L’École des cotes

Union La Calera v Deportes Concepción

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-14 00:00 UTC

Score final : Union La Calera 1–0 Deportes Concepción

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

37 opérateurs (14 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Union La Calera (Local)

Prévision 42.17%2.37cote équitable
EV -3.85%
Avantage -1.69%
Kelly -3.01%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.28

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
41.35%42.33%42.14%45.18%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.002.162.152.2850.00%46.33%46.51%43.86%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Deportes Concepción (Visiteur)

Prévision 28.19%3.55cote équitable
EV -2.75%
Avantage -0.798%
Kelly -1.12%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.45

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
26.58%28.19%28.15%29.79%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.003.193.153.4533.33%31.37%31.75%28.99%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 29.64%3.37cote équitable
EV -3.37%
Avantage -1.03%
Kelly -1.49%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.26

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
28.24%29.49%29.71%30.77%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.703.093.103.2637.04%32.38%32.26%30.67%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (37 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
1xBet2.28I 43.86%NM 42.11%EV -3.85%E -1.69%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.07%EV -3.60%E -1.05%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.82%EV -4.55%E -1.41%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-13 23:50
Pinnacle2.26I 44.25%NM 42.58%EV -4.69%E -2.08%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.90%EV -2.75%E -0.798%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.52%EV -3.37%E -1.03%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-13 23:50
DraftKings2.25I 44.44%NM 41.91%EV -5.12%E -2.27%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.15%EV -5.57%E -1.66%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -6.63%E -2.10%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-13 23:35
BetMGM2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -5.12%E -2.27%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -8.39%E -2.58%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -8.11%E -2.62%K -3.86%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-13 23:34
Bet Victor2.20I 45.45%NM 42.16%EV -7.22%E -3.28%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.11%EV -6.98%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.73%EV -7.52%E -2.41%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-13 23:53
Marathon Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.09%EV -7.22%E -3.28%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.23%EV -7.55%E -2.30%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.68%EV -7.52%E -2.41%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-13 23:35
FanDuel2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -7.22%E -3.28%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -6.98%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -8.11%E -2.62%K -3.86%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-13 23:34
BetRivers2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.22%E -3.28%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -5.15%E -1.61%K -2.34%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-13 23:50
LeoVegas (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.22%E -3.28%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -5.15%E -1.61%K -2.34%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-13 23:50
Unibet (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.22%E -3.28%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -5.15%E -1.61%K -2.34%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-13 23:50
Unibet2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.22%E -3.28%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -5.15%E -1.61%K -2.34%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-13 23:49
Grosvenor2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.22%E -3.28%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -5.15%E -1.61%K -2.34%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-13 23:50
TABtouch2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.22%E -3.28%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -5.15%E -1.61%K -2.34%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-13 23:50
Betsson2.18I 45.87%NM 42.68%EV -8.07%E -3.70%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -5.57%E -1.66%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -6.63%E -2.10%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-13 23:45
NordicBet2.18I 45.87%NM 42.68%EV -8.07%E -3.70%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -5.57%E -1.66%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -6.63%E -2.10%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-13 23:44
LiveScore Bet2.18I 45.87%NM 41.55%EV -8.07%E -3.70%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.70%EV -14.03%E -4.60%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.75%EV -6.63%E -2.10%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-13 23:50
Virgin Bet2.16I 46.30%NM 41.38%EV -8.91%E -4.13%K -7.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -15.44%E -5.15%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -8.11%E -2.62%K -3.86%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-13 23:50
Winamax (DE)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -9.33%E -4.34%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -11.21%E -3.56%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -6.63%E -2.10%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-13 23:35
SportsBet2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -9.33%E -4.34%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -9.80%E -3.06%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.11%E -2.62%K -3.86%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-13 23:35
Betway2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -9.33%E -4.34%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -9.80%E -3.06%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.11%E -2.62%K -3.86%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-13 23:35
Everygame2.15I 46.51%NM 42.07%EV -9.33%E -4.34%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.27%EV -9.80%E -3.06%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.66%EV -9.59%E -3.15%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-13 23:34
888sport2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -9.33%E -4.34%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -9.80%E -3.06%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.07%E -3.69%K -5.54%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-13 23:40
Mr Green (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -9.33%E -4.34%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -9.80%E -3.06%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.07%E -3.69%K -5.54%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-13 23:39
888sport (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -9.33%E -4.34%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -9.80%E -3.06%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.07%E -3.69%K -5.54%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-13 23:39
BoyleSports2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.33%E -4.34%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -11.07%E -3.69%K -5.54%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-13 23:35
Ladbrokes (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.33%E -4.34%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -11.07%E -3.69%K -5.54%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-13 23:35
Coral2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.33%E -4.34%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -11.07%E -3.69%K -5.54%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-13 23:34
Ladbrokes (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.33%E -4.34%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -11.07%E -3.69%K -5.54%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-13 23:35
Neds2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.33%E -4.34%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -11.07%E -3.69%K -5.54%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-13 23:35
LowVig.ag2.14I 46.73%NM 42.55%EV -9.75%E -4.56%K -8.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -6.98%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -9.59%E -3.15%K -4.68%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-13 04:25
BetOnline.ag2.14I 46.73%NM 42.55%EV -9.75%E -4.56%K -8.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -6.98%E -2.12%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -9.59%E -3.15%K -4.68%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-13 04:24
Sky Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -11.44%E -5.45%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.44%EV -11.07%E -3.69%K -5.54%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-13 23:34
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -11.44%E -5.45%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -12.62%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.44%EV -11.07%E -3.69%K -5.54%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-13 23:35
Winamax (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 42.66%EV -13.55%E -6.61%K -12.90%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.67%EV -14.03%E -4.60%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.67%EV -9.59%E -3.15%K -4.68%G +0.000%14.4%2026-04-13 23:35
Tipico (DE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -15.66%E -7.83%K -15.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -4.16%E -1.22%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -5.15%E -1.61%K -2.34%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-13 23:45
Unibet (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 43.45%EV -15.66%E -7.83%K -15.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.59%EV -11.21%E -3.56%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.97%EV -11.07%E -3.69%K -5.54%G +0.000%15.1%2026-04-13 23:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 41.54%EV -15.66%E -7.83%K -15.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.69%EV -15.44%E -5.15%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 30.77%EV -19.97%E -7.40%K -11.75%G +0.000%20.4%2026-04-13 23:49
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (3)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.64%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.26%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.10%1.1%2026-04-13 23:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.64%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.26%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.10%1.1%2026-04-13 23:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.64%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.26%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.10%1.1%2026-04-13 23:55