Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Chengdu Rongcheng FC v Wuhan Three Towns

Inicio: 2026-08-01 12:00 UTC

Final: Chengdu Rongcheng FC 1–1 Wuhan Three Towns

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

48 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Chengdu Rongcheng FC (Local)

Predicción 67.51%1.48momio equitativo
EV -3.46%
Ventaja -2.42%
Kelly -8.04%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.43

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
64.61%67.38%67.65%70.38%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.281.361.371.4378.13%73.27%73.26%69.93%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Wuhan Three Towns (Visitante)

Predicción 13.70%7.30momio equitativo
EV +2.75%
Ventaja +0.367%
Kelly +0.423%
Crecimiento +0.012%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
12.20%13.93%13.48%16.29%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.506.716.507.5018.18%14.91%15.38%13.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 18.79%5.32momio equitativo
EV -0.428%
Ventaja -0.081%
Kelly -0.099%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.23%18.68%18.87%20.63%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.404.954.955.3022.73%20.18%20.20%18.87%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (Local): 67.51%; Wuhan Three Towns (Visitante): 13.70%; Empate: 18.79%. Para Wuhan Three Towns (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 7.30. 9 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 7.50, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.75%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (48 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (NL)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.17%EV -10.88%E -8.24%K -34.01%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV +2.75%E +0.367%K +0.423%G +0.012%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.48%EV -0.428%E -0.081%K -0.099%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-01 11:49
Unibet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.17%EV -10.88%E -8.24%K -34.01%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV +2.75%E +0.367%K +0.423%G +0.012%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.48%EV -0.428%E -0.081%K -0.099%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-01 11:49
TABtouch🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.17%EV -10.88%E -8.24%K -34.01%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV +2.75%E +0.367%K +0.423%G +0.012%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.48%EV -0.428%E -0.081%K -0.099%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-01 11:50
BetRivers🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.17%EV -10.88%E -8.24%K -34.01%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV +2.75%E +0.367%K +0.423%G +0.012%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.48%EV -0.428%E -0.081%K -0.099%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-01 11:50
Grosvenor🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.17%EV -10.88%E -8.24%K -34.01%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV +2.75%E +0.367%K +0.423%G +0.012%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.48%EV -0.428%E -0.081%K -0.099%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-01 11:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.17%EV -10.88%E -8.24%K -34.01%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV +2.75%E +0.367%K +0.423%G +0.012%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.48%EV -0.428%E -0.081%K -0.099%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-01 11:50
betPARX🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.17%EV -10.88%E -8.24%K -34.01%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV +2.75%E +0.367%K +0.423%G +0.012%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.48%EV -0.428%E -0.081%K -0.099%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-01 11:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.38%EV -12.23%E -9.41%K -40.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV +2.75%E +0.367%K +0.423%G +0.012%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.43%EV -1.37%E -0.260%K -0.322%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-01 11:50
Pinnacle🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.00%EV -3.46%E -2.42%K -8.04%G +0.000%7.35I 13.61%NM 13.04%EV +0.695%E +0.095%K +0.110%G +0.001%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.96%EV -9.82%E -2.05%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-01 11:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.70%EV -4.13%E -2.91%K -9.84%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.26%EV -0.675%E -0.093%K -0.108%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 19.04%EV -5.12%E -1.01%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-01 11:54
LowVig.ag🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.70%EV -4.13%E -2.91%K -9.84%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.26%EV -0.675%E -0.093%K -0.108%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 19.04%EV -5.12%E -1.01%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-01 11:54
BetUS🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.70%EV -4.13%E -2.91%K -9.84%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.26%EV -0.675%E -0.093%K -0.108%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 19.04%EV -5.12%E -1.01%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-01 11:54
Coolbet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.97%EV -7.51%E -5.48%K -20.29%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.03%EV -0.675%E -0.093%K -0.108%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.00%EV -1.37%E -0.260%K -0.322%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-01 11:39
Marathon Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.07%EV -8.18%E -6.02%K -22.73%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.04%EV -2.73%E -0.384%K -0.447%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.89%EV -7.94%E -1.62%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-01 11:55
DraftKings🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.15%EV -4.81%E -3.41%K -11.72%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.53%EV -4.10%E -0.586%K -0.683%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.32%EV -7.94%E -1.62%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-01 11:55
Betway🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.88%EV -6.83%E -4.95%K -17.98%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -4.10%E -0.586%K -0.683%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -6.06%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-01 11:55
SportsBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.62%EV -6.83%E -4.95%K -17.98%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV -4.10%E -0.586%K -0.683%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.04%EV -7.94%E -1.62%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-01 11:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -8.86%E -6.56%K -25.31%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -4.10%E -0.586%K -0.683%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -1.37%E -0.260%K -0.322%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-01 11:40
FanDuel🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.78%EV -7.51%E -5.48%K -20.29%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV -4.10%E -0.586%K -0.683%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.95%EV -7.94%E -1.62%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-01 11:15
Tipico (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.10%EV -8.86%E -6.56%K -25.31%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -4.10%E -0.586%K -0.683%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -7.94%E -1.62%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-01 10:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -8.18%E -6.02%K -22.73%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -4.10%E -0.586%K -0.683%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -13.58%E -2.95%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-01 11:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 69.98%EV -13.58%E -10.61%K -48.51%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.80%EV -4.10%E -0.586%K -0.683%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.23%EV -2.31%E -0.444%K -0.549%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-01 11:49
LiveScore Bet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 69.98%EV -13.58%E -10.61%K -48.51%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.80%EV -4.10%E -0.586%K -0.683%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.23%EV -2.31%E -0.444%K -0.549%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-01 11:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -5.48%E -3.92%K -13.71%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -10.95%E -1.68%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -6.06%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-01 11:40
betfred_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.51%EV -8.18%E -6.02%K -22.73%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -10.95%E -1.68%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -6.06%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-01 11:39
betano_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.51%EV -8.18%E -6.02%K -22.73%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -10.95%E -1.68%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -6.06%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-01 11:54
Bet Right🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.67%EV -8.86%E -6.56%K -25.31%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.06%EV -10.95%E -1.68%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -6.06%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-01 11:40
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.00%EV -8.18%E -6.02%K -22.73%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.02%EV -10.95%E -1.68%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.98%EV -9.82%E -2.05%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-01 11:55
William Hill🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.00%EV -8.18%E -6.02%K -22.73%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.02%EV -10.95%E -1.68%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.98%EV -9.82%E -2.05%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-01 11:54
888sport (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.00%EV -8.18%E -6.02%K -22.73%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.02%EV -10.95%E -1.68%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.98%EV -9.82%E -2.05%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-01 11:54
Everygame🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.86%EV -8.18%E -6.02%K -22.73%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -10.95%E -1.68%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.36%EV -17.34%E -3.94%K -5.10%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-01 11:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.95%EV -10.21%E -7.68%K -30.93%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.70%EV -10.95%E -1.68%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.36%EV -13.58%E -2.95%K -3.77%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-01 11:45
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.66%EV -10.21%E -7.68%K -30.93%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.64%EV -10.95%E -1.68%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.70%EV -15.46%E -3.43%K -4.42%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-01 11:14
NordicBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 66.60%EV -6.16%E -4.43%K -15.79%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.69%EV -13.69%E -2.17%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.70%EV -7.00%E -1.41%K -1.77%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-01 11:44
Betsson🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 66.60%EV -6.16%E -4.43%K -15.79%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.69%EV -13.69%E -2.17%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.70%EV -7.00%E -1.41%K -1.77%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-01 11:44
LeoVegas🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.24%EV -6.83%E -4.95%K -17.98%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.51%EV -13.69%E -2.17%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.25%EV -10.76%E -2.27%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-01 11:54
GTbets🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -4.13%E -2.91%K -9.84%G +0.000%6.27I 15.95%NM 14.94%EV -14.10%E -2.25%K -2.68%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.11%EV -7.94%E -1.62%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-01 11:50
Bovada🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.08%EV -4.81%E -3.41%K -11.72%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -14.37%E -2.30%K -2.74%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -7.94%E -1.62%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-01 11:53
PlayUp🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.84%EV -5.48%E -3.92%K -13.71%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.52%EV -14.37%E -2.30%K -2.74%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.63%EV -17.34%E -3.94%K -5.10%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-01 11:55
1xBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.15%EV -6.16%E -4.43%K -15.79%G +0.000%6.22I 16.08%NM 15.01%EV -14.79%E -2.38%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.23I 19.12%NM 17.85%EV -1.74%E -0.333%K -0.412%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-01 11:54
Codere (IT)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 66.06%EV -6.16%E -4.43%K -15.79%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.81%EV -15.06%E -2.43%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -9.82%E -2.05%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-01 11:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 66.38%EV -7.51%E -5.48%K -20.29%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.67%EV -15.06%E -2.43%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -9.82%E -2.05%K -2.58%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-01 11:44
Bet Victor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.08%EV -5.48%E -3.92%K -13.71%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -17.80%E -2.97%K -3.56%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -6.06%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-01 11:53
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.61%EV -5.48%E -3.92%K -13.71%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.73%EV -21.22%E -3.69%K -4.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.66%EV -13.58%E -2.95%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-01 11:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.61%EV -5.48%E -3.92%K -13.71%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.73%EV -21.22%E -3.69%K -4.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.66%EV -13.58%E -2.95%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-01 11:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.11%EV -6.83%E -4.95%K -17.98%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.00%EV -21.91%E -3.84%K -4.66%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.89%EV -4.19%E -0.821%K -1.02%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-01 10:59
Winamax (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 65.42%EV -7.51%E -5.48%K -20.29%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.29%EV -24.65%E -4.48%K -5.48%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.29%EV -7.94%E -1.62%K -2.04%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-01 11:00
BoyleSports🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 65.71%EV -10.21%E -7.68%K -30.93%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.89%EV -24.65%E -4.48%K -5.48%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.40%EV -10.76%E -2.27%K -2.87%G +0.000%14.4%2026-08-01 11:14
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.44I 69.44%NM 68.90%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.72%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.37%0.8%2026-08-01 11:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 68.90%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.72%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.37%0.8%2026-08-01 11:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 68.67%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.01%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.31%1.1%2026-08-01 11:55
Matchbook1.42I 70.42%NM 69.63%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.06%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.31%1.1%2026-08-01 11:55
Kalshi1.43I 69.93%NM 68.60%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.76%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.65%1.9%2026-08-01 11:15