Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Henan FC v Liaoning Tieren FC

Início: 2026-05-01 11:00 UTC

Final: Henan FC 4–0 Liaoning Tieren FC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

41 casas de apostas (15 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Henan FC (Local)

Previsão 48.63%2.06odd justa
EV -4.20%
Vantagem -2.13%
Kelly -4.33%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.97

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
46.72%48.59%48.64%50.25%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.801.901.901.9755.56%52.71%52.63%50.76%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Liaoning Tieren FC (Visitante)

Previsão 25.00%4.00odd justa
EV -3.01%
Vantagem -0.776%
Kelly -1.05%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.88

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
24.20%25.01%24.95%26.24%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.403.693.703.8829.41%27.13%27.03%25.77%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 26.37%3.79odd justa
EV -4.26%
Vantagem -1.17%
Kelly -1.62%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.63

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
25.55%26.40%26.41%27.72%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.103.473.503.6332.26%28.79%28.57%27.55%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Henan FC (Local): 48.63%; Liaoning Tieren FC (Visitante): 25.00%; Empate: 26.37%. Para Liaoning Tieren FC (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 4.00. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 3.88, com valor esperado de -3.01%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (41 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Pinnacle🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.77%EV -4.20%E -2.13%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.76%EV -3.01%E -0.776%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.47%EV -4.26%E -1.17%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-01 07:54
1xBet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.70%EV -4.69%E -2.39%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.79%EV -3.76%E -0.977%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.51%EV -5.05%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-01 07:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.36%EV -4.69%E -2.39%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.94%EV -5.01%E -1.32%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.70%EV -6.37%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-01 07:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.36%EV -4.69%E -2.39%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.94%EV -5.01%E -1.32%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.70%EV -6.37%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-01 07:54
BetUS🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.36%EV -4.69%E -2.39%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.94%EV -5.01%E -1.32%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.70%EV -6.37%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-01 07:55
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -5.17%E -2.65%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -7.51%E -2.03%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -5.05%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-01 00:00
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.17%E -2.65%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -10.01%E -2.78%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.05%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-01 03:19
William Hill🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -5.17%E -2.65%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -10.01%E -2.78%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -12.97%E -3.93%K -5.64%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-30 23:59
888sport🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -5.17%E -2.65%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -10.01%E -2.78%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -12.97%E -3.93%K -5.64%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-01 00:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -5.17%E -2.65%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -10.01%E -2.78%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -12.97%E -3.93%K -5.64%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-30 23:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -5.17%E -2.65%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -10.01%E -2.78%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -12.97%E -3.93%K -5.64%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-30 23:59
Bovada🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.58%EV -6.15%E -3.18%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -6.26%E -1.67%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.41%EV -6.37%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-01 03:16
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.86%EV -7.12%E -3.73%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -7.51%E -2.03%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -5.05%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-01 03:19
Unibet (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.66%EV -7.12%E -3.73%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -6.26%E -1.67%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-01 03:19
Neds🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.72%EV -7.12%E -3.73%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.24%EV -15.01%E -4.41%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -12.97%E -3.93%K -5.64%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-30 23:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.72%EV -7.12%E -3.73%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.24%EV -15.01%E -4.41%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -12.97%E -3.93%K -5.64%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-30 23:59
SportsBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.32%EV -7.61%E -4.00%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -5.01%E -1.32%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -5.05%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-01 03:19
Marathon Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.76%EV -7.61%E -4.00%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 24.77%EV -6.51%E -1.74%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-01 07:55
NordicBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.63%EV -7.61%E -4.00%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -7.51%E -2.03%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-01 03:19
Betsson🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.63%EV -7.61%E -4.00%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -7.51%E -2.03%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-01 03:19
Tipico (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.57%EV -7.61%E -4.00%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -5.01%E -1.32%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -10.33%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-01 07:55
betfred_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -7.61%E -4.00%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -10.01%E -2.78%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-01 03:18
Codere (IT)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.28%EV -7.61%E -4.00%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.13%EV -8.76%E -2.40%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -9.01%E -2.61%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-01 07:55
Everygame🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.92%EV -7.61%E -4.00%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -10.01%E -2.78%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -10.33%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-01 03:19
Winamax (DE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.56%EV -8.58%E -4.56%K -9.75%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.72%EV -11.26%E -3.17%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.72%EV -6.37%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-01 03:20
BetRivers🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.19%EV -9.06%E -4.85%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -6.26%E -1.67%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-30 23:59
Unibet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.19%EV -9.06%E -4.85%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -6.26%E -1.67%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-30 23:59
Unibet (SE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.19%EV -9.06%E -4.85%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -6.26%E -1.67%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-01 00:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.19%EV -9.06%E -4.85%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -6.26%E -1.67%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-30 23:59
LeoVegas🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.19%EV -9.06%E -4.85%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -6.26%E -1.67%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-30 23:59
TABtouch🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.19%EV -9.06%E -4.85%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -6.26%E -1.67%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-30 23:59
Grosvenor🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.19%EV -9.06%E -4.85%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -6.26%E -1.67%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-30 23:59
betPARX🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.19%EV -9.06%E -4.85%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -6.26%E -1.67%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-30 23:59
Bet Victor🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.03%EV -9.06%E -4.85%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.78%EV -7.51%E -2.03%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-01 07:53
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.46%EV -10.04%E -5.43%K -11.81%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -6.26%E -1.67%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.14%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-30 23:59
Paddy Power🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.30%EV -10.04%E -5.43%K -11.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%EV -7.51%E -2.03%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-01 07:54
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -11.01%E -6.02%K -13.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -5.01%E -1.32%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -5.05%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-01 03:19
LiveScore Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.35%EV -11.50%E -6.32%K -14.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.61%EV -8.76%E -2.40%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.04%EV -9.01%E -2.61%K -3.68%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-30 23:59
Virgin Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.35%EV -11.50%E -6.32%K -14.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.61%EV -8.76%E -2.40%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.04%EV -9.01%E -2.61%K -3.68%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-30 23:59
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 48.30%EV -11.50%E -6.32%K -14.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -15.01%E -4.41%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -10.33%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-01 03:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 47.73%EV -12.47%E -6.93%K -15.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.55%EV -12.51%E -3.57%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.72%EV -18.24%E -5.88%K -8.69%G +0.000%16.4%2026-05-01 03:20
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook2.02I 49.50%NM 49.05%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.17%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.78%0.9%2026-05-01 07:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.02I 49.50%NM 48.76%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.62%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.62%1.5%2026-05-01 07:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.02I 49.50%NM 48.76%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.62%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.62%1.5%2026-05-01 07:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.02I 49.50%NM 48.76%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.62%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.62%1.5%2026-05-01 07:54
Kalshi1.96I 51.02%NM 49.51%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.26%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.23%3.0%2026-05-01 07:54