Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Dalian Yingbo v Qingdao Hainiu FC

Inicio: 2026-09-05 11:35 UTC

Final: Dalian Yingbo 2–1 Qingdao Hainiu FC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

47 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Dalian Yingbo (Local)

Predicción 64.66%1.55momio equitativo
EV -3.01%
Ventaja -2.01%
Kelly -6.02%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
61.17%64.57%64.75%66.84%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.361.441.441.5073.53%69.62%69.44%66.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Qingdao Hainiu FC (Visitante)

Predicción 14.99%6.67momio equitativo
EV +1.21%
Ventaja +0.179%
Kelly +0.210%
Crecimiento +0.003%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
13.84%15.11%15.02%17.49%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.006.006.006.7520.00%16.67%16.67%14.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 20.35%4.91momio equitativo
EV -2.13%
Ventaja -0.442%
Kelly -0.558%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.81

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.08%20.32%20.23%22.60%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.004.474.404.8125.00%22.37%22.73%20.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Dalian Yingbo (Local): 64.66%; Qingdao Hainiu FC (Visitante): 14.99%; Empate: 20.35%. Para Qingdao Hainiu FC (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 6.67. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 6.75, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.21%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (47 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -6.89%E -4.79%K -15.66%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.91%EV +1.21%E +0.179%K +0.210%G +0.003%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -8.44%E -1.87%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-02 15:20
Pinnacle🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.65%EV -6.24%E -4.31%K -13.88%G +0.000%6.54I 15.29%NM 14.56%EV -1.94%E -0.297%K -0.351%G +0.000%4.81I 20.79%NM 19.79%EV -2.13%E -0.442%K -0.558%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-04 11:50
DraftKings🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.29%EV -6.24%E -4.31%K -13.88%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.57%EV -2.54%E -0.391%K -0.462%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.14%EV -4.37%E -0.929%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-04 11:39
SportsBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.20%EV -8.83%E -6.26%K -21.54%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -2.54%E -0.391%K -0.462%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -2.33%E -0.486%K -0.613%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-31 11:58
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.22%EV -9.48%E -6.77%K -23.69%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV -2.54%E -0.391%K -0.462%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -3.35%E -0.705%K -0.893%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-04 10:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.19%EV -8.18%E -5.76%K -19.49%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.24%EV -2.54%E -0.391%K -0.462%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.57%EV -8.44%E -1.87%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-31 12:00
Bet Right🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.35%EV -8.83%E -6.26%K -21.54%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -2.54%E -0.391%K -0.462%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -8.44%E -1.87%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-31 12:00
betfred_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -9.48%E -6.77%K -23.69%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -2.54%E -0.391%K -0.462%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -8.44%E -1.87%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-02 15:19
FanDuel🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 66.84%EV -11.42%E -8.33%K -30.86%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.09%EV -2.54%E -0.391%K -0.462%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.08%EV -2.33%E -0.486%K -0.613%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-03 11:37
betano_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.21%EV -9.48%E -6.77%K -23.69%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -2.54%E -0.391%K -0.462%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -10.47%E -2.38%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-01 16:10
Bet Victor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.21%EV -9.48%E -6.77%K -23.69%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -2.54%E -0.391%K -0.462%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -10.47%E -2.38%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-01 16:20
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.16%EV -12.06%E -8.87%K -33.51%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -2.54%E -0.391%K -0.462%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -8.44%E -1.87%K -2.41%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-02 11:48
LowVig.ag🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.30%EV -6.89%E -4.79%K -15.66%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.69%EV -4.04%E -0.631%K -0.748%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.01%EV -4.37%E -0.929%K -1.18%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-04 13:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.30%EV -6.89%E -4.79%K -15.66%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.69%EV -4.04%E -0.631%K -0.748%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.01%EV -4.37%E -0.929%K -1.18%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-04 13:55
BetUS🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.30%EV -6.89%E -4.79%K -15.66%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.69%EV -4.04%E -0.631%K -0.748%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.01%EV -4.37%E -0.929%K -1.18%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-04 14:00
1xBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.84%EV -4.95%E -3.37%K -10.54%G +0.000%6.33I 15.80%NM 15.06%EV -5.09%E -0.804%K -0.955%G +0.000%4.74I 21.10%NM 20.11%EV -3.55%E -0.749%K -0.950%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-04 11:45
GTbets🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.70%EV -5.60%E -3.83%K -12.17%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.11%EV -6.29%E -1.01%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.68I 21.37%NM 20.18%EV -4.77%E -1.02%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-31 21:44
Bovada🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -7.54%E -5.27%K -17.53%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -6.29%E -1.01%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -6.40%E -1.39%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-04 11:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.63%EV -9.48%E -6.77%K -23.69%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.82%EV -7.04%E -1.14%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.55%EV -4.37%E -0.929%K -1.18%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-03 15:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.79%EV -7.54%E -5.27%K -17.53%G +0.000%6.15I 16.26%NM 15.07%EV -7.79%E -1.27%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -6.40%E -1.39%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-04 11:39
Betsson🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.13%EV -7.54%E -5.27%K -17.53%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.03%EV -8.54%E -1.40%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.84%EV -10.47%E -2.38%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-01 10:50
NordicBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.13%EV -7.54%E -5.27%K -17.53%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.03%EV -8.54%E -1.40%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.84%EV -10.47%E -2.38%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-01 10:49
Betway🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.80%EV -6.89%E -4.79%K -15.66%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -10.04%E -1.67%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.65%EV -3.35%E -0.705%K -0.893%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 07:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.23%EV -6.24%E -4.31%K -13.88%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.52%EV -10.04%E -1.67%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV -6.40%E -1.39%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-02 11:40
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.81%EV -6.89%E -4.79%K -15.66%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -10.04%E -1.67%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -10.47%E -2.38%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-04 11:39
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.81%EV -6.89%E -4.79%K -15.66%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -10.04%E -1.67%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -10.47%E -2.38%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-04 11:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.81%EV -6.89%E -4.79%K -15.66%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -10.04%E -1.67%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -10.47%E -2.38%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-04 11:39
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.81%EV -6.89%E -4.79%K -15.66%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -10.04%E -1.67%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -10.47%E -2.38%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-04 11:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -6.89%E -4.79%K -15.66%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -10.04%E -1.67%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -14.54%E -3.46%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-04 04:45
Neds🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -6.89%E -4.79%K -15.66%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -10.04%E -1.67%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -14.54%E -3.46%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-04 04:45
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.34%EV -6.24%E -4.31%K -13.88%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.06%EV -10.04%E -1.67%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.60%EV -18.61%E -4.65%K -6.20%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-04 11:40
Codere (IT)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.49%EV -8.18%E -5.76%K -19.49%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.54%EV -13.04%E -2.25%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.97%EV -12.50%E -2.91%K -3.79%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-01 10:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.82%EV -9.48%E -6.77%K -23.69%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.40%EV -13.04%E -2.25%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.78%EV -12.50%E -2.91%K -3.79%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-03 11:35
LeoVegas🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.68%EV -6.89%E -4.79%K -15.66%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -13.79%E -2.40%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -8.44%E -1.87%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-03 18:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.73%EV -8.18%E -5.76%K -19.49%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.16%EV -16.04%E -2.86%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.11%EV -8.44%E -1.87%K -2.41%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-02 11:40
Unibet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.97%EV -3.01%E -2.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -17.54%E -3.19%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -10.47%E -2.38%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-31 12:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.97%EV -3.01%E -2.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -17.54%E -3.19%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -10.47%E -2.38%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-31 12:49
Unibet (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.97%EV -3.01%E -2.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -17.54%E -3.19%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -10.47%E -2.38%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-31 12:49
TABtouch🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.97%EV -3.01%E -2.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -17.54%E -3.19%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -10.47%E -2.38%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-31 12:50
Grosvenor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.97%EV -3.01%E -2.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -17.54%E -3.19%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -10.47%E -2.38%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-31 12:50
betPARX🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.97%EV -3.01%E -2.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -17.54%E -3.19%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -10.47%E -2.38%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-31 12:49
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.38%EV -9.48%E -6.77%K -23.69%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.13%EV -17.54%E -3.19%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.49%EV -11.89%E -2.75%K -3.57%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-03 14:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.39%EV -9.48%E -6.77%K -23.69%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.44%EV -19.03%E -3.52%K -4.33%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.17%EV -10.47%E -2.38%K -3.08%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-02 11:40
BetRivers🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.40%EV -4.95%E -3.37%K -10.54%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.36%EV -22.03%E -4.24%K -5.25%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.24%EV -13.52%E -3.18%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-31 12:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.53%EV -6.89%E -4.79%K -15.66%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.37%EV -23.53%E -4.61%K -5.74%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.10%EV -14.54%E -3.46%K -4.54%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-31 12:49
Virgin Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 61.17%EV -7.54%E -5.27%K -17.53%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.49%EV -25.03%E -5.01%K -6.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.34%EV -16.57%E -4.04%K -5.35%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-03 11:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 61.17%EV -7.54%E -5.27%K -17.53%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.49%EV -25.03%E -5.01%K -6.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.34%EV -16.57%E -4.04%K -5.35%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-03 11:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37%7.14I 14.01%NM 13.85%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.78%1.1%2026-09-04 11:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 66.60%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.14%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.26%2.8%2026-09-04 14:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 66.60%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.14%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.26%2.8%2026-09-04 14:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 66.60%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.14%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.26%2.8%2026-09-04 14:05
Matchbook◎1.46I 68.49%NM 66.60%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.14%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.26%2.8%2026-09-04 14:35