The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Union La Calera v Deportes Concepción

Kickoff: 2026-04-14 00:00 UTC

Final: Union La Calera 1–0 Deportes Concepción

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Union La Calera (Local)

Prediction 42.17%2.37fair odd
EV -3.85%
Edge -1.69%
Kelly -3.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.35%42.33%42.14%45.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.162.152.2850.00%46.33%46.51%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Deportes Concepción (Visit)

Prediction 28.19%3.55fair odd
EV -2.75%
Edge -0.798%
Kelly -1.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.58%28.19%28.15%29.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.193.153.4533.33%31.37%31.75%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.64%3.37fair odd
EV -3.37%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -1.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.24%29.49%29.71%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.703.093.103.2637.04%32.38%32.26%30.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Union La Calera (Local): 42.17%; Deportes Concepción (Visit): 28.19%; Draw: 29.64%. For Deportes Concepción (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.55. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.45, with an expected value of -2.75%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.11%EV -3.85%E -1.69%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.07%EV -3.60%E -1.05%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.82%EV -4.55%E -1.41%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-13 23:50
Pinnacle🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.58%EV -4.69%E -2.08%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.90%EV -2.75%E -0.798%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.52%EV -3.37%E -1.03%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-13 23:50
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.91%EV -5.12%E -2.27%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.15%EV -5.57%E -1.66%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -6.63%E -2.10%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-13 23:35
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -5.12%E -2.27%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -8.39%E -2.58%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -8.11%E -2.62%K -3.86%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-13 23:34
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.16%EV -7.22%E -3.28%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.11%EV -6.98%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.73%EV -7.52%E -2.41%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-13 23:53
Marathon Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.09%EV -7.22%E -3.28%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.23%EV -7.55%E -2.30%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.68%EV -7.52%E -2.41%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-13 23:35
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -7.22%E -3.28%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -6.98%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -8.11%E -2.62%K -3.86%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-13 23:34
BetRivers🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.22%E -3.28%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -5.15%E -1.61%K -2.34%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-13 23:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.22%E -3.28%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -5.15%E -1.61%K -2.34%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-13 23:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.22%E -3.28%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -5.15%E -1.61%K -2.34%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-13 23:50
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.22%E -3.28%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -5.15%E -1.61%K -2.34%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-13 23:49
Grosvenor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.22%E -3.28%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -5.15%E -1.61%K -2.34%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-13 23:50
TABtouch🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.22%E -3.28%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -5.15%E -1.61%K -2.34%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-13 23:50
Betsson🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.68%EV -8.07%E -3.70%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -5.57%E -1.66%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -6.63%E -2.10%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-13 23:45
NordicBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.68%EV -8.07%E -3.70%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -5.57%E -1.66%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -6.63%E -2.10%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-13 23:44
LiveScore Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.55%EV -8.07%E -3.70%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.70%EV -14.03%E -4.60%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.75%EV -6.63%E -2.10%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-13 23:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 41.38%EV -8.91%E -4.13%K -7.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -15.44%E -5.15%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -8.11%E -2.62%K -3.86%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-13 23:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -9.33%E -4.34%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -11.21%E -3.56%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -6.63%E -2.10%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-13 23:35
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -9.33%E -4.34%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -9.80%E -3.06%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.11%E -2.62%K -3.86%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-13 23:35
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -9.33%E -4.34%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -9.80%E -3.06%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.11%E -2.62%K -3.86%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-13 23:35
Everygame🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.07%EV -9.33%E -4.34%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.27%EV -9.80%E -3.06%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.66%EV -9.59%E -3.15%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-13 23:34
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -9.33%E -4.34%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -9.80%E -3.06%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.07%E -3.69%K -5.54%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-13 23:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -9.33%E -4.34%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -9.80%E -3.06%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.07%E -3.69%K -5.54%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-13 23:39
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -9.33%E -4.34%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -9.80%E -3.06%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.07%E -3.69%K -5.54%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-13 23:39
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.33%E -4.34%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -11.07%E -3.69%K -5.54%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-13 23:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.33%E -4.34%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -11.07%E -3.69%K -5.54%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-13 23:35
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.33%E -4.34%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -11.07%E -3.69%K -5.54%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-13 23:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.33%E -4.34%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -11.07%E -3.69%K -5.54%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-13 23:35
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.33%E -4.34%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -11.07%E -3.69%K -5.54%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-13 23:35
LowVig.ag🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.55%EV -9.75%E -4.56%K -8.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -6.98%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -9.59%E -3.15%K -4.68%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-13 04:25
BetOnline.ag🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.55%EV -9.75%E -4.56%K -8.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -6.98%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -9.59%E -3.15%K -4.68%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-13 04:24
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -11.44%E -5.45%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.44%EV -11.07%E -3.69%K -5.54%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-13 23:34
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -11.44%E -5.45%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.44%EV -11.07%E -3.69%K -5.54%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-13 23:35
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.66%EV -13.55%E -6.61%K -12.90%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.67%EV -14.03%E -4.60%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.67%EV -9.59%E -3.15%K -4.68%G +0.000%14.4%2026-04-13 23:35
Tipico (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -15.66%E -7.83%K -15.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -4.16%E -1.22%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -5.15%E -1.61%K -2.34%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-13 23:45
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.45%EV -15.66%E -7.83%K -15.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.59%EV -11.21%E -3.56%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.97%EV -11.07%E -3.69%K -5.54%G +0.000%15.1%2026-04-13 23:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 41.54%EV -15.66%E -7.83%K -15.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.69%EV -15.44%E -5.15%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 30.77%EV -19.97%E -7.40%K -11.75%G +0.000%20.4%2026-04-13 23:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.64%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.26%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.10%1.1%2026-04-13 23:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.64%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.26%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.10%1.1%2026-04-13 23:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.64%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.26%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.10%1.1%2026-04-13 23:55