Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Universidad de Concepción v Cobresal

Kickoff: 2026-04-13 00:00 UTC

Final: Universidad de Concepción 1–0 Cobresal

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

45 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Universidad de Concepción (Local)

Prediction 57.49%1.74fair odd
EV -1.70%
Edge -0.994%
Kelly -2.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.59%57.39%57.46%59.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.611.601.7165.79%62.16%62.50%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cobresal (Visit)

Prediction 18.56%5.39fair odd
EV +1.71%
Edge +0.312%
Kelly +0.382%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 5.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.24%18.55%18.65%19.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.334.874.805.4823.09%20.55%20.83%18.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.95%4.17fair odd
EV -2.27%
Edge -0.556%
Kelly -0.736%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.83%24.05%23.89%25.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.763.754.0830.77%26.62%26.67%24.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Universidad de Concepción (Local): 57.49%; Cobresal (Visit): 18.56%; Draw: 23.95%. For Cobresal (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.39. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.48, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.71%.

Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.93%EV -6.30%E -3.86%K -10.00%G +0.000%5.48I 18.25%NM 17.53%EV +1.71%E +0.312%K +0.382%G +0.007%4.08I 24.51%NM 23.54%EV -2.27%E -0.556%K -0.736%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-12 23:54
GTbets🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.04%EV -7.45%E -4.63%K -12.21%G +0.000%5.42I 18.45%NM 17.24%EV +0.597%E +0.110%K +0.135%G +0.001%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.72%EV -9.45%E -2.50%K -3.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 23:55
Pinnacle🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.50%EV -5.72%E -3.49%K -8.94%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.93%EV -0.702%E -0.131%K -0.161%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 23.57%EV -2.51%E -0.616%K -0.817%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-12 23:55
Bet Victor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.66%EV -8.02%E -5.01%K -13.37%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.88%EV -2.56%E -0.487%K -0.602%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -4.18%E -1.05%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 23:53
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.46%EV -8.60%E -5.41%K -14.57%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV -2.56%E -0.487%K -0.602%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -6.58%E -1.69%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-12 23:54
Unibet (UK)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.61%EV -9.17%E -5.81%K -15.81%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.64%EV -2.56%E -0.487%K -0.602%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -6.58%E -1.69%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-12 23:55
FanDuel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.91%EV -6.87%E -4.24%K -11.09%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.04%EV -3.49%E -0.670%K -0.830%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -6.58%E -1.69%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-12 23:39
Codere (IT)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.49%EV -9.75%E -6.21%K -17.10%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.66%EV -3.49%E -0.670%K -0.830%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.85%EV -7.78%E -2.02%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-12 23:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.45%EV -12.62%E -8.30%K -24.27%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.38%EV -3.49%E -0.670%K -0.830%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.17%EV -6.58%E -1.69%K -2.27%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-12 23:39
Coolbet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.93%EV -1.70%E -0.994%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.57%EV -4.41%E -0.857%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.50%EV -10.17%E -2.71%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-12 19:00
DraftKings🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.39%EV -5.15%E -3.12%K -7.92%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -7.20%E -1.44%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.67%EV -4.18%E -1.05%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-12 23:35
Fanatics🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.68%EV -5.15%E -3.12%K -7.92%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -7.20%E -1.44%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -8.97%E -2.36%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 23:45
BetMGM🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.49%EV -6.87%E -4.24%K -11.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.63%EV -7.20%E -1.44%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -6.58%E -1.69%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-12 23:55
SportsBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.44%EV -8.02%E -5.01%K -13.37%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.38%EV -7.20%E -1.44%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -8.97%E -2.36%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-12 23:39
Everygame🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.71%EV -9.75%E -6.21%K -17.10%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -7.20%E -1.44%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -10.17%E -2.71%K -3.70%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-12 23:35
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.53%EV -9.75%E -6.21%K -17.10%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.06%EV -7.20%E -1.44%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.41%EV -11.37%E -3.07%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-12 23:40
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.11%EV -5.15%E -3.12%K -7.92%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.04%EV -8.13%E -1.64%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV -5.38%E -1.36%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-12 23:34
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.11%EV -5.15%E -3.12%K -7.92%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.04%EV -8.13%E -1.64%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV -5.38%E -1.36%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-12 23:34
Marathon Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.91%EV -6.30%E -3.86%K -10.00%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.93%EV -9.05%E -1.85%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.16%EV -8.02%E -2.09%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-12 23:40
Bovada🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.40%EV -8.02%E -5.01%K -13.37%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -9.05%E -1.85%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.86%EV -7.78%E -2.02%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-12 23:53
Winamax (DE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.54%EV -10.32%E -6.62%K -18.43%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.64%EV -9.05%E -1.85%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -4.18%E -1.05%K -1.39%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-12 23:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.35%EV -9.17%E -5.81%K -15.81%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.49%EV -9.05%E -1.85%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -10.17%E -2.71%K -3.70%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-12 23:55
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.72%EV -9.75%E -6.21%K -17.10%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.55%EV -10.91%E -2.27%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.73%EV -13.77%E -3.82%K -5.29%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-12 23:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.72%EV -9.75%E -6.21%K -17.10%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.55%EV -10.91%E -2.27%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.73%EV -13.77%E -3.82%K -5.29%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-12 23:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.72%EV -9.75%E -6.21%K -17.10%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.55%EV -10.91%E -2.27%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.73%EV -13.77%E -3.82%K -5.29%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-12 23:55
Betway🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.55%EV -7.45%E -4.63%K -12.21%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.17%EV -11.84%E -2.49%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.28%EV -10.17%E -2.71%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-12 23:49
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.52%EV -8.02%E -5.01%K -13.37%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.04%EV -11.84%E -2.49%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -11.37%E -3.07%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-12 23:34
Sky Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.60%EV -9.75%E -6.21%K -17.10%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.71%EV -11.84%E -2.49%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.69%EV -13.77%E -3.82%K -5.29%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-12 23:39
BetOnline.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.44%EV -7.45%E -4.63%K -12.21%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.33%EV -12.77%E -2.72%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.23%EV -10.17%E -2.71%K -3.70%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-12 23:34
LowVig.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.44%EV -7.45%E -4.63%K -12.21%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.33%EV -12.77%E -2.72%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.23%EV -10.17%E -2.71%K -3.70%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-12 23:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.02%EV -12.62%E -8.30%K -24.27%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.77%EV -12.77%E -2.72%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.21%EV -8.97%E -2.36%K -3.21%G +0.000%13.4%2026-04-12 23:54
Unibet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.59%EV -3.42%E -2.04%K -5.04%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%EV -14.62%E -3.18%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.47%EV -13.77%E -3.82%K -5.29%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-12 15:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.59%EV -3.42%E -2.04%K -5.04%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%EV -14.62%E -3.18%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.47%EV -13.77%E -3.82%K -5.29%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-12 15:29
Grosvenor🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.59%EV -3.42%E -2.04%K -5.04%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%EV -14.62%E -3.18%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.47%EV -13.77%E -3.82%K -5.29%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-12 15:29
Unibet (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.59%EV -3.42%E -2.04%K -5.04%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%EV -14.62%E -3.18%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.47%EV -13.77%E -3.82%K -5.29%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-12 15:29
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.59%EV -3.42%E -2.04%K -5.04%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%EV -14.62%E -3.18%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.47%EV -13.77%E -3.82%K -5.29%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-12 15:29
TABtouch🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.59%EV -3.42%E -2.04%K -5.04%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%EV -14.62%E -3.18%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.47%EV -13.77%E -3.82%K -5.29%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-12 15:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.69%EV -4.57%E -2.76%K -6.93%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.74%EV -14.62%E -3.18%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.57%EV -14.96%E -4.22%K -5.87%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-12 15:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.64%EV -9.75%E -6.21%K -17.10%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.33%EV -14.62%E -3.18%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.03%EV -11.37%E -3.07%K -4.21%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-12 23:55
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.64%EV -9.75%E -6.21%K -17.10%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.33%EV -14.62%E -3.18%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.03%EV -11.37%E -3.07%K -4.21%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-12 23:55
Neds🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.64%EV -9.75%E -6.21%K -17.10%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.33%EV -14.62%E -3.18%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.03%EV -11.37%E -3.07%K -4.21%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-12 23:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.64%EV -9.75%E -6.21%K -17.10%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.33%EV -14.62%E -3.18%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.03%EV -11.37%E -3.07%K -4.21%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-12 23:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.75%EV -5.72%E -3.49%K -8.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.95%EV -16.48%E -3.66%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.29%EV -14.96%E -4.22%K -5.87%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-12 15:29
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.58%EV -9.75%E -6.21%K -17.10%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.74%EV -16.48%E -3.66%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.69%EV -10.17%E -2.71%K -3.70%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-12 23:33
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 54.82%EV -12.05%E -7.87%K -22.73%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 19.37%EV -19.63%E -4.53%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 25.81%EV -22.15%E -6.82%K -9.84%G +0.000%19.2%2026-04-12 23:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.69I 59.17%NM 58.70%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.10%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.20%0.8%2026-04-12 23:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.69I 59.17%NM 58.70%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.10%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.20%0.8%2026-04-12 23:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.69I 59.17%NM 58.70%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.10%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.20%0.8%2026-04-12 23:50
Kalshi1.67I 59.88%NM 58.79%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.66%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.55%1.8%2026-04-12 23:45
Smarkets1.68I 59.52%NM 58.14%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.44%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.42%2.4%2026-04-12 23:55