Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Qingdao Hainiu FC v Chongqing Tonglianglong FC

Kickoff: 2026-05-24 09:00 UTC

Final: Qingdao Hainiu FC 0–1 Chongqing Tonglianglong FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

46 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Qingdao Hainiu FC (Local)

Prediction 40.97%2.44fair odd
EV -3.32%
Edge -1.41%
Kelly -2.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.27%40.97%40.77%41.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.272.282.3647.62%44.05%43.86%42.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (Visit)

Prediction 27.86%3.59fair odd
EV +1.69%
Edge +0.464%
Kelly +0.639%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.94%27.82%28.02%30.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.253.253.6533.90%30.73%30.77%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.17%3.21fair odd
EV -3.37%
Edge -1.09%
Kelly -1.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.58%31.21%31.20%32.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.962.983.1036.36%33.80%33.61%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Qingdao Hainiu FC (Local): 40.97%; Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (Visit): 27.86%; Draw: 31.17%. For Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.59. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.69%.

Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.17%EV -5.77%E -2.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.94%EV +1.69%E +0.464%K +0.639%G +0.011%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.88%EV -10.23%E -3.55%K -5.44%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-24 08:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.17%EV -5.77%E -2.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.94%EV +1.69%E +0.464%K +0.639%G +0.011%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.88%EV -10.23%E -3.55%K -5.44%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-24 08:39
Pinnacle🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.77%EV -3.32%E -1.41%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.51%EV +1.14%E +0.313%K +0.432%G +0.005%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.73%EV -8.36%E -2.84%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-24 08:50
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -7.82%E -3.48%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV +0.299%E +0.083%K +0.115%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -8.04%E -2.73%K -4.13%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-24 08:49
BetUS🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 40.77%EV -5.36%E -2.32%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.53%EV -1.09%E -0.308%K -0.429%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.70%EV -10.23%E -3.55%K -5.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-24 08:50
Bovada🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 40.98%EV -6.18%E -2.70%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -1.09%E -0.308%K -0.429%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.58%EV -10.23%E -3.55%K -5.44%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-24 08:49
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.26%EV -5.77%E -2.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -2.49%E -0.711%K -0.995%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -6.49%E -2.16%K -3.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-24 08:40
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.21%EV -7.82%E -3.48%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -2.49%E -0.711%K -0.995%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.30%EV -10.54%E -3.67%K -5.64%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-24 08:49
Marathon Bet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.02%EV -7.41%E -3.28%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 26.79%EV -3.60%E -1.04%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.19%EV -10.23%E -3.55%K -5.44%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-24 08:50
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -5.77%E -2.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.27%E -1.55%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -6.49%E -2.16%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-24 08:40
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -7.82%E -3.48%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -5.27%E -1.55%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -11.16%E -3.92%K -6.03%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-24 08:49
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.11%EV -9.87%E -4.49%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -5.27%E -1.55%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -12.72%E -4.54%K -7.07%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-24 08:50
1xBet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.95%EV -8.64%E -3.88%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.68%EV -5.83%E -1.72%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.37%EV -3.99%E -1.30%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-24 08:50
Everygame🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.40%EV -7.82%E -3.48%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.13%EV -6.67%E -1.99%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.46%EV -12.72%E -4.54%K -7.07%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-24 08:40
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -5.77%E -2.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -8.06%E -2.44%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -3.37%E -1.09%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-24 08:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -7.82%E -3.48%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -8.06%E -2.44%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -3.37%E -1.09%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-24 08:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.33%EV -7.82%E -3.48%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.18%EV -8.06%E -2.44%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.49%EV -4.93%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-24 08:39
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -7.82%E -3.48%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -9.45%E -2.91%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -6.49%E -2.16%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-24 08:40
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -7.82%E -3.48%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -9.45%E -2.91%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -6.49%E -2.16%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-24 08:40
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -7.82%E -3.48%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -9.45%E -2.91%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -6.49%E -2.16%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-24 08:49
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -7.82%E -3.48%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -9.45%E -2.91%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -6.49%E -2.16%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-24 08:50
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -5.77%E -2.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -9.45%E -2.91%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -9.60%E -3.31%K -5.05%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-24 08:40
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -5.77%E -2.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -9.45%E -2.91%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -9.60%E -3.31%K -5.05%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-24 08:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -5.77%E -2.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -9.45%E -2.91%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -9.60%E -3.31%K -5.05%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-24 08:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -5.77%E -2.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -9.45%E -2.91%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -9.60%E -3.31%K -5.05%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-24 08:49
Codere (IT)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.16%EV -8.64%E -3.88%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -9.45%E -2.91%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.60%EV -6.49%E -2.16%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-24 08:39
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.16%EV -11.92%E -5.54%K -10.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.23%EV -9.45%E -2.91%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.61%EV -12.72%E -4.54%K -7.07%G +0.000%13.0%2026-05-24 08:50
GTbets🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.47%EV -4.55%E -1.95%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.11%EV -9.73%E -3.00%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -3.37%E -1.09%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-24 08:30
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -7.82%E -3.48%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -10.85%E -3.39%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.49%E -2.16%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-24 08:29
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.43%EV -9.87%E -4.49%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.80%EV -10.85%E -3.39%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -12.72%E -4.54%K -7.07%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-24 08:49
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -9.87%E -4.49%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -12.24%E -3.89%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.81%EV -4.93%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-24 08:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -9.87%E -4.49%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -13.63%E -4.40%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -9.60%E -3.31%K -5.05%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-24 08:40
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -9.87%E -4.49%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -13.63%E -4.40%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -9.60%E -3.31%K -5.05%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-24 08:39
Unibet (NL)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -3.73%E -1.59%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -15.02%E -4.93%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -4.93%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-24 08:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -3.73%E -1.59%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -15.02%E -4.93%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -4.93%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-24 08:49
Unibet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -3.73%E -1.59%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -15.02%E -4.93%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -4.93%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-24 08:49
TABtouch🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -3.73%E -1.59%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -15.02%E -4.93%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -4.93%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-24 08:50
Grosvenor🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -3.73%E -1.59%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -15.02%E -4.93%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -4.93%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-24 08:50
betPARX🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -3.73%E -1.59%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -15.02%E -4.93%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -4.93%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-24 08:50
LeoVegas🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.36%EV -4.55%E -1.95%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -15.02%E -4.93%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.49%E -2.16%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-24 08:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.66%EV -13.97%E -6.65%K -12.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.68%EV -15.02%E -4.93%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.66%EV -8.04%E -2.73%K -4.13%G +0.000%14.3%2026-05-24 08:40
BetRivers🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -5.77%E -2.51%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -16.42%E -5.47%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -3.37%E -1.09%K -1.60%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-24 08:46
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.27%EV -4.96%E -2.14%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.37%EV -16.42%E -5.47%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.37%EV -6.49%E -2.16%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-24 08:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.59%EV -13.97%E -6.65%K -12.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.41%EV -16.42%E -5.47%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.00%EV -14.28%E -5.19%K -8.16%G +0.000%17.3%2026-05-24 08:49
LiveScore Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.28%EV -6.59%E -2.89%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.36%EV -17.81%E -6.04%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.36%EV -8.04%E -2.73%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-24 08:49
Virgin Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.28%EV -6.59%E -2.89%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.36%EV -17.81%E -6.04%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.36%EV -8.04%E -2.73%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-24 08:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi2.38I 42.02%NM 42.02%3.70I 27.03%NM 27.03%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.96%0.0%2026-05-24 08:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.40I 41.67%NM 41.49%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.86%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.65%0.4%2026-05-24 08:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 41.49%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.86%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.65%0.4%2026-05-24 08:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 41.49%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.86%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.65%0.4%2026-05-24 08:50
Matchbook2.36I 42.37%NM 42.12%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.06%0.6%2026-05-24 08:50