La escuela de los momios

Shandong Luneng Taishan FC v Beijing FC

Inicio: 2026-03-14 07:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

48 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Shandong Luneng Taishan FC (Local)

Predicción 45.75%2.19momio equitativo
EV -3.93%
Ventaja -1.87%
Kelly -3.57%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
44.75%45.89%45.74%47.14%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.832.002.012.1054.64%49.96%49.75%47.62%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Beijing FC (Visitante)

Predicción 30.15%3.32momio equitativo
EV +2.51%
Ventaja +0.738%
Kelly +1.05%
Crecimiento +0.026%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.65%30.11%30.18%31.21%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.753.043.003.4036.36%32.90%33.33%29.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 24.10%4.15momio equitativo
EV +1.22%
Ventaja +0.291%
Kelly +0.383%
Crecimiento +0.005%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.38%24.00%24.08%25.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.793.804.2030.30%26.36%26.32%23.81%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (48 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
LowVig.ag2.10I 47.62%NM 46.38%EV -3.93%E -1.87%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.65%EV +2.51%E +0.738%K +1.05%G +0.026%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.97%EV -6.01%E -1.54%K -2.07%G +0.000%2.7%2026-03-14 06:14
BetOnline.ag2.10I 47.62%NM 46.38%EV -3.93%E -1.87%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.65%EV +2.51%E +0.738%K +1.05%G +0.026%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.97%EV -6.01%E -1.54%K -2.07%G +0.000%2.7%2026-03-14 06:15
Pinnacle2.07I 48.31%NM 46.45%EV -5.30%E -2.56%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.14%EV -0.505%E -0.153%K -0.219%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.41%EV -5.04%E -1.28%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-14 06:30
1xBet2.06I 48.54%NM 46.37%EV -5.76%E -2.79%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.39%EV -2.01%E -0.619%K -0.894%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.24%EV -5.04%E -1.28%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-14 06:25
Bovada2.03I 49.26%NM 46.26%EV -7.13%E -3.51%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -3.52%E -1.10%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.39%EV -7.21%E -1.87%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-14 06:23
BetUS2.03I 49.26%NM 46.26%EV -7.13%E -3.51%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -3.52%E -1.10%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.39%EV -7.21%E -1.87%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-14 06:24
GTbets2.07I 48.31%NM 45.56%EV -5.30%E -2.56%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.56%EV -3.82%E -1.20%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 24.88%EV -8.66%E -2.28%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-11 14:55
DraftKings2.05I 48.78%NM 46.09%EV -6.21%E -3.03%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.99%EV -5.03%E -1.60%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.92%EV -4.80%E -1.22%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-14 06:24
Marathon Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 46.34%EV -8.50%E -4.25%K -8.50%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.52%EV -5.33%E -1.70%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.14%EV -7.45%E -1.94%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-14 06:30
Coolbet2.03I 49.26%NM 46.77%EV -7.13%E -3.51%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.63%EV -6.53%E -2.11%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.60%EV +1.22%E +0.291%K +0.383%G +0.005%5.3%2026-03-14 06:30
FanDuel2.00I 50.00%NM 47.14%EV -8.50%E -4.25%K -8.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -6.53%E -2.11%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.45%EV +1.22%E +0.291%K +0.383%G +0.005%6.1%2026-03-14 06:30
Unibet (UK)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.44%EV -6.21%E -3.03%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -6.53%E -2.11%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -8.42%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-14 00:45
Tipico (DE)1.97I 50.76%NM 46.72%EV -9.87%E -5.01%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -6.53%E -2.11%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.60%EV -6.01%E -1.54%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-14 06:30
888sport2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -8.50%E -4.25%K -8.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -6.53%E -2.11%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -10.83%E -2.93%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-14 04:20
William Hill2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -8.50%E -4.25%K -8.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -6.53%E -2.11%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -10.83%E -2.93%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-14 04:19
888sport (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -8.50%E -4.25%K -8.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -6.53%E -2.11%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -10.83%E -2.93%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-14 04:20
Mr Green (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -8.50%E -4.25%K -8.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -6.53%E -2.11%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -10.83%E -2.93%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-14 04:20
Everygame2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -8.50%E -4.25%K -8.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -6.53%E -2.11%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.98%EV -12.03%E -3.30%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-14 05:35
NordicBet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.07%EV -6.21%E -3.03%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.29%EV -8.04%E -2.64%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.64%EV -9.62%E -2.57%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-14 00:44
Betsson2.05I 48.78%NM 45.07%EV -6.21%E -3.03%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.29%EV -8.04%E -2.64%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.64%EV -9.62%E -2.57%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-14 00:45
Codere (IT)2.03I 49.26%NM 45.31%EV -7.13%E -3.51%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV -8.04%E -2.64%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -9.62%E -2.57%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-14 00:49
PointsBet (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -6.21%E -3.03%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -9.55%E -3.18%K -4.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -3.60%E -0.899%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 05:34
Betway2.05I 48.78%NM 44.84%EV -6.21%E -3.03%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -9.55%E -3.18%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -9.62%E -2.57%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-14 05:05
Bet Victor2.00I 50.00%NM 45.88%EV -8.50%E -4.25%K -8.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.59%EV -9.55%E -3.18%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -6.01%E -1.54%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-13 09:49
SportsBet1.95I 51.28%NM 47.05%EV -10.79%E -5.53%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.58%EV -9.55%E -3.18%K -4.77%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.38%EV -1.19%E -0.289%K -0.383%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-14 06:30
TABtouch2.02I 49.50%NM 45.35%EV -7.59%E -3.76%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.54%EV -9.55%E -3.18%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.11%EV -8.42%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-09 09:09
Unibet (SE)2.02I 49.50%NM 45.35%EV -7.59%E -3.76%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.54%EV -9.55%E -3.18%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.11%EV -8.42%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-09 09:09
LeoVegas2.02I 49.50%NM 45.35%EV -7.59%E -3.76%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.54%EV -9.55%E -3.18%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.11%EV -8.42%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-09 09:09
Unibet (NL)2.02I 49.50%NM 45.35%EV -7.59%E -3.76%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.54%EV -9.55%E -3.18%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.11%EV -8.42%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-09 09:09
Grosvenor2.02I 49.50%NM 45.35%EV -7.59%E -3.76%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.54%EV -9.55%E -3.18%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.11%EV -8.42%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-09 09:09
Unibet2.02I 49.50%NM 45.35%EV -7.59%E -3.76%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.54%EV -9.55%E -3.18%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.11%EV -8.42%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-09 09:10
betPARX2.02I 49.50%NM 45.35%EV -7.59%E -3.76%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.54%EV -9.55%E -3.18%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.11%EV -8.42%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-09 09:10
BetRivers2.02I 49.50%NM 45.35%EV -7.59%E -3.76%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.54%EV -9.55%E -3.18%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.11%EV -8.42%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-09 09:13
Bet Right1.98I 50.51%NM 46.27%EV -9.42%E -4.76%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.54%EV -9.55%E -3.18%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.19%EV -4.80%E -1.22%K -1.63%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-14 06:30
Winamax (DE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.74%EV -8.50%E -4.25%K -8.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.50%EV -9.55%E -3.18%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.76%EV -7.21%E -1.87%K -2.53%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-14 00:45
LeoVegas (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -8.50%E -4.25%K -8.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -9.55%E -3.18%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -8.42%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-09 09:14
PlayUp2.02I 49.50%NM 44.75%EV -7.59%E -3.76%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -9.55%E -3.18%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.11%EV -13.24%E -3.68%K -5.09%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-14 05:29
Virgin Bet1.97I 50.76%NM 45.45%EV -9.87%E -5.01%K -10.18%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.35%EV -11.06%E -3.75%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -10.83%E -2.93%K -4.01%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-09 09:09
LiveScore Bet1.97I 50.76%NM 45.45%EV -9.87%E -5.01%K -10.18%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.35%EV -11.06%E -3.75%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -10.83%E -2.93%K -4.01%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-09 09:14
Ladbrokes (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 44.84%EV -8.50%E -4.25%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -12.56%E -4.33%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.24%EV -10.83%E -2.93%K -4.01%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-14 04:35
Neds2.00I 50.00%NM 44.84%EV -8.50%E -4.25%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -12.56%E -4.33%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.24%EV -10.83%E -2.93%K -4.01%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-14 04:34
Paddy Power1.95I 51.28%NM 45.75%EV -10.79%E -5.53%K -11.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.77%EV -12.56%E -4.33%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.48%EV -8.42%E -2.21%K -3.01%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-14 05:45
Parions Sport (FR)1.91I 52.36%NM 45.52%EV -12.62%E -6.61%K -13.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.98%EV -12.56%E -4.33%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.49%EV -14.44%E -4.07%K -5.66%G +0.000%15.0%2026-03-14 00:44
Unibet (FR)1.89I 52.91%NM 45.60%EV -13.53%E -7.16%K -15.21%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.92%EV -13.17%E -4.57%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 24.48%EV -15.16%E -4.31%K -6.02%G +0.000%16.0%2026-03-14 00:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 45.66%EV -16.28%E -8.90%K -19.61%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.01%EV -13.17%E -4.57%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.32%EV -20.47%E -6.20%K -8.90%G +0.000%19.7%2026-03-14 06:30
Winamax (FR)1.94I 51.55%NM 45.20%EV -11.25%E -5.80%K -11.96%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.77%EV -14.07%E -4.94%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.03%EV -12.03%E -3.30%K -4.54%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-14 00:45
BoyleSports1.87I 53.48%NM 45.90%EV -14.45%E -7.73%K -16.61%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.21%EV -17.09%E -6.21%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.89%EV -9.62%E -2.57%K -3.50%G +0.000%16.5%2026-03-14 05:30
PMU (FR)1.85I 54.05%NM 45.73%EV -15.36%E -8.31%K -18.08%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 30.77%EV -17.09%E -6.21%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.50%EV -13.24%E -3.68%K -5.09%G +0.000%18.2%2026-03-14 05:44
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.14I 46.73%NM 46.55%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.74%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.72%0.4%2026-03-14 06:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.12I 47.17%NM 46.31%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.75%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.94%1.9%2026-03-14 06:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.12I 47.17%NM 46.31%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.75%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.94%1.9%2026-03-14 06:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.12I 47.17%NM 46.31%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.75%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.94%1.9%2026-03-14 06:10
Kalshi2.08I 48.08%NM 47.09%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.42%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.49%2.1%2026-03-14 05:05