Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dalian Yingbo v Qingdao Hainiu FC

Kickoff: 2026-09-05 11:35 UTC

Final: Dalian Yingbo 2–1 Qingdao Hainiu FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

47 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dalian Yingbo (Local)

Prediction 64.66%1.55fair odd
EV -3.01%
Edge -2.01%
Kelly -6.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.17%64.57%64.75%66.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.441.441.5073.53%69.62%69.44%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Qingdao Hainiu FC (Visit)

Prediction 14.99%6.67fair odd
EV +1.21%
Edge +0.179%
Kelly +0.210%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 6.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.84%15.11%15.02%17.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.006.006.006.7520.00%16.67%16.67%14.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.35%4.91fair odd
EV -2.13%
Edge -0.442%
Kelly -0.558%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.08%20.32%20.23%22.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.474.404.8125.00%22.37%22.73%20.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dalian Yingbo (Local): 64.66%; Qingdao Hainiu FC (Visit): 14.99%; Draw: 20.35%. For Qingdao Hainiu FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.67. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.21%.

Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -6.89%E -4.79%K -15.66%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.91%EV +1.21%E +0.179%K +0.210%G +0.003%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -8.44%E -1.87%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-02 15:20
Pinnacle🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.65%EV -6.24%E -4.31%K -13.88%G +0.000%6.54I 15.29%NM 14.56%EV -1.94%E -0.297%K -0.351%G +0.000%4.81I 20.79%NM 19.79%EV -2.13%E -0.442%K -0.558%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-04 11:50
DraftKings🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.29%EV -6.24%E -4.31%K -13.88%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.57%EV -2.54%E -0.391%K -0.462%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.14%EV -4.37%E -0.929%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-04 11:39
SportsBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.20%EV -8.83%E -6.26%K -21.54%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -2.54%E -0.391%K -0.462%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -2.33%E -0.486%K -0.613%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-31 11:58
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.22%EV -9.48%E -6.77%K -23.69%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV -2.54%E -0.391%K -0.462%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -3.35%E -0.705%K -0.893%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-04 10:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.19%EV -8.18%E -5.76%K -19.49%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.24%EV -2.54%E -0.391%K -0.462%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.57%EV -8.44%E -1.87%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-31 12:00
Bet Right🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.35%EV -8.83%E -6.26%K -21.54%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -2.54%E -0.391%K -0.462%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -8.44%E -1.87%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-31 12:00
betfred_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -9.48%E -6.77%K -23.69%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -2.54%E -0.391%K -0.462%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -8.44%E -1.87%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-02 15:19
FanDuel🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 66.84%EV -11.42%E -8.33%K -30.86%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.09%EV -2.54%E -0.391%K -0.462%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.08%EV -2.33%E -0.486%K -0.613%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-03 11:37
betano_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.21%EV -9.48%E -6.77%K -23.69%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -2.54%E -0.391%K -0.462%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -10.47%E -2.38%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-01 16:10
Bet Victor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.21%EV -9.48%E -6.77%K -23.69%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -2.54%E -0.391%K -0.462%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -10.47%E -2.38%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-01 16:20
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.16%EV -12.06%E -8.87%K -33.51%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -2.54%E -0.391%K -0.462%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -8.44%E -1.87%K -2.41%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-02 11:48
LowVig.ag🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.30%EV -6.89%E -4.79%K -15.66%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.69%EV -4.04%E -0.631%K -0.748%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.01%EV -4.37%E -0.929%K -1.18%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-04 13:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.30%EV -6.89%E -4.79%K -15.66%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.69%EV -4.04%E -0.631%K -0.748%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.01%EV -4.37%E -0.929%K -1.18%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-04 13:55
BetUS🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.30%EV -6.89%E -4.79%K -15.66%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.69%EV -4.04%E -0.631%K -0.748%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.01%EV -4.37%E -0.929%K -1.18%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-04 14:00
1xBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.84%EV -4.95%E -3.37%K -10.54%G +0.000%6.33I 15.80%NM 15.06%EV -5.09%E -0.804%K -0.955%G +0.000%4.74I 21.10%NM 20.11%EV -3.55%E -0.749%K -0.950%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-04 11:45
GTbets🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.70%EV -5.60%E -3.83%K -12.17%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.11%EV -6.29%E -1.01%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.68I 21.37%NM 20.18%EV -4.77%E -1.02%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-31 21:44
Bovada🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -7.54%E -5.27%K -17.53%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -6.29%E -1.01%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -6.40%E -1.39%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-04 11:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.63%EV -9.48%E -6.77%K -23.69%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.82%EV -7.04%E -1.14%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.55%EV -4.37%E -0.929%K -1.18%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-03 15:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.79%EV -7.54%E -5.27%K -17.53%G +0.000%6.15I 16.26%NM 15.07%EV -7.79%E -1.27%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -6.40%E -1.39%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-04 11:39
Betsson🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.13%EV -7.54%E -5.27%K -17.53%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.03%EV -8.54%E -1.40%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.84%EV -10.47%E -2.38%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-01 10:50
NordicBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.13%EV -7.54%E -5.27%K -17.53%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.03%EV -8.54%E -1.40%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.84%EV -10.47%E -2.38%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-01 10:49
Betway🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.80%EV -6.89%E -4.79%K -15.66%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -10.04%E -1.67%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.65%EV -3.35%E -0.705%K -0.893%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 07:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.23%EV -6.24%E -4.31%K -13.88%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.52%EV -10.04%E -1.67%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV -6.40%E -1.39%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-02 11:40
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.81%EV -6.89%E -4.79%K -15.66%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -10.04%E -1.67%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -10.47%E -2.38%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-04 11:39
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.81%EV -6.89%E -4.79%K -15.66%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -10.04%E -1.67%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -10.47%E -2.38%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-04 11:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.81%EV -6.89%E -4.79%K -15.66%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -10.04%E -1.67%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -10.47%E -2.38%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-04 11:39
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.81%EV -6.89%E -4.79%K -15.66%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -10.04%E -1.67%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -10.47%E -2.38%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-04 11:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -6.89%E -4.79%K -15.66%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -10.04%E -1.67%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -14.54%E -3.46%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-04 04:45
Neds🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -6.89%E -4.79%K -15.66%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -10.04%E -1.67%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -14.54%E -3.46%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-04 04:45
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.34%EV -6.24%E -4.31%K -13.88%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.06%EV -10.04%E -1.67%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.60%EV -18.61%E -4.65%K -6.20%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-04 11:40
Codere (IT)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.49%EV -8.18%E -5.76%K -19.49%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.54%EV -13.04%E -2.25%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.97%EV -12.50%E -2.91%K -3.79%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-01 10:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.82%EV -9.48%E -6.77%K -23.69%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.40%EV -13.04%E -2.25%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.78%EV -12.50%E -2.91%K -3.79%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-03 11:35
LeoVegas🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.68%EV -6.89%E -4.79%K -15.66%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -13.79%E -2.40%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -8.44%E -1.87%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-03 18:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.73%EV -8.18%E -5.76%K -19.49%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.16%EV -16.04%E -2.86%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.11%EV -8.44%E -1.87%K -2.41%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-02 11:40
Unibet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.97%EV -3.01%E -2.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -17.54%E -3.19%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -10.47%E -2.38%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-31 12:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.97%EV -3.01%E -2.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -17.54%E -3.19%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -10.47%E -2.38%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-31 12:49
Unibet (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.97%EV -3.01%E -2.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -17.54%E -3.19%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -10.47%E -2.38%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-31 12:49
TABtouch🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.97%EV -3.01%E -2.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -17.54%E -3.19%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -10.47%E -2.38%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-31 12:50
Grosvenor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.97%EV -3.01%E -2.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -17.54%E -3.19%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -10.47%E -2.38%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-31 12:50
betPARX🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.97%EV -3.01%E -2.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -17.54%E -3.19%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -10.47%E -2.38%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-31 12:49
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.38%EV -9.48%E -6.77%K -23.69%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.13%EV -17.54%E -3.19%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.49%EV -11.89%E -2.75%K -3.57%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-03 14:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.39%EV -9.48%E -6.77%K -23.69%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.44%EV -19.03%E -3.52%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.17%EV -10.47%E -2.38%K -3.08%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-02 11:40
BetRivers🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.40%EV -4.95%E -3.37%K -10.54%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.36%EV -22.03%E -4.24%K -5.25%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.24%EV -13.52%E -3.18%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-31 12:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.53%EV -6.89%E -4.79%K -15.66%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.37%EV -23.53%E -4.61%K -5.74%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.10%EV -14.54%E -3.46%K -4.54%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-31 12:49
Virgin Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 61.17%EV -7.54%E -5.27%K -17.53%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.49%EV -25.03%E -5.01%K -6.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.34%EV -16.57%E -4.04%K -5.35%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-03 11:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 61.17%EV -7.54%E -5.27%K -17.53%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.49%EV -25.03%E -5.01%K -6.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.34%EV -16.57%E -4.04%K -5.35%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-03 11:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37%7.14I 14.01%NM 13.85%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.78%1.1%2026-09-04 11:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.46I 68.49%NM 66.60%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.14%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.26%2.8%2026-09-04 14:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.46I 68.49%NM 66.60%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.14%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.26%2.8%2026-09-04 14:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.46I 68.49%NM 66.60%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.14%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.26%2.8%2026-09-04 14:05
Matchbook1.46I 68.49%NM 66.60%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.14%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.26%2.8%2026-09-04 14:35