Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Qingdao West Coast FC v Chengdu Rongcheng FC

Kickoff: 2026-07-17 11:00 UTC

Final: Qingdao West Coast FC 1–1 Chengdu Rongcheng FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

46 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Qingdao West Coast FC (Local)

Prediction 25.20%3.97fair odd
EV +7.10%
Edge +1.67%
Kelly +2.19%
Growth +0.155%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.78%25.02%25.22%26.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.783.704.2530.30%26.45%27.03%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chengdu Rongcheng FC (Visit)

Prediction 50.03%2.00fair odd
EV -3.44%
Edge -1.78%
Kelly -3.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.19%50.20%50.16%55.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.811.831.9359.88%55.22%54.64%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.77%4.04fair odd
EV +1.56%
Edge +0.380%
Kelly +0.502%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.57%24.78%24.63%25.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.753.754.1027.78%26.68%26.67%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Qingdao West Coast FC (Local): 25.20%; Chengdu Rongcheng FC (Visit): 50.03%; Draw: 24.77%. For Qingdao West Coast FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.97. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.10%.

Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV +7.10%E +1.67%K +2.19%G +0.155%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.87%EV -13.45%E -7.77%K -18.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.21%EV -4.64%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-17 10:35
Unibet (SE)4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV +7.10%E +1.67%K +2.19%G +0.155%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.87%EV -13.45%E -7.77%K -18.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.21%EV -4.64%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-17 10:35
Unibet4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV +7.10%E +1.67%K +2.19%G +0.155%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.87%EV -13.45%E -7.77%K -18.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.21%EV -4.64%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-17 10:40
Grosvenor4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV +7.10%E +1.67%K +2.19%G +0.155%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.87%EV -13.45%E -7.77%K -18.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.21%EV -4.64%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-17 10:35
TABtouch4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV +7.10%E +1.67%K +2.19%G +0.155%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.87%EV -13.45%E -7.77%K -18.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.21%EV -4.64%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-17 10:35
betPARX4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV +7.10%E +1.67%K +2.19%G +0.155%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.87%EV -13.45%E -7.77%K -18.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.21%EV -4.64%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-17 10:40
BetRivers4.25I 23.53%NM 21.79%EV +7.10%E +1.67%K +2.19%G +0.155%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.84%EV -13.95%E -8.11%K -19.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -5.87%E -1.55%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-17 10:35
BetUS4.20I 23.81%NM 22.03%EV +5.84%E +1.39%K +1.83%G +0.107%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.40%EV -16.45%E -9.85%K -24.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.57%EV +1.56%E +0.380%K +0.502%G +0.008%8.1%2026-07-17 06:20
LeoVegas (SE)4.20I 23.81%NM 21.78%EV +5.84%E +1.39%K +1.83%G +0.107%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.82%EV -14.95%E -8.79%K -21.36%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -7.11%E -1.90%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-17 10:35
LiveScore Bet4.10I 24.39%NM 21.91%EV +3.32%E +0.811%K +1.07%G +0.036%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.80%EV -16.45%E -9.85%K -24.55%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.28%EV -8.35%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-17 10:35
Virgin Bet4.10I 24.39%NM 21.91%EV +3.32%E +0.811%K +1.07%G +0.036%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.80%EV -16.45%E -9.85%K -24.55%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.28%EV -8.35%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-17 10:35
Pinnacle3.91I 25.58%NM 24.58%EV -1.46%E -0.374%K -0.503%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.06%EV -3.94%E -2.05%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.36%EV -6.12%E -1.62%K -2.19%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-17 10:55
FanDuel3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -1.72%E -0.440%K -0.592%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -8.45%E -4.62%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.35%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-17 10:54
SportsBet3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -4.24%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -7.11%E -1.90%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-17 10:50
Tipico (DE)3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -4.24%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -8.45%E -4.62%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -10.83%E -3.01%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-17 10:50
BetOnline.ag3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV -5.50%E -1.47%K -2.00%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -3.44%E -1.78%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.88%EV -9.59%E -2.63%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-17 10:50
LowVig.ag3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV -5.50%E -1.47%K -2.00%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -3.44%E -1.78%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.88%EV -9.59%E -2.63%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-17 10:50
Coolbet3.75I 26.67%NM 25.13%EV -5.50%E -1.47%K -2.00%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.39%EV -6.45%E -3.45%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.48%EV -4.64%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-17 10:35
Betway3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -5.50%E -1.47%K -2.00%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.93%EV -5.95%E -3.16%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -7.11%E -1.90%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-17 10:50
1xBet3.73I 26.81%NM 25.04%EV -6.00%E -1.61%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.32%EV -8.95%E -4.92%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.64%EV -2.16%E -0.546%K -0.732%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-17 10:55
GTbets3.71I 26.95%NM 24.94%EV -6.50%E -1.75%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 51.69%EV -10.45%E -5.84%K -13.23%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 23.37%EV -1.91%E -0.483%K -0.646%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-17 10:00
DraftKings3.70I 27.03%NM 25.49%EV -6.76%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.37%EV -4.44%E -2.33%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -7.11%E -1.90%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-17 10:55
Bovada3.70I 27.03%NM 25.37%EV -6.76%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.93%EV -5.95%E -3.16%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -5.87%E -1.55%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-17 10:55
PointsBet (AU)3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -6.76%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.33%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -5.87%E -1.55%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-17 10:35
Marathon Bet3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -6.76%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.07%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 24.90%EV -7.86%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-17 10:55
betano_uk3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -6.76%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.85%EV -9.95%E -5.53%K -12.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.41%EV -7.11%E -1.90%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-17 10:25
Bet Victor3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -6.76%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.85%EV -9.95%E -5.53%K -12.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.41%EV -7.11%E -1.90%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-17 10:24
Paddy Power3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -6.76%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.34%EV -9.95%E -5.53%K -12.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.17%EV -10.83%E -3.01%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-17 10:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -6.76%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.34%EV -9.95%E -5.53%K -12.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.17%EV -10.83%E -3.01%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-17 10:45
Everygame3.65I 27.40%NM 24.95%EV -8.02%E -2.20%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.76%EV -8.45%E -4.62%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -10.83%E -3.01%K -4.16%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-17 10:49
Unibet (UK)3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -9.28%E -2.58%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.58%EV -5.95%E -3.16%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -5.87%E -1.55%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-17 10:05
NordicBet3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -9.28%E -2.58%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.82%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -7.11%E -1.90%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-17 10:05
Betsson3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -9.28%E -2.58%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.82%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -7.11%E -1.90%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-17 10:05
betfred_uk3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -9.28%E -2.58%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -8.45%E -4.62%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -7.11%E -1.90%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-17 10:10
Bet Right3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -9.28%E -2.58%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -8.45%E -4.62%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -7.11%E -1.90%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-17 10:35
888sport3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -9.28%E -2.58%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -10.83%E -3.01%K -4.16%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-17 10:50
William Hill3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -9.28%E -2.58%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -10.83%E -3.01%K -4.16%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-17 10:50
Unibet (FR)3.60I 27.78%NM 25.31%EV -9.28%E -2.58%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.06%EV -8.95%E -4.92%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.63%EV -8.35%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-17 10:05
Codere (IT)3.55I 28.17%NM 25.87%EV -10.54%E -2.97%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.64%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -7.11%E -1.90%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-17 10:05
LeoVegas3.55I 28.17%NM 25.87%EV -10.54%E -2.97%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.64%EV -7.45%E -4.03%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -7.11%E -1.90%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-17 10:35
Ladbrokes (AU)3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -11.80%E -3.37%K -4.72%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.23%EV -8.45%E -4.62%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -10.83%E -3.01%K -4.16%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-17 09:55
Neds3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -11.80%E -3.37%K -4.72%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.23%EV -8.45%E -4.62%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -10.83%E -3.01%K -4.16%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-17 09:55
Winamax (DE)3.45I 28.99%NM 26.37%EV -13.06%E -3.78%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.99%EV -8.95%E -4.92%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.63%EV -4.64%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-17 10:05
PlayUp3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -14.32%E -4.21%K -5.97%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.19%EV -5.95%E -3.16%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.17%EV -10.83%E -3.01%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-17 10:50
BoyleSports3.40I 29.41%NM 25.83%EV -14.32%E -4.21%K -5.97%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 50.76%EV -13.45%E -7.77%K -18.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.42%EV -7.11%E -1.90%K -2.59%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-17 10:00
Winamax (FR)3.30I 30.30%NM 26.61%EV -16.84%E -5.10%K -7.32%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 49.33%EV -10.95%E -6.15%K -14.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.06%EV -9.59%E -2.63%K -3.62%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-17 10:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.10I 24.39%NM 24.23%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.94%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.83%0.7%2026-07-17 10:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.10I 24.39%NM 24.23%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.94%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.83%0.7%2026-07-17 10:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.10I 24.39%NM 24.23%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.94%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.83%0.7%2026-07-17 10:55
Matchbook4.10I 24.39%NM 24.15%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.78%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.07%1.0%2026-07-17 10:55
Kalshi4.17I 23.98%NM 23.73%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.53%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.74%1.1%2026-07-17 10:40