Language:English
La Serena v Ñublense
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
La Serena (Local)
Prediction 38.41%2.60fair odd
EV -1.27%
Edge -0.496%
Kelly -0.811%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.57
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.26%38.39%38.54%39.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.392.402.5744.44%41.78%41.67%38.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ñublense (Visit)
Prediction 33.14%3.02fair odd
EV -0.589%
Edge -0.196%
Kelly -0.294%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.04%33.01%33.08%34.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.772.773.0038.46%36.09%36.10%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.45%3.52fair odd
EV -3.28%
Edge -0.964%
Kelly -1.37%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.45%28.60%28.38%31.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.193.203.4035.09%31.31%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: La Serena (Local): 38.41%; Ñublense (Visit): 33.14%; Draw: 28.45%. For Ñublense (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.02. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.00, with an expected value of -0.589%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.57I 38.91%NM 37.31%EV -1.27%E -0.496%K -0.811%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 34.49%EV -7.88%E -2.83%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.20%EV -3.28%E -0.964%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-06 12:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.39%EV -3.96%E -1.59%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.87%EV -3.24%E -1.11%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 28.74%EV -4.98%E -1.49%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -3.96%E -1.59%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -10.53%E -3.90%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.12%E -1.85%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-06 14:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.69%EV -4.35%E -1.75%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.88%EV -2.91%E -0.993%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.39I 29.50%NM 28.42%EV -3.56%E -1.05%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.93%EV -4.73%E -1.91%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.12%EV -5.89%E -2.07%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -7.54%E -2.32%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.93%EV -4.73%E -1.91%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.12%EV -5.89%E -2.07%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -7.54%E -2.32%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-06 15:14 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.93%EV -4.73%E -1.91%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.12%EV -5.89%E -2.07%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -7.54%E -2.32%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.93%EV -4.73%E -1.91%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.12%EV -5.89%E -2.07%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -7.54%E -2.32%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.58%EV -4.73%E -1.91%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.29%EV -7.22%E -2.58%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-30 15:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.58%EV -4.73%E -1.91%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.29%EV -7.22%E -2.58%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-30 15:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.58%EV -4.73%E -1.91%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.29%EV -7.22%E -2.58%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-30 15:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.58%EV -4.73%E -1.91%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.29%EV -7.22%E -2.58%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-30 15:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.58%EV -4.73%E -1.91%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.29%EV -7.22%E -2.58%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-30 15:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -5.88%E -2.40%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.18%EV -5.56%E -1.95%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.23%EV -4.70%E -1.40%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.81%EV -5.88%E -2.40%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.69%EV -8.87%E -3.23%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.50%EV -7.54%E -2.32%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-06 15:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.44I 40.98%NM 38.18%EV -6.27%E -2.57%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 33.76%EV -8.54%E -3.09%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.06%EV -5.55%E -1.67%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-03 00:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.16%EV -7.04%E -2.91%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.98%EV -7.22%E -2.58%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.41I 41.49%NM 38.03%EV -7.42%E -3.08%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -8.87%E -3.23%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-06 15:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -7.80%E -3.25%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -7.22%E -2.58%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -6.12%E -1.85%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-06 15:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.62%EV -7.80%E -3.25%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 32.87%EV -6.55%E -2.32%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.52%EV -7.54%E -2.32%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.80%E -3.25%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -8.87%E -3.23%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -6.12%E -1.85%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-04 02:04 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -7.80%E -3.25%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.87%E -3.23%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-06 15:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -7.80%E -3.25%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.53%EV -13.84%E -5.32%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-06 14:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -7.80%E -3.25%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.53%EV -13.84%E -5.32%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-06 14:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -7.80%E -3.25%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.53%EV -13.84%E -5.32%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-06 14:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -7.80%E -3.25%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.53%EV -13.84%E -5.32%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-06 14:30 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.34%EV -8.57%E -3.60%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.29%EV -3.90%E -1.35%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.37%EV -6.12%E -1.85%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-06 15:18 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.34%EV -8.57%E -3.60%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.29%EV -3.90%E -1.35%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.37%EV -6.12%E -1.85%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-06 15:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.71%EV -8.57%E -3.60%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.25%EV -13.18%E -5.03%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.04%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-06 14:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.57%EV -8.57%E -3.60%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.12%EV -10.53%E -3.90%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.32%EV -13.23%E -4.34%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-30 15:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.51%EV -9.73%E -4.14%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.47%EV -2.25%E -0.761%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.02%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-06 15:14 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.30%EV -9.73%E -4.14%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.84%EV -3.90%E -1.35%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-06 15:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.93%EV -9.73%E -4.14%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.55%EV -3.90%E -1.35%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -11.81%E -3.81%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.72%EV -9.73%E -4.14%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.70%EV -10.53%E -3.90%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.57%EV -6.12%E -1.85%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-06 15:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.63%EV -9.73%E -4.14%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -8.87%E -3.23%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.37%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-06 15:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.56%EV -9.73%E -4.14%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -10.53%E -3.90%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.88%EV -7.54%E -2.32%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.45%EV -9.73%E -4.14%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -8.87%E -3.23%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.69%EV -10.39%E -3.30%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.39%EV -9.73%E -4.14%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.41%EV -10.53%E -3.90%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.19%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-06 15:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.35%EV -9.73%E -4.14%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -0.589%E -0.196%K -0.294%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.62%EV -18.92%E -6.64%K -10.23%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.68%EV -9.73%E -4.14%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.80%EV -10.53%E -3.90%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.52%EV -14.66%E -4.89%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-30 15:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.68%EV -9.73%E -4.14%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.80%EV -10.53%E -3.90%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.52%EV -14.66%E -4.89%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-30 15:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -11.65%E -5.06%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -8.87%E -3.23%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -11.81%E -3.81%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-06 15:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -11.65%E -5.06%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -8.87%E -3.23%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -11.81%E -3.81%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-06 15:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -11.65%E -5.06%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -8.87%E -3.23%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -11.81%E -3.81%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-06 15:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.66%EV -11.65%E -5.06%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.55%EV -12.19%E -4.60%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-06 15:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.64%EV -11.65%E -5.06%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -7.22%E -2.58%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.62%EV -14.66%E -4.89%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-06 15:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.64%EV -11.65%E -5.06%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -7.22%E -2.58%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.62%EV -14.66%E -4.89%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-06 15:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.16%EV -13.57%E -6.03%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.47%EV -7.22%E -2.58%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.37%EV -14.66%E -4.89%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.03%EV -13.57%E -6.03%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 33.52%EV -13.18%E -5.03%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.45%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 38.84%EV -13.57%E -6.03%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 32.97%EV -12.19%E -4.60%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.19%EV -11.81%E -3.81%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-09-06 15:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.96% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.11% | 1.0% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.96% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.11% | 1.0% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.96% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.11% | 1.0% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.15% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.83% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.02% | 1.4% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.22% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.36% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42% | 2.0% | 2026-09-06 15:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.53% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.63% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.84% | 2.0% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |