The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Qingdao West Coast FC v Liaoning Tieren FC

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 11:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Qingdao West Coast FC (Local)

Prediction 37.97%2.63fair odd
EV -2.03%
Edge -0.788%
Kelly -1.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.29%38.02%38.02%39.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.402.402.5843.48%41.64%41.67%38.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Liaoning Tieren FC (Visit)

Prediction 33.44%2.99fair odd
EV -4.70%
Edge -1.65%
Kelly -2.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.44%33.44%33.38%34.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.762.772.8538.46%36.23%36.04%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.59%3.50fair odd
EV -2.80%
Edge -0.822%
Kelly -1.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.40%28.54%28.60%29.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.213.203.4034.72%31.19%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Qingdao West Coast FC (Local): 37.97%; Liaoning Tieren FC (Visit): 33.44%; Draw: 28.59%. For Qingdao West Coast FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.63. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.58, with an expected value of -2.03%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 37.35%EV -2.03%E -0.788%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.81%EV -4.70%E -1.65%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.85%EV -4.51%E -1.35%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-11 10:55
BetUS🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.29%EV -4.31%E -1.71%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.80%EV -7.04%E -2.53%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.91%EV -7.08%E -2.18%K -3.15%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-11 10:50
DraftKings🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.95%EV -5.07%E -2.03%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.29%EV -4.70%E -1.65%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -5.66%E -1.71%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-11 10:15
1xBet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.68%EV -5.83%E -2.35%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 33.74%EV -7.37%E -2.66%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 28.58%EV -6.51%E -1.99%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-11 10:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 37.54%EV -6.21%E -2.51%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 33.48%EV -7.37%E -2.66%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.98%EV -8.51%E -2.66%K -3.87%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-11 10:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.21%EV -6.97%E -2.84%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -6.37%E -2.28%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -5.66%E -1.71%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-11 10:44
Tipico (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -6.97%E -2.84%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -6.37%E -2.28%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -11.37%E -3.67%K -5.42%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-11 10:55
888sport🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.41%EV -6.97%E -2.84%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -9.71%E -3.60%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -8.51%E -2.66%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-11 10:50
William Hill🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.41%EV -6.97%E -2.84%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -9.71%E -3.60%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -8.51%E -2.66%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-11 10:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.41%EV -6.97%E -2.84%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -9.71%E -3.60%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -8.51%E -2.66%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-11 10:50
Bet Victor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.41%EV -6.97%E -2.84%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -9.71%E -3.60%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -8.51%E -2.66%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-11 10:53
NordicBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.24%EV -8.11%E -3.35%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.29%EV -7.04%E -2.53%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.47%EV -7.08%E -2.18%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-11 10:44
Betsson🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.24%EV -8.11%E -3.35%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.29%EV -7.04%E -2.53%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.47%EV -7.08%E -2.18%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-11 10:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 37.71%EV -8.11%E -3.35%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 33.31%EV -8.38%E -3.06%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.97%EV -9.94%E -3.16%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-11 10:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 37.71%EV -8.11%E -3.35%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 33.31%EV -8.38%E -3.06%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.97%EV -9.94%E -3.16%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-11 10:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 38.20%EV -8.49%E -3.52%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -8.04%E -2.92%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%EV -7.08%E -2.18%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-11 10:44
FanDuel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -8.87%E -3.69%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -6.37%E -2.28%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -2.80%E -0.822%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-11 10:09
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -8.87%E -3.69%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -6.37%E -2.28%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -5.66%E -1.71%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-11 10:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -8.87%E -3.69%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -6.37%E -2.28%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -5.66%E -1.71%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-11 10:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -8.87%E -3.69%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.04%E -2.92%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -8.51%E -2.66%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-11 10:25
Everygame🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -8.87%E -3.69%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.97%EV -8.04%E -2.92%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.25%EV -11.37%E -3.67%K -5.42%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-11 10:20
LeoVegas🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -9.63%E -4.05%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -6.37%E -2.28%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -8.51%E -2.66%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 03:15
TABtouch🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -9.63%E -4.05%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -6.37%E -2.28%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -8.51%E -2.66%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 03:15
betPARX🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -9.63%E -4.05%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -6.37%E -2.28%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -8.51%E -2.66%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 03:15
BetRivers🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -9.63%E -4.05%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -6.37%E -2.28%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -8.51%E -2.66%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 03:14
Grosvenor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -9.63%E -4.05%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -6.37%E -2.28%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -8.51%E -2.66%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 03:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -9.63%E -4.05%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -6.37%E -2.28%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -8.51%E -2.66%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 03:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -9.63%E -4.05%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -6.37%E -2.28%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -8.51%E -2.66%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 03:15
Unibet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -9.63%E -4.05%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -6.37%E -2.28%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -8.51%E -2.66%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 03:14
Unibet (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -9.63%E -4.05%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -6.37%E -2.28%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -8.51%E -2.66%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 03:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.48%EV -10.77%E -4.58%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.12%EV -11.39%E -4.30%K -6.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -5.66%E -1.71%K -2.46%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-11 10:44
LiveScore Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.76%EV -11.91%E -5.13%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.70%EV -8.04%E -2.92%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.55%EV -9.94%E -3.16%K -4.62%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-11 03:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.76%EV -11.91%E -5.13%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.70%EV -8.04%E -2.92%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.55%EV -9.94%E -3.16%K -4.62%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-11 03:15
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -12.67%E -5.51%K -9.74%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.28%EV -9.71%E -3.60%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.65%EV -7.08%E -2.18%K -3.15%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-11 10:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -12.67%E -5.51%K -9.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -8.04%E -2.92%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -11.37%E -3.67%K -5.42%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-11 10:00
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -12.67%E -5.51%K -9.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -8.04%E -2.92%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -11.37%E -3.67%K -5.42%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-11 10:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.41%EV -12.67%E -5.51%K -9.74%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.98%EV -13.06%E -5.02%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.61%EV -8.51%E -2.66%K -3.87%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-11 10:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.41%EV -12.67%E -5.51%K -9.74%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.72%EV -12.06%E -4.58%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.88%EV -17.66%E -6.13%K -9.40%G +0.000%16.2%2026-04-11 10:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.21%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.67%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.11%1.0%2026-04-11 10:55
Kalshi◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.66%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.66%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68%1.1%2026-04-11 10:10
Matchbook◎2.68I 37.31%NM 36.87%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.07%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.06%1.2%2026-04-11 10:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.13%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.82%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.05%1.3%2026-04-11 10:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.68I 37.31%NM 36.71%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.92%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.37%1.6%2026-04-11 10:55