -2.11%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -12.43%E -3.19%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-08 22:29
Neds1.50I 66.67%NM 59.87%EV -9.09%E -6.06%K -18.18%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.11%EV -11.08%E -2.11%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -12.43%E -3.19%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-08 22:29
Codere (IT)1.53I 65.36%NM 59.97%EV -7.27%E -4.75%K -13.72%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.65%EV -11.92%E -2.29%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.38%EV -7.94%E -1.94%K -2.56%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-08 23:50
Winamax (DE)1.52I 65.79%NM 60.03%EV -7.88%E -5.18%K -15.15%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.25%EV -15.31%E -3.06%K -3.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.72%EV -5.69%E -1.36%K -1.78%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-08 23:45
William Hill1.55I 64.52%NM 58.57%EV -6.06%E -3.91%K -11.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.16%EV -15.31%E -3.06%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.28%EV -12.43%E -3.19%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-08 22:29
888sport1.53I 65.36%NM 58.88%EV -7.27%E -4.75%K -13.72%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.02%EV -15.31%E -3.06%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -12.43%E -3.19%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-08 22:30
888sport (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 58.88%EV -7.27%E -4.75%K -13.72%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.02%EV -15.31%E -3.06%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -12.43%E -3.19%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-08 22:29
Mr Green (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 58.88%EV -7.27%E -4.75%K -13.72%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.02%EV -15.31%E -3.06%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -12.43%E -3.19%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-08 22:29
Winamax (FR)1.48I 67.57%NM 59.58%EV -10.30%E -6.96%K -21.46%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.37%EV -18.70%E -3.90%K -4.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.05%EV -10.18%E -2.55%K -3.39%G +0.000%13.4%2026-05-08 23:49
BoyleSports1.50I 66.67%NM 59.14%EV -9.09%E -6.06%K -18.18%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.68%EV -19.54%E -4.11%K -5.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.18%EV -10.18%E -2.55%K -3.39%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-08 20:54
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi1.59I 62.89%NM 61.73%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.69%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.57%1.9%2026-05-08 23:19
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.57I 63.69%NM 62.42%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.31%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.27%2.0%2026-05-08 23:19
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 62.42%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.31%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.27%2.0%2026-05-08 23:14
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.57I 63.69%NM 62.42%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.31%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.27%2.0%2026-05-08 23:19
Matchbook1.57I 63.69%NM 62.42%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.31%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.27%2.0%2026-05-08 23:14