The School of Odds

Beijing FC v Liaoning Tieren FC

2026-07-17 11:35 UTC — Super League - China

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Beijing FC (Local)

Prediction 67.58%1.48fair odd
EV -4.03%
Edge -2.84%
Kelly -9.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.44%67.57%67.92%68.63%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.301.361.361.4277%74%74%70%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Liaoning Tieren FC (Visit)

Prediction 14.00%7.14fair odd
EV -3.13%
Edge -0.453%
Kelly -0.529%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.70%14.00%13.98%15.93%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
5.306.466.506.9219%15%15%14%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 18.42%5.43fair odd
EV -1.28%
Edge -0.239%
Kelly -0.294%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.60%18.42%18.10%19.63%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.304.955.005.3623%20%20%19%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets1.42I 70.42%NM 67.47%EV -4.03%E -2.84%K -9.60%G +0.000%6.63I 15.08%NM 14.45%EV -7.19%E -1.08%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.08%EV -2.39%E -0.450%K -0.555%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-11 08:24
1xBet1.40I 71.43%NM 68.33%EV -5.38%E -3.84%K -13.46%G +0.000%6.92I 14.45%NM 13.82%EV -3.13%E -0.453%K -0.529%G +0.000%5.36I 18.66%NM 17.85%EV -1.28%E -0.239%K -0.294%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-11 08:08
NordicBet1.39I 71.94%NM 66.65%EV -6.06%E -4.36%K -15.53%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -9.01%E -1.39%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.10%EV -10.67%E -2.20%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-11 07:54
Betsson1.39I 71.94%NM 66.65%EV -6.06%E -4.36%K -15.53%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -9.01%E -1.39%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.10%EV -10.67%E -2.20%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-11 07:54
Coolbet1.38I 72.46%NM 68.15%EV -6.73%E -4.88%K -17.72%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.93%EV -5.51%E -0.817%K -0.959%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.91%EV -3.31%E -0.630%K -0.778%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-11 08:50
Pinnacle1.38I 72.46%NM 68.11%EV -6.73%E -4.88%K -17.72%G +0.000%6.84I 14.62%NM 13.74%EV -4.25%E -0.622%K -0.728%G +0.000%5.18I 19.31%NM 18.15%EV -4.60%E -0.887%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-11 13:25
Unibet (UK)1.37I 72.99%NM 66.70%EV -7.41%E -5.41%K -20.03%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.06%EV -9.01%E -1.39%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.24%EV -12.52%E -2.63%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-11 07:54
Marathon Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 68.09%EV -8.09%E -5.95%K -22.46%G +0.000%6.65I 15.04%NM 13.93%EV -6.91%E -1.04%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 17.98%EV -5.15%E -1.000%K -1.24%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-11 07:57
betfred_uk1.36I 73.53%NM 67.51%EV -8.09%E -5.95%K -22.46%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -9.01%E -1.39%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -7.91%E -1.58%K -1.98%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-11 08:45
Bet Right1.36I 73.53%NM 67.51%EV -8.09%E -5.95%K -22.46%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -9.01%E -1.39%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -7.91%E -1.58%K -1.98%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-11 08:45
888sport1.36I 73.53%NM 67.00%EV -8.09%E -5.95%K -22.46%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.02%EV -9.01%E -1.39%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.98%EV -11.60%E -2.42%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-11 08:45
William Hill1.36I 73.53%NM 67.00%EV -8.09%E -5.95%K -22.46%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.02%EV -9.01%E -1.39%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.98%EV -11.60%E -2.42%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-11 08:44
Mr Green (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 67.00%EV -8.09%E -5.95%K -22.46%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.02%EV -9.01%E -1.39%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.98%EV -11.60%E -2.42%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-11 08:45
888sport (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 67.00%EV -8.09%E -5.95%K -22.46%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.02%EV -9.01%E -1.39%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.98%EV -11.60%E -2.42%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-11 08:45
LeoVegas1.36I 73.53%NM 66.57%EV -8.09%E -5.95%K -22.46%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.37%EV -11.81%E -1.87%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.06%EV -12.52%E -2.63%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-11 08:54
SportsBet1.35I 74.07%NM 68.63%EV -8.76%E -6.49%K -25.03%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.73%EV -5.51%E -0.817%K -0.959%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.65%EV -3.31%E -0.630%K -0.778%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-11 08:45
FanDuel1.34I 74.63%NM 68.31%EV -9.44%E -7.04%K -27.76%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.08%EV -9.01%E -1.39%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.60%EV -4.23%E -0.813%K -1.01%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-11 08:48
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.33I 75.19%NM 68.00%EV -10.11%E -7.60%K -30.65%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -9.01%E -1.39%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.09%EV -7.91%E -1.58%K -1.98%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-11 08:54
Winamax (DE)1.33I 75.19%NM 65.50%EV -10.11%E -7.60%K -30.65%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.56%EV -21.61%E -3.86%K -4.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.94%EV -15.28%E -3.32%K -4.24%G +0.000%14.8%2026-07-11 08:54
Winamax (FR)1.31I 76.34%NM 64.44%EV -11.46%E -8.75%K -36.98%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 15.93%EV -25.81%E -4.87%K -6.00%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 19.63%EV -20.80%E -4.84%K -6.30%G +0.000%18.5%2026-07-11 08:54
Paddy Power1.30I 76.92%NM 68.49%EV -12.14%E -9.34%K -40.47%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.70%EV -9.01%E -1.39%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -7.91%E -1.58%K -1.98%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-11 08:48
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 68.22%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.84%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.94%3.2%2026-07-11 14:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.42I 70.42%NM 68.22%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.84%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.94%3.2%2026-07-11 14:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.42I 70.42%NM 68.22%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.84%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.94%3.2%2026-07-11 14:24